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Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. Message Board

argyle46 51 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 23, 2015 7:19 PM Member since: Feb 14, 2005
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  • argyle46 argyle46 Jan 23, 2015 7:19 PM Flag

    The article said GMCR was moving it's operations in "the spring" and therefore I also said it would have absolutely no impact on the current quarter. It likely will have no or minimal impact on the current quarter either. However, I have learned in the past when a company has most of it's sales from one customer...as do a lot of small companies that do business with Walmart...it is best to get out before that business goes away. I just can't see JVA being asked to FedEx millions of pounds of coffee beans to Switzerland.

    I see significant and undue risk in the months ahead if my analysis is correct. I doubt JVA can make up 60% of it's sales selling to specialty brands. One positive is that margins may be expanded because they won't be squeezed by the big fish but with declining revenue, I don't see the stock price rising appreciably anytime soon.

    Even if they do maintain business with GMCR, this is a hated company. What is their P/E going to be after today's earnings, 8? 7? The stock should have closed much higher today and yet it was bodyslammed. Again.

  • Reply to

    This will be over $6.00 soon

    by thestockinvestor Jan 23, 2015 10:06 AM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jan 23, 2015 4:30 PM Flag

    Nobody cares.

  • Reply to

    So GMCR isn't leaving

    by thestockinvestor Jan 23, 2015 11:13 AM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jan 23, 2015 4:27 PM Flag

    Also, the Gordons have been saying for 9 months now that sales are slipping because they "think" a "certain" buyer is holding off purchases due to high coffee prices. I believed it for one quarter, I even fell for it a second quarter, but this is ridiculous. I see no proof that GMCR has been slowing it's purchase of coffee for almost an entire year due to high prices. They have cut back buying from JVA, that much appears certain.

  • Reply to

    So GMCR isn't leaving

    by thestockinvestor Jan 23, 2015 11:13 AM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jan 23, 2015 4:21 PM Flag

    I showed you the press release that GMCR is moving it's green coffee buying operations to Switzerland in the spring. I also stated that I did not know whether that would materially impact JVA but I wasn't going to wait around if & when sales fall off the cliff. Andrew Gordon bought 2 months before GMCR made that announcement. Also, it is no surprise the Gordons made no mention of this in their 10K filing as they never tell anyone what is going on with the company. There is far more money to be made elsewhere and I am happily out of this pos.

  • Reply to

    AAPL in a Descending Triangle

    by dr_klumps Jan 20, 2015 5:59 PM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jan 20, 2015 7:10 PM Flag

    Looks like a triple bottom to me.

  • Reply to

    Never ever forget---

    by jayhardy Jan 10, 2015 10:39 PM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jan 15, 2015 7:56 PM Flag

    CEMP's chart looks like it wants to fall off a cliff. It may get caught up in the overall market correction,

  • argyle46 argyle46 Jan 9, 2015 11:45 AM Flag

    Nice try. Your profile was created today. Now you are hiding behind multiple aliases. This conversation is over, psychopath.

  • argyle46 argyle46 Jan 9, 2015 1:30 AM Flag

    And I made 350% today alone on AAPL options. Some trades work, some don't. Good luck to you.

  • argyle46 argyle46 Jan 8, 2015 7:29 PM Flag

    That is the point, common. JVA management provides absolutely no updates with the company. Even when they are getting additional licensing revenues from new coffee shops in China, they never released a PR and instead buried that fact deep inside one of their filings. If management doesn't want to tell anyone what's going on or make even a feeble attempt at defending the stock price, it was time for me to move on. Andrew Gordon's insider purchase was encouraging but that was 2 months before the GMCR announcement. If he would make another purchase then I would probably buy back in. In any case, there are lots of other ways of making money instead of holding this forever.

  • Reply to

    Argyle46 being torn apart on JVA MB

    by kisko_emp Dec 31, 2014 2:24 PM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jan 8, 2015 7:17 PM Flag

    Just being honest. The psychopath above needs to move on with his life and start researching companies instead of spending all his time researching and stalking me. I have moved on to better investments and don't waste my time researching people that adds zero value to my portfolio.

  • Reply to

    my argyle46 fear

    by kisko_emp Jan 7, 2015 2:24 PM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jan 8, 2015 7:01 PM Flag

    It is for tax purposes. I will repost it below. This will not impact earnings for the current quarter or perhaps even next quarter. It is possible though unlikely this could be positive for JVA because in the segment below, a GMCR spokeswoman says they hope to move several buyers from the US to the new Swiss entity in Spring 2015. The announcement was made in mid December but given the total lack of information from JVA management, I doubt they will even address whether this is an issue. With GMCR comprising 60% of JVA's sales, it is far too risky imo to hold JVA if GMCR abandons buying from JVA completely next year. As stated though, GMCR is hoping to move some buyers to Switzerland so that may involve JVA somehow but to me, the odds seem low of that happening.

    Dec 15, 2014

    "Keurig Green Mountain, the largest US coffee retailer by value, is moving most of its coffee buying operations to Switzerland, following in the footsteps of its competitors

    Keurig Green Mountain Inc (NASDAQ:GMCR), the Waterbury, Vermont-based specialty coffee retailer, will be moving most of its US coffee buying operations to Lausanne, Switzerland. The company behind the famous K-cups will be going global in its coffee purchasing, following in the footsteps of its rivals who have already shifted their trading operations overseas.

    A company spokeswoman told Reuters that the shifting of the company’s trading operations to Switzerland will establish the largest US coffee retailer as a “global beverage player” by value.

    She added that “the core of our green bean coffee procurement for our global manufacturing operations will take place in Switzerland.”

    Green Mountain built a new entity this fall by the name of Keurig Trading GmbH in Switzerland. The company hopes to move several buyers from the US to the new Swiss entity in Spring 2015, the spokeswoman said. However, the company’s purchasing operations in Canada will continue to function as usual."

  • Reply to

    Argyle46 being torn apart on JVA MB

    by kisko_emp Dec 31, 2014 2:24 PM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jan 7, 2015 4:45 PM Flag

    Well I'm a millionaire from my investments and retired 20 years early so go ahead and obsess about me on message boards. I don't care. You really should seek psychological help.

  • Reply to

    my argyle46 fear

    by kisko_emp Jan 7, 2015 2:24 PM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jan 7, 2015 2:53 PM Flag

    I already sold this weeks ago you possessed idiot. GMCR announced they are moving their coffee buying operations to Switzerland in 2015 as I reported a while back. That doesn't mean they will cut back buying from JVA but I'm not taking any chances. I recommend you see a psychologist for your stalking and obsessive behavior. Have a nice life and leave me alone.

  • argyle46 argyle46 Jan 1, 2015 4:37 PM Flag

    Hedge funds were selling their winners to lock in big gains this year. That boosts their annual performance numbers. This is a very short-sighted approach but it is reality.

    There is a possibility that Friday could be a huge up day for the markets and AAPL. Selling pressure is now off and actually, buying pressure will return. Hedge funds will want to buy AAPL as cheap as possible and get it on the books early for 2015. While charts look pretty awful right now, I think Friday could be a blockbuster day. We shall see.

  • Reply to

    Small Cap rally

    by argyle46 Dec 22, 2014 6:14 AM
    argyle46 argyle46 Dec 27, 2014 4:47 PM Flag

    I'm just looking at the overall index which flashed the bullish signal on December 16. The last time this signal was given was in January 2012. It doesn't mean the index will go straight up, but it does mean that the long term sentiment has changed from bearish to bullish which, over the long run, means it should generally continue higher. That is why I believe 2015 will be the year of the small caps. This should generally bode well for stocks that comprise the Russell 2000 index.

  • Reply to

    Small Cap rally

    by argyle46 Dec 22, 2014 6:14 AM
    argyle46 argyle46 Dec 26, 2014 6:48 PM Flag

    Markets had a big selloff at the end of the day.....AGAIN...and IWM gave up some gains but all indications are 2015 will be led by a small cap rally. Small caps have consolidated for 9 months and it's time for them to break out. I think 2015 will be the year of the small caps.

  • Reply to

    Cantor Fitzgerald says $150

    by cdmarulestheearth Dec 25, 2014 8:13 AM
    argyle46 argyle46 Dec 25, 2014 9:11 AM Flag

    correction Cantor's estimate was $111 when AAPL was $71 post-split.

  • Reply to

    Cantor Fitzgerald says $150

    by cdmarulestheearth Dec 25, 2014 8:13 AM
    argyle46 argyle46 Dec 25, 2014 9:10 AM Flag

    Canton has always had higher estimates on AAPL. He had a PT of $777 when the stock was $500 ($111/$71 pre-split) and was the only analyst that was right. Nobody else was even close. I'd say $150 is conservative.

  • Reply to

    150$ oil triggered the great recession..

    by osulincat Dec 23, 2014 6:44 PM
    argyle46 argyle46 Dec 23, 2014 7:25 PM Flag

    High oil prices didn't cause the great recession, the Fed did. The Fed raised rates 17 straight times from 2004-2006 and even accelerated their rate increases to pop the housing bubble. What the Fed did not understand is that each rate increase/decrease takes 12-15 months to work it's way through the economy and show up in economic data. They didn't wait and WAY overshot the mark. Greenspan did the same thing in 1998-2000, he raised interest rates to pop the NASDAQ bubble which would have popped anyway but he made the problem far worse.

    Recessions have been caused when the Fed starts raising rates too fast without pausing. When THIS stock market rises out of control and the Fed raises rates to pop it, then it will only be a matter of time before another recession is looming. Hopefully Yellen has learned these lessons from the devastating mistakes of Greenspan and Bernanke and won't make them again.

  • Reply to

    Double Top

    by p1sorell Dec 22, 2014 4:17 PM
    argyle46 argyle46 Dec 22, 2014 6:39 PM Flag

    Wrong. While I agree that the market may pull back tomorrow after hitting 18,000, I expect it to explode to new highs on Wednesday and continue afterwards. The chart is very strong and bullish.

    Tomorrow, GDP numbers come out at 8:30 and will almost certainly be revised higher. The reason for a pullback tomorrow is that the GDP numbers will be SO good, fears about an earlier Fed rate hike may cause a 1 day selloff....or oil may fall so much tomorrow on a stronger dollar and reignite fears of some perile that nobody really knows about. In any case, the chart on the market is so bullish right now, 18,000 will be taken out sometime this week and break all resistance.

SPR
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