We all know there are huge volumes of April $7 strike call options traded and huge July $6 strike put option traded so far. Although there are numerous possibilities in terms of what really its implications. But it seems the most likely possibility in general is that Sir Woodford had initiated both these two large pools of option trading:
He bought those calls funded by his selling of those puts since he believes the good data are coming and his financial strength behind his commitment or conviction of going long NWBO on the context of knowing that he would had a major financing deal with the company , i.e., the recently announced $40 million deals with the company.
On the other hand, the shorts thought that the company was in desperation of needing funding to fund its existing L trials, the future D trials, etc., and did not believe the company could get any favorable deal with anybody. They initiated those call selling (to Woodford, etc. unfortunately for the shorts) hoping to pocket the premiums while driving the price down further. Again the shorts thought the price would further decline by July after the ASCO hype withered, so they took the bite of those July put selling (from Woodford, etc.) and ended up of bought those puts.
Now, we have known Sir Woodford has been winning the battle as the share price steadily and continually appreciated: he has been either exercising his deep in money call options or simply closing those profitable call operation as the shorts have to deliver those shares to him via either buying in the open market at increasingly higher price as each day passes by.
The irony of the situation is that the currently share price appreciation may be actually in part (or a major part) is fueled by the shorts. LOL!
Of course, because of the dynamics shift in favor longing the stock, more and more retail investors have firmed in the support of the long institutions represented by Sir Woodford.
Again, it has shown the true potential of DCVax-L which Germans seem grasp it very well. The whole world will soon get it right! Thanks.
There have been nothing but improved fundamentals. Knee-jerking retail investors should be weeded out like Turtle and the like, let alone the ones who have made the wrong bet such as Pyrr, RKmatter, etc.
After all those shares have been raked from those swing traders, and call sellers, the market has no way to go but up!
Simply put my friend, if nwbo stock price were not at $70, you might be right. We are sitting at $8, and how can anyone think there are too much enthusiasms. I think we are still lack of enthusiasms, let alone the media coverage which seems to just begin!
Great data for a patient population which has never responded to any treatment. 50% improvement of OS, which is unheard of !
Before any mention of nwbo preceded with the word of controversial, since last a couple weeks ago, it has abandoned that word. Today's article is yet another prove:
" Novartis' 'megablockbuster' heart drug LCZ696 wins another rave preview
April 23, 2015 By John Carroll
Readying itself for what looks like a blockbuster victory lap in the cardiovascular field, Novartis ($NVS) has notched boasting rights for its heart drug LCZ696, gaining recognition in the U.K. as a "promising innovative medicine" that could be made available to patients ahead of formal marketing approval.
Novartis Pharma Chief David Epstein
The Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency, or MHRA, granted the designation earlier today as an opening move toward early access. And they were moved by the PARADIGM-HF Phase III study, which demonstrated some clear benefits in reducing cardio deaths.
The MHRA isn't going to get any kickback from Novartis. Novartis pharma chief David Epstein has already dubbed this drug a "megablockbuster" in the making. And Thomson Reuters just days ago estimated 2019 sales for this drug at $3.73 billion.
The stellar data and a breakthrough reputation on both sides of the Atlantic helped chill expectations for Amgen's ($AMGN) newly approved heart treatment Corlanor (ivabradine). Even some concerns about a potential link to Alzheimer's--recently outlined by French researchers--has barely shaken the faith for LCZ696.
Last month the MHRA selected Merck's Keytruda, the closely-watched PD-1 checkpoint inhibitor, as the pioneer therapy to win early market access in the U.K. Northwest Biotherapeutics ($NWBO), meanwhile, won the first PIM last fall for its cancer vaccine DCVax.
"Despite widespread use of available treatments and implementation of NICE heart failure guidelines, outcomes remain poor for those diagnosed, with around 60% dying from heart failure within five years," says Hugh O'Dowd, the general manager at Novartis UK & Ireland. "" ...
I 100% agree with your stance, and I have never sold a single share since German HE news came out last year. Good luck to you and all who dare (will) hold their shares until our share price is at least on par with its peers'!
Not only we are better in various important aspects such as higher targeted patient populations, more intended treating varieties of cancer types, more advanced and simpler manufacturing process, and more favorable benefit/risk ratio, etc., we are well undervalued compared to our peers!
Now, it has been revealed that Cart-T is dead in any efforts to treat solid tumors!
Man, the sky is blue and indeed very blue for NWBO!
more than 50% improvement of OS on such patient population is unprecedented!
Yes this group is truly the sickest of the sick, but they can live more than 50% longer. Never ever have heard such great results!
Thanks. It was beautifully aired with questions answered in a concise way! The end part is interesting that the host specifically asked what is the stock ticker! Great, not expect better than that!
Juno has more than 9 times the market cap of NWBO and is only in phase I trial and it targets only 10% of patient population and it has severe side effects!
Those wall street idiots have swarmed JUNO will be one of modern magics that will ultimately turn out to be just a larghing stock!
1st interim results will be announced any time from now to June, followed 2nd interim results and final results!
Hey, please do a simple comparison. Then you will see it is really natural for nwbo's share price to be traded in the range of $30 ~ $80 just on par with its peers!
More good things are coming in our way, which is confirmed by desperate short commissioned posters spread around various boards!
How those shorts can find ten millions or even twenty millions of shares to cover their butts as almost all shares available have been shorted?
Yes, correction long overdue. Just think if I were in shorts' position, what would I be going to do as their base for shorting has been evaporated now as funding will be never an issue while numerous events are unfolding including the potential success of L from interim analysis which could happen any time now?
The only way is that the earlier the shorts covering their butts the better.
More than 1/3 April Call options have been either exercised or closed, and the trend continues in a steady way!
These data if confirmed in Ph3 trial would set the bar very high, and lots of the current Wall Street darlings would be disappear due to inferior! From that it would be a smooth sailing to $100 as the first step!
It is indeed beautiful data, and more to come!