Let shorts to spin whatever they want. Hold and buy more while waiting for next part of news!
Then, the internet providers can pick up the former Netflix's business providing streaming business to their customers!
Just a gesture, Netflix will be done!
Of course another confirmatory trial is required, but it would be not the same confirmatory trial for approval. If Tecemotide is approved on condition (i.e., another confirmatory trial), the stock price will be significantly appreciated no matter Oncothyreon has a partnership or buyout deal or not.
Even without new data, I still did not understand why Merck KGaa had not sought conditional approval. One stock (chtp) I invested last week had overwhelming recommendation for approval from FDA arranged expert panel. Since only one vote against it (out of 16), and it was the second time the panel recommend for approval, I don't think FDA would act again to not approve it (last year it issued a CRL against a weak panel recommendation for approval). The circumstance in the case of chtp) is that FDA had strongly asked for another trial for approval, but the company seemed to just ignore it and sought approval for the second time (the company did have another trial on going which may serve as confirmatory trial if FDA approves it next month on condition).
With the data we have now, it has always puzzled me why Merck KGaa has not sought conditional approval for Tecomotide to treat lung caner patients!
The numbers I threw out are those I genuinely considered fair value for both tecemotide and ONT-10 combined. But yes, if that is going to happen, do expect the stock price goes much higher than that in the 2s range.
It's hard to think why Merck KGaa is not going buy now when it can pay less than later (a few more year down the load when it may have to pay much higher if everything goes as planned or expected).
My youngest son uses to say everything got reason! I believe it and I also want to say everything changes as time changes.
1) Everyone knew Merck KGaa will launch RESTART anytime now, but the importance is what is in it, any detail which may be new than what we have known (a trial like START except for only concurrent patients). My personal hope is that Merck KGaa drop this plan and instead seeks conditional approval with FDA with new data we have not known (from its secret Australian, and Japanese trials, ect.) concerning biomarker, MOA, etc.
Even if the trial goes with no surprise as we all knew, a clause or measure which can guarantee early stop for efficacy (not as the same as that of START trial) will be welcome.
2) Kirkman finishes ONT-10 Phase I/Ib trial with compelling evidence, either immune response, MOA, or any efficacy equivalence, and starts (or maybe already start) negotiation with Merck KGaa for partnership or buyout; if Merck KGaa refuses, then immediately make a public announcement for seeking potential partnership or buyout; and
3) Oncothyreon should conduct a Phase II study of Ont-10 to seek accelerated approval for Ont-10 for ovarian cancer ASAP if 2) fails.
The best way I see it for all concerned parties, the patients, Merck KGaa, Oncothyreon, and us shareholders is
a) Merck KGaa buys Oncothyreson now for $20 - $30;
b) Launch RESTART immediately for lung cancer (drop out this one will be one of the dummies things any company can do as its success rate is more than 80%); and
c) Launch ONT-10 Phase III for ovarian cancer (yes bypass phase II) in second half of this year.
It will get there. That's how this capitalist market works!
wondering how Yahoo makes decision on which article to stay or ignore?
Forbes article by Matt Schifrin today at 1:06 Pm appeared and disappeared quickly. The article is entitled "Guru Pans: 14 Stocks To Steering Clear in 2014, including Netflix.
Anyone interested can simply google it.
Thanks. I am going to collect a small amount of shares today, probably 10,000 for future payout of $3.1 dollar. It will be put in my retirement accounts.
It is just like to buy an option, and the risk is only a few dimes for potential $3.1 dollar.