All depends on time value. I like the options of DDD because they are weekly, so time value is small. It lets me sell a call for 25-30 cents for 5 days of life, which is a great return without locking me into a strike for a long period.
If they execute their plan, they should do very well going forward. They have purchased some great smaller companies that are going to start to pay dividends with the tech they bring, they have some major distribution networks set up in areas 3D printing will only grow, and they have stated they are going to start to put their revenues towards profits vs acquisitions. Its all good for a longer term hold at this point. Its going to bounce around, and I will take advantage of these to sell calls to make some cash, but in the end its a keeper barring some disaster.
The fact that it didn't collapse on a miss is huge. They had good reasons for their earnings miss all related to the future. Now they are going to consolidate those purchases and going forward they should do extremely well. I removed my puts and have added to my number of shares. I will continue to sell calls but only when technical show a correction or a flat period.
Glad I got my protective puts. Past 28.5 I make dollar for dollar as my stock value falls. Levels off next week, sell the puts, buy more stock at a lower basis. Long term these acquisitions will pay off.
We will find out but usually a quarter release means lower prices regardless of what they report unless they are masters of projection manipulation like Apple is.
Wont make any difference to me, I bought protective puts yesterday and as a result if it tanks I make a boatload of cash. It will do fine long term so I wont sell the stock, I would add to my position at a lower price, reduce my basis, and continue to write calls. Week of Feb 15 I cleared over 10K cash in writing calls. Win all the way around. More than one way to make money in a market.
Shorts always bash, some even make things up, These boards are full of amateur shorts and maybe a few pros that know some idiots take what they read here seriously. But in the end the report matters, and if they come in ahead of their projections they will do well longer term. But even if it takes a hit, there is money to be made on the long side there. Look at SSYS, it fell to the low 50s, but if you had bought there once it stabilized its up almost 10 points from there.
And you always have the wonderful feeling of a squeeze if things do turn around and shorts are trapped.
That's my point. DDD is trading on expectations of revenue growth, not actual revenue growth. This is fraught with a lot of doe eyed investors that expect them to blow away projections, and that's always in the eye of the beholder. To me DDD is likely setting up for a downside move on Thursday, and I will prepare for this eventuality. Longer term, as you say, its irrelevant. When a stock is at 60 or more does a purchase price of 33 or 28 really make much difference?
So far just about every large investment firm has moved their price target for DDD down, which is not where we want to be. You cant ignore this, they have far more resources than anyone on this board has, and are doing channel checks constantly. I am not saying longer term its not heading way up, but this quarter has a lot of new acquisitions and as such its an unknown. So just be aware we could have some negative events Thursday.
Its just another stock recommendation company, uses crowdsourcing. Means more a popularity contest than real analysis.
But I do agree with you in that DDD could be much higher in a few years, especially if their metal printing works. That's where the money is.
You have to remember that all technical analysis is just looking at the herd instinct of Wall Street. Its all based on price and volume, and when everyone starts to pile in you want to pile in also as the price will go up. It may not hold though.
I always say Fundamentals tell you what stock to buy, Technicals tell you when to buy it.
I went the opposite way and sold 32 calls Tuesday expiring today. That was a sweet profit for a 4 day week. That's the great thing about DDD, not only is it in a potentially great market and potentially bottoming out, it also has those really nice 1 week options so I am not paying for tons of time value or having my stock tied up for months. I do this every week and so far I have not had to worry about it except twice. Even then I simply bought back and rolled up the strike, so at least I break even or even make a small profit.
However, this week is quarterly report, and I don't want to be stuck if I need to make some drastic moves if it pulls another SSYS, especially since I will be on a plane all day Thursday. So I will be buying puts Tuesday or Wednesday just in case and not writing any calls in the event it goes gangbusters.
I may be late on this, it just crossed my news bug. But apparently the WHO has approved the CONX ebola test and its due to start in a few weeks. How ironic.
If the Ebola scare had not taken place, all would probably be happy with the buyout price. But it did, and after they had signed the deal, so you are stuck with the uncomfortable issue that the buyout price is less than the previous trading price.
Its just ironic. This company has always been cursed with unfortunate timing. But as Shaft posted, their quarter was again fairly lousy, so take what you can get.
Totally agree with that, if this quarter holds I think all their acquisitions will start kicking in and they will have subsequent improvement in further quarterly reports.
I agree although I think the possibility of it heading south Thursday are pretty high. At this time I continue to write covered calls, that has been a goldmine. However, if it breaks out I will likely wait for it to settle out before writing more. I will be buying protective puts just in case.
I have great expectations that 3D printing will be a great investment long term, and I like the industrial focus of 3D systems. However, they have purchased a lot of smaller companies, and as SSYS pointed out, analysts are often too optimistic. So I have my doubts that this quarterly report is going to be on target, in fact I fully anticipate a miss. With this will come Barrons prophecy of some 15-20 a share as it will take a major dump. That would be the time to simply load up. But if you have the stomach for it, simply average in and hold for a few years and see what happens. In the end it will do just fine. I would love to see them exceed their projections, in which Barrons can pound sand, but a wise investor prepares for the worst and if the best comes its just that much more sweeter.
Denny, who knows. Based on what happened to SSYS do you think it impossible for the same thing to happen to DDD next Thursday when they announce? I don't. I will lighten up going into report and buy protective puts under my remaining position until the dust clears. I will still have some 15K shares so if it moves up I make good money, if it heads south the puts protect my downside.