In a perfect world, and assuming AMD's best optimistic estimates, AMD is currently overpriced by 400^ and should be priced at $1. However, hope eternal suggests that if AMD actually earned 50 cents this year (10 times than they project) then AMD would be a $4 stock with a normal P/E ratio.
So, let's hear it for the longs who are convinced that AMD will earn 10 times its current best qtr. If that even happened to AMD, it would be the first time in 40 years AMD did NOT have to borroe more to stay alive.
But what do I know of this loser who is in effect, phasing out everything they are doing in favor of becoming a startup "custom design" chip company? As sargeant Shultz would say "I KNOW NUTTING! NUTTING!
You've heard of diamond cartels, right? Oil cartels, right? What can the super rich hide their money in as global economies collapse? Many entire countries have been forced to sell off their monstrous gold reserves. That action collapsed gold prices. So, who purchased all that gold? How much more of the trillion dollar gold reserves are in the process of being dumped? And exactly who is buying?
Gold is a truly UNIQUE metal. No other element can replace it. It's an essential element. And if a cartel can corner the market on an absolutely ESSENTIAL ELEMENT, do ya think they can charge any price they want? Well do ya punk?
Many claim that intel needs AMD to stay a struggling competitor to avoid intel being labeled a "monopoly" - and possibly face breakup. So, instead of AMD be DRIVEN out of business (by intel), what if AMD voluntarily exists, as AMD is doing right now? Doesn't that automatically make intel a monlopoly? If that is, in fact, what intel truly fears, we will all find out in the next few years.
A PROBLEM WITH A SOLUTION.
It's true that greed and cunning in 1928 led to the 29 crash, and again in 2008. The top 10% ripped off the lower 90% and the nation paid a big price for it. More incidents like those have been averted by a few SEC laws, by a few wars (which sent the nation into debt), and most recently, gigantic federal debt to pause the economic spiral.
HOWEVER, the spiral continues since WWII. The top 10% have ENORMOUS WEALTH at the cost born by the 90%. The wealthy simply don't care. They "have theirs". To hell with our nation. They can now rip off other countries. Or can they??
It doesn't work that way anymore. The inequity thing as already spread throughout Europe and beyond. When the 90% foundation collapses, the top always implodes. It's largely self correcting in the end. But generations have to pay the price during the long process.
iNTEL, the evil cunning, clever, brilliant beanie boys, are the top 10% shoveling in money anyway they can. They are the modern "money changers" who are methodically driving amd out of business. So, what might happen if amd is gone. Of course, you, being the common moron, believe that intel will make even more money, right? Not anymore. Now, intel has tons of deadly series competition scattered worldwide from Europe to Asia. So long as intel can strong arm markets, they are safe. But that can change in no time. Asians are NOT DUMB! They are probably smarter than intel and can show intel the window. Sadly, the entire intel greed process leaves America one notch weaker. America pays the price, A strong America needs many AMDs, not fewer. But the intel greed has succeeded and AMD is left as a new startup company.
Dear newbie gullible moron, jk4763. I realize your one day euphoria - even small euphoria still ahead (even greater late comer morons will likely "buy high and sell low". But you desperately need to know that I am NOT SHORT, if that makes any difference. I wrote a factual report, not a personal assault. You just MIGHT (highly highly unlikely) read it again. But, I know from history on this moron board that you will hold until you too will sell at a loss.
I know you hate bad news and stick your head in the sand to ignore it. But facts are facts. AMD is no growth company and it would be pleased as punch if it could "only" breakeven FOREVER!
Q1 was no exception. They hyped a negligible profit but squandered all that profit plus squandered another $20MM to restructure mounting debts - the same AMD story we've grown to know for the last 40 years of borrowing to stay alive.
And in case the flock of newbies here don't have a clue, AMD has tried to restructure the entire company several times before - and failed. AMD started as a FLASH company (no cpus). They failed at that and triied becoming an intel clone company, convinced that making 25% less than intel would still be better than losing money. CPU cloning failed too. So they tried their hand at designing their wn cpus and even dove all the way in with funding their own fab. Both of those new business models failed, and AMD I now contract fabbing - and losing money at that too. They then acquired ATI, convinced that they could avoid intel competition and make a buck. That too failed, partly because AMD designed graphics into the cpu chips, which destroyed their own ATI acquisition. The most recent totally new business model is "custom designing" chips for others. Their first stab at that - games chips - is such a low margin business, they burst forward with a tiny profit for a few months, not bad for a perpetual looser. Not bad at all. But sadly, that few months of pent up mania must and is dwindling too. They need something as big or bigger to avoid red ink again later this year. I know of nothing that big to avoid red ink again. The "custom design" business model is VERY speculative at best. The 40 year AMD history of big debt.
Can you yet see the pattern here? How more crystal clear can it be for you? Must someone hold you hand or buy you a crystal ball? AMD is a rapid trading casino stock with their TOP PRODUCT being that of hype.
It's a day trading stock, I keep saying. AMD has to slide from here. Their hay day consoles are over. They made it to breakeven. That's all. Yippie. But there's NOTHING remotely close to that big over the horizon. Even the very low margin (15%) consoles yield a genuine $20MM net loss for Q1. You can be sure that AMD went into bank negotiations to get refinanced by hyping the console sales, when in fact,consoles have to start dying from here. But AMD got refinanced. That saved AMD. But from here forward, you will see the same game repeat.
AMD shot from very low numbers before Q4 all the way to $4.50 and just days after Q1, they tanked. This time, they peaked to only $4.20 and will slide to $3. You've been used and hyped and conned again. This is no growth company. It's a deeply indebted break even at very best company only worth day trading with stop losses. You can make a fortune day trading, but not make a dime from 2014 through 2015 holding long.
The game is over. You've been had again.
Remember the deal? Morning exuberance will likely be used and abused by profit taking. AMD lost money in Q!, as their console sales and cpu decline for the rest of the year. This is just a day trading casino stock, capable of many fast small gains if stop loses are employed. +10% will likely not hold for the day. Just exuberance.
The fact that AMD's forward guidance is just treading water AT BEST, is not worth 2 cents. My opinion is also not worth 2 cents. I have nothing good to say about wory weed's con hype job. WHAT IS IMPORTANT tomorrow and for the days ahead, is what the many hype machines will say. People are VERY confused about AMD and they'll depend on others and watch what they stock does for confidence. That will be a BIG mistake if it goes up a little (like 10%) on hype momentum. The real object of the AMD game is always that of sucking you in and pocketing your money.
So AMD can go either way in the morning. They could just suck you dry immediately or suck you in a little more before taking you down. But be sure of one thing. You will be used and abused for sure.
The AMD fundamentals and growth potential is essentially zero this year and several more years beyond. They've got nothing big, and a lot to lose, period.
I've noted the surge of optimism this 3 day weekend. All moronic amateur optimism. That can all be dashed in a day based on a reality review of Wory Weed's double talk. He said abosolutely NOTHING worth banking on,
Here's your naive and gullible problem. You have no memory or knowledge of historical efforts to collectively attack intel's vast fab superiority. Samsung is dreaming and surely soaking many companies for MONEY. Here's the deal. IBM tried this log ago. IBM with their vast IP arsenal, tried to convince AMD and others to joing and leap over intel. Sounded good on paper. However, what really happened was that IBM made all the money and intel blew right past everyone as intel usually does. IBM gouged AMD for $100MM per year for many years and go nothing for it. The same thing happened before and after that. It's a day drean and a Samsung con job. This time, Samsung is going after some of that Global Foundries Arab money (and others). The outcome is almost written in stone.
iNTEL is already AT 14nm. They's be selling 14nm later this year. iNTEL is on the order of 2 years ahead of everyone else. Samsung will not make a dent in that time lead. The only dent will be a bulge in Samsung's hip pocket.
By the time GF and others start sellin 14nm, intel will be selling
If indeed Q1 is weakest, then why did AMD predict a 16% decline in Q2? This is "good"??
Don't cha love this combination picture? a - M -dace2 (the imposter) thinks I'm an AH and forever_amd thinks I'm someone that I am not but allows me to live rent-free between his ears 24/7.
So putting the two together, a "MORON-AH lives rent free between forever_amd ears". A perfect fit, huh?
If you believe in a 14% DOW gain this year 16K to 18K, you are in the very small minority. Most suggest that everyone has been euphoric so long as the feds pump one trillion of funny money a year Talk of a 7% contraction [16K down to 14.9K] this year is overdue as fed funny money contracts.
Thus, anyone offering a +7% return on loans - even high risk loans - would be doing well in 2014. That's one very good reason why high risk AMD restructured and got 7% interest loans. AMD has very little real collateral to back up those loans. Even I know of many 7% return small company [start upp] loans being closed. I know of many medium risk municipal bonds at 7%. I even know of one medium to low risk loan at 11-12% coming up in the next month (if you had $100K to $1MM to loan). More are coming under the new SEC "JOBS ACT" ruling where even start ups are getting funded at 5% to 6.5% offering little or no collateral. Some of these start ups are good bets in a down economy.
So, to those who have been riding a 5-year DOW recovery from the 8K bottom to 16K top today, it's not real to consider the last very atypical so called recovery of 14% per year. The historical DOW gain during the last 10 years is only 4.8% per year. THAT's much more real! Thus, even startups offering 5-7% are reasonable offers, especially if the DOW is headed 7% south.
But who here cares at all that nonsense? After all, the AMD gamble is headed up 20% or more, right? The fact that even AMD claims flat forward guidance in 2014, means nothing to you. You fully expect +20% to +80% this year.
EVERY SINGLE WORY WEED COMMENT IS MEANINGLESS. Allow me to show the hype game. AMD does this 100% of the time. It's what I call the legal con game. Watch the word game very carefully.
1. "as consoles RAMP [downward for sure] throughout 2014"
2. Embedded. "Consistent with our strategy to participate in a $9B ADDRESSIBLE market" means absolutely nothing.
3.Graphics cards is a bit player and can't save AMD. It's a small geek bandaide.
4. DENSE SERVERS. Hopes that the server industry will grow to "25% of the server industry by 2019". Be real! That's FIVE YEARS from now - 20 qtrs from now. It means NOTHING in 2014. Nothing! And is that 25% of the sever dollars or unit sales? Large server sales are HUGE HUGE HUGE. This is a twisted meaningless con game - all legal of course. But still a total con word game.
5. Sequential PC revenue growth in coming qtrs. Low end revenues? Which qtr? Inventory dumping?. Show me da MONEY - as in PROFITS! iNTEL has a real big say in this AMD "belief". This is a total meaningless legal statement which on a witness seat can be twisted many ways.
Facts is that AMD is delighted if they an avoid red ink. Q1 was red ink in shear dollars. Q1 predicts a wide margin hovering around breakeven. Note that even here, with one time charges removed, that alone could legally be taken as +3% on a net loss in Q2 guidence.
Wory Weed absolutely HAS to play these word games. His job depends on it. His troops need motivation to stay and not quit. And stkhldrs crave it. No really smart money will buy a word of this double talk con game. There's absolutely NO MEAT to any of his gullible [but legal!!] rhetoric, when you pick it apart one by one as if you were on the witness chair.
This is NOT a geek msg board. It's a stock board. So, when you "Beem" about a potential "10W" tablet chip, you dare not omit the intel competition, which has reliably and ROUTINELY driven all AMD CHIPS TO LOW END PRICING. That's the worry here.
So, to ignorantly talk only about "10 watts" is not even half the story. Anyone can undercloock any chip to 10 watts because clock speeds linearly decrease power consumption. That's a 30 year old trick. One must consider what AMD is really introducing to SMART OEM BUYERS. I strongly suggest that AMD will be selling low end cheap 28nm chips with no profits, while intel will be offering high profit, high clocked, 22nm (or even 14 nm) chips to slam another lid on AMD, as has been AMD's entire history. One must pay strict attention to MONEY, not geek junk or hype. FACTS are inescapable FACTS. And AMD has already informed you that even AMD doesn't anticipate making any MONEY going forward. Why would you refute AMD's own total HYPE? Why do you ignore intel as if they did not exist?
The fact is that revenues in Q1 were DOWN 12% over Q4 and in real money terms, AMD lost $20MM real dollars. Yes, AMD had one time restructuring debt costs in their $700MM restructuring process. But now debt interest rates are HIGHER going forward, not lower. Their debt is higher not lower. Their cash on hand is lower, not higher. All these things are facts, not hype.
Sure, AMD sold ~10MM game chips during the mania past period to eek out a tiny profit. But, the mania period is now passed and game chips will sharply decline going forward. If nothing new replaces falling game chips, red ink would certainly rear up again. AMD has a $1200 (RETAIL price) graphics card which might be a short term fad at high profit margins (perhaps even as high as $900 wholesale price and 50% margin). Unfortunately, geek graphics cards are niche, small volume units and cannot make up for declining games chips. This combination of games decline and card increases is a net minus or AMD.
AMD's mainstay business - desktop cpus - is still declining and everyone thinks it will continue as intel tic tocs forward with market share in all cpu segments.
So far, we have larger and higher interest debts going forward. We have a net decline in AMD's games/graphics business, a net marked decline in its mainstay cpu business, and some activity in SeaMicro servers being claimed. However, SeaMicro server business is incapable of making a significant difference because SeaMicro has many very high performance competitors, and intel has no intention in allowing SeaMicro to let SeaMicro be anything but a minor player. That's a strong opinion.
I'm left with AMD's own forward looking "+/- 3%" Q2 goal. That's about as useless as can be. It merely means that AMD hopes to hover around ZERO for another qtr. Waiting for AMD to make a real turnaround is AMD's 40 year story. This isn't "investment grade". AMD iis apparently very proud to just not hemorrhage red money - meaningless.
This leaves only day trading.
The USA +5% after hours AMD smell test fails. AMD reported nothing worth that much AH excitement. In actual fact, AMD took a $20MM loss when most morons expected as much as hundreds of millions profit from many millions o game chips. Germans aren't such mental midgets. Try the AMD A sian trades too. In fact, try any other country BUT the corrupt USA mkts.
Germans aren't as gullible as you morons. See how AMD traded on Friday. They don't celerate a beanie day. See if AMD is up 5% in Germany like the artificial aftermarket here on Thursday.
Very few, if even ONE of you has ever stood in the catbird's seat and worn CEO shoes. So let me try to get you to do that just once here.
Wory Weed has an enormous unimaginable responsibility to be as optimistic as humanly possible while avoiding any hint of over-optimism, of delusional, or lying, and the like. His number one duty and obligation to motivate everyone (meaning AMD troops, AMD customers, stockholders, etc) is job one. It's a delicate "believe-ability" issue quite like a believable witness before a court jury. If understated, you can lose a case. If you overstate, you also can lose the case. He MUST be an expert liar, a highly polished liar. That, he is. He's doing his job as required of him and all CEOs..
The opposite behavior - such as brutal honesty - would not only cost AMD thousands of employees, many lost OEM customers, and enormous stockholder losses, it would cost him LITERALLY MILLIONS OG PERSONAL INCOME DOLLARS. Brutal honesty would set literally everyone against him. It is refreshing to experience brutal honesty at times, but that's delusional too.
Even the very very best Hollywood actors are, in reality, highly polished liars. They are very "believable" actors play unreal parts, not that different than highly polished CEOs and politicians.
Cutting through all of that is OUR JOB, the jury. The FACT is that AMD once again LOST $20MM and no large growth, if ANY is likely. The FACT is that once again, AMD faces huge, if not insurmountable obstacles as it has for 4 decades. The verdict WILL BE RENDERED and soon. My verdict is in. AMD reains in big trouble. Hype don't cut it. AMD is an excellent day trading casino stock if stops are employed.
Just looking over the mania on this moron board is a good start. The analysts are feeding it too. That FACT is that AMD lost big money ($20MM). That's ALL that counts. That will be the official and recorded record on Yahoo, no matter how ya hype it. But 3 entire days of weekend hype will drawing in more moron money to be siphoned off Moday by smart money.
Fact two: CPU sales, even according to AMD are still headed more south next Q. This will hurt AMD significantly. And note how AMD slid one right past you. I've seen this many times before. AMD said "+/- 3%" guidence for Q2. They do that ALL THE TIME! Minus 3% is what you should pay attention to. That implies a likely slide of $50MM lower revenues even though DURING the Q AMD say things like "still within guidence". AMD will go considerably redder than a $20MM loss in Q2 almost cerainly.. This is such ultra familiar AMD hype!! AMD has become quite the Wall Street ultra EXPERT at word games for morons. And guess who's the 3 day moron this time? Are you trying hard yet. Grunt a little without flagellation please.