SeaMicro severs are a long long way off from making a meaningful contribution to AMD's bottom line, if any. Graphics typically adds nothing also. Only a few geek high end graphics chips make a buck. The lion's share of graphics is owned by others. Lap and desk cpus are all very low end and getting lower as intel has already claimed higher mkt share. Thus, AMD is afloat solely on games chips, which can, at best maintain volume for just a short time ahead before forward guidance absolutely must warn. There are just so many games possible, and the LARGE mkts were attacked first. Many small mkts are next. After that, game over.
So, forward guidance is everything. Listen VERY carefully to the hype parts. Analysts have not changed their opinions or 0.00 to 0.04 EPS and $4.00 as their target price - just days before reporting. Anyone expecting $4.50 - $5.00 will have to depend on frequent trading computers to methodically drive out some shorts and play their FT games - not a real stock price artifact of AMD itself.
In fact, even if AMD does indeed meet $0.19 EPS this YEAR (a very optimistic goal) to maintain a mere $4.00/share price, the P/E ratio will still be 21, which is not supportable in this stock mkt. AMD shoudl be a a $3.04/share stock with a 16 multiple and with $0.19 earnings per share.
The ONLY ONLY hope for maintaining higher than $4/sh would be not just a "surprise" new custom product (besides games), but a surprise new custom product at LEAST as big as their entire game consoles project. No one seems to be able to imagine what, if anything, that might be.
Thus, looking forward, we have an artificial FT game with shorts to temporarily play out. We have a more likely $4/sh price ahead. And, unless SeaMicro shocks the socks off of the world with a surprise projection, AMD has nothing to keep pace with intel's 14nm arsenal just weeks from launching.
Yes indeed. I too have been around this block for MANY DECADES, and have followed this loser for over 15 years. I think I know AMD inside out. BUT... I must agree with you. MASSIVE short interest (and growing too) absolutely has to be a new game that I don't understand well. What I know for sure is that over 90% of daily AMD trading is done by frequent trading computers. I suspect that such monster short interest is strongly connected to FT math algorithms. In other words, somehow FTing relies on very short term long and short positions to ride violent AMD excursions both ways. I do NOT believe that 111MM long term shorts are the real story. I think it could be a huge short dynamic which averages 111MM shares, or the like.
But, I still agree with your conspiracy concept. It's a casino game for sure. AMD would love to have everyone believe they are finally on their way to the sky after decades of being a loser. I see no chance of that happening. So, just in case I am correct, and that AMD is headed far south, then the massive and growing shorts have t right.
And yet, all that fabulous good news, if true, simply makes zero sense. There is a game sly afoot.
The SA writer, Sean Chandler is a teenage college student. Here's his horribly written dossier in his own words:
"I am a University of Hawaii college student studying Economics who has been trading the US Stock Exchange since 2011. Although this is a limited experience, my strong passion and active engagement has given me opportunity to gain vasts amounts of knowledge and experience over these few years. I am excited to be here on Seeking Alpha and I hope that I can continue to learn from others while offering my opinions as well. Invest on! "
It's riddled with very poor grammar as well as typos. The rest of his credentials add up to ZIP! How few even take a moment to learn how very very little he knows about AMD, the industry, or the mkts. This child has no clue, just like the gullible moron pumpers on this board.
WARNING!! Red flags are flying high. Seeking Alpha pays writers $10 per thousand clicks, plus another $150 per publication. I estimate that this one AMD pumper publishes 2-3 pages PER DAY. He brags that he sends his daily "news" updates to 22,000 each day. That alone computes to as much as $220 +$150 = $370 per publication. Thus, he gets $720/day to $1000/day - not counting however many from Yahoo reader clicks he gets per day. I would not be slightly surprised if he earns $2000/day for saying complete REPEAT GARBAGE about AMD. He has said not one thing that other pumpers have said many times before. In fact even HE has merely repeated himself at least 20 times during the last 10 days. He's got a racket going with Seeking Alpha company - a 150 man company. He's slipped himself into a really dumb company founded on nothing but gossip bloggers.
He's a horrible writer too (besides saying nothing new). If he does make $1000 to $2000/day, one cannot fault him for writing to the most gullible morons on the internet (AMD fans), and taking home $200K to $500K per year, while working from his bathroom.
More than that, I know of MANY MANY ways to drive traffic to his publications - in actual fact, if he wanted to pay a little to drive traffic there, he could drive as much as 100,000 clickers there PER DAY. He; doesn't sound smart enough to know how to do that. In fact, he's VERY VERY DUMB.
Read about how Seeking Alpha pays writers - all spelled out on Wikipedia. It even talks about paying writers another $500 per publication on top of the above payments. This clown can't lose. AMD followers are the most gullible morons on the internet. Wouldn't be shocked one bit if AMD pays him too. At the very LEAST, AMD happily feeds him their party lines.
You do the digging, don't ya? But that's precisely the kind of stuff that always seems to shock amateur AMD investors. AMD makes deals like that and for various reasons (like last year) GF nailed AMD for many hundreds of millions. AMD seems to always end up holding the bag. I'm starting to wonder if AMD is so dumb or so desperate that the Arabs are able to run circles around them. Here's one example.
AMD has no fabs as we know. AMD absolutely cannot trust having one and only one TSMC fab. That would be a blackmail waiting to happen. So, AMD absolutely MUST have a second source fab. The Abarbs surely know that. So, who else can AMD turn to? I know of no one who can pick up the ball, especially pick up the ball to race as fast as possible to 14nm. GF seems to be it. And so, having BEEN burned by AMD before (charging way too much for the AMD fabs), the Arabs are now getting even. If anything goes wrong at AMD (game sales drop or cpus drop of the chiff), AMD will et burned again by the Arabs.
AMD is simply caught between a rock and hard place, as usual. AMD is a HIGH and very risky investment which could again see the 2s.
No, you moron. You missed every single point. I do not have to thick twice about "engineering" extinction or even volunteering, You are doing such an exquisite job of it for all of us.
Try reading classes before writing. Slip in a logic course or two as well. You MUST be a gullible long.
Think (sorry, didn't mean to make ya fart)... games hype started a year ago. Each qtr since, the slow but relentless hype machines lead to a slow stock bubble, each time followed by a relatively sharp crash. It slowly ramped to $4.65 and sharply crashed to the low 3s. Then the hype machines ramped it back to the 4.50 range, only to crash again to the low 3s. Lately, the very same games hype is driving it back to the 4.40s, and if history repeats (for a 100 reasons), we should see the low 3s again.
What could be "the hyper reasons"? Games are absolutely destined to die down. Nothing can deny that absolute truth. Thus, forward guidance BETTER address that vital issue. NVDA and intel are both in the process of launching devastating new products. Forward guidance absolutely MUST address that too. Q2 numbers are simply irrelevant now. Games is pretty much one year old history. We now KNOW that games are a very LOW MARGIN product which has a relatively short exponentially downward slope tied to it. It therefore falls entirely to FORWARD GUIDANCE to determine AMD stock price.
Unless ONE of you gullible morons can credibly show a SIZABLE financial AMD activity ahead which can replace and or add to games, AMD has no prayer against the intel arsenel on the lauch pad. I wonder again if the word "SIZABLE" swooshed right by you. SIZABLE means real big dollars, not real big HYPE.
Thus, if no one can show that vital forward guidance, expect still another crash to at least the low 3s This is just the hyper AMD we all know and love so well.
It's "beneath" me to suggest that human extinction might be a good thing? Perhaps YOU are offended, huh? Might that be a totally self centered schizoid concept akin to your shallow views on AMD?
Me thinks that your schizoid self esteem needs a wake up call. .
SA has been busy as hell doing this for weeks. There can be no other explanation than MONEY in it for him (or he desperately needs a life).
Sadly, he pumps "new AMD products". There's absolutely NOTHING "new" about that subject. AMD never has a qtr with zero "new" products. That's the very nature of the industry - new or drown.
Also sadly, he pumps "growing games" in second half, when in fact, even AMD publicly reported "less growth than expected" - saturation, if you prefer... not to mention hoards of game competition.
And equally sadly, SA omits and completely ignores both NVDA and especially intel activities announcing their hoard of new products. SA ignores AMD's falling share of the fast growing laptop markets.
Still, as much as TWICE DAILY, SA composes and publishes the very same pump story with few content changes. Can SA be taken seriously or is he a closet case? Is this a setup leading to an earnings crash? In fact, other analysts seem to not be phased by him. But manipulators and FT computers must love him.
Are US economies REALLY recovering? World Economies too? I'd be greatly gratified if a credible investigative reporter would sum up all the funny money and debt being accumulated to make things appears to be recovering! One US fact alone makes that point clear. At the so called funny money "stimulus" rate of more than $500 billion per year fed pumping, we are inventing more money than all the profits of the Fortune 500 combined. That's enough money to literally HIRE every single unemployed and under-employed able body in the US at a very handsome salary, I might add. In fact, if that actually were done, the fed would get back over half of the funny money in collected taxes. The entire economy, from real estate to retail to garbage collection, would boom again.
Instead of Banks bailed out, the country would be bailed out. It's JOBS! It's JOBS! It's JOBS!
So how's that recovery stimulus working so far? Real estate is a horrible mess. Jobs are too. The rich are most surely getting very much more rich while the average worker gets poorer. But, the exuberant DOW foretells nothing but "eat drink and be merry". All is RAPIDLY getting better at a recovery rate of 14% percent per year. What more can anyone want or need? A MILLION MORE JOBS PER MONTH, not a motley 200,000 jobs to just barely cover the newborns!
The DOW is a fake, a con, a fraud, all supported by OVER $500B/year fake money - money that should be EARNED but is not.
The DOW stands of toothpicks. A 10,000 - 12,000 DOW is questionably supportable. The global toothpick system cannot survive. Just like AMD - the house built on geekie game toothpicks.
The overheard prompt: "Ya have ta be bad to be good" prompted "Ya have ta be very bad to be very good". If that applied to be AMD, well hell's bells... On the bell curve, AMD should have become at least "good" to "very good" many years or, perhaps decades ago. Dommer (sp?) should be Mother Teresa Thus, the logical flaw is that one needs to be CAPABLE of being bad and CHOOSE not to be. So I wonder what YOU just heard that I did NOT say? You heard "that's me"... I'm good because I chose to be. No you aren't! Only roughly 1 in 1000 humanoids come close to being worthy of trampling the planet. Likewise, AMD is not worthy of prolonging their misery.
What would a world look like if only the best 0.1% of humanity (7 million humans) abused the planet? It would almost certainly not suffer corruption and extreme greed. It would be safe to elect almost anyone for office. Waste would be non existent. Science would march on. The gene pool would be safe. You and I would not exist.
I like that world. But... a new bell curve would be formed. Everyone would consider the 7 million bell curve the NORM. Someone like me would open his flaps and suggest the lower 99.9% is not worthy of surviving. Only the top 0.1% (7,000 people) are "worthy". Do we see a logical progression here? Do we see a Hitler flaw here?
So does AMD deserve to survive? Do even YOU deserve that? Sure. Why not? Nature's way (all or nothing survival) When AMD screws up "bad" enough, it will perish. Same with humanity.
Conclusion: Eat, drink, and be merry - while you can, you gullible moron schizoid.
See? I gave ya a thumbs up for good factual reporting. But that's where it ends. From an AMD making money view, which is the ONLY thing that's important, AMD will loose even more share to intel because AMD cannot compete with higher closks, lower power, longer bat life, and in general, higher performance. AMD is left only with cheaper prices. That's great for millions who cannot afford much. We have to tip hats to AMD for humanitarian prospectives. But stockholders can't benefit from charities. This is 100% about EARNING MONEY, which AMD cannot do. They haven't the margins to make much. Breakeven is not acceptable. Higher margins are not possible. AMD remains where it has always been - at the low end and losing mkt share.
All companies hype some. No companies report just bad stuff. There's always good and bad. Always.
But, the insidious problems at AMD date back so very far, that poor AMD simply has no choice but to hype its ask off just to barely stay afloat. Poor AMD absolutely has had to borrow billions, issue several large convertible debentures to increase its outstanding stock from 200,000,000 to 750,000,000 and play every financial game in the book. In so doing, AMD has injected OVER $10B to atay afloat for the last 2-3 decades. Skip this information if that bothers you. The next most recent info is essential to you.
AMD over-hypes almost every future product. AMD is either desperate to say excessive good things about itself or, possibly very incompetent to appraise its own products. In either case, it happen all the time. The most recent two products - a cpu and a graphics product were over hyped and that news is out. Thus, you are seeing the stock take a hit in recent days.
Then there was publicity last Thursday about intel finally starting to ship 14nm chips in the comming weeks ahead. That's very bad news for AMD and AMD took a sharp tumble from 4.40 to 4.12, despite the intel news was already know, but ignored by many until reminded last Thursday.
AMD is in such a very tight spot that it feels that it MUST hype everything (or get fired). The bottom line here is simple. You cannot, you dare not, believe AMD hype. I can't recall even one time that a hyped AMD product actuall MET or EXCEEDED expectations. They always fall short and often extremely short of expectations. And that especially goes for game console projections - both volume and profit margins. e.g. AMD led everyone to expect extremely high profit margins, when in fact, it turned out to be only 15% profit margin.
Moreover, game volume is starting to drop as early as next qtr. The entire game industry is getting saturated far earlier than what took place 7 years ago. Expect AMD to sharply dive.
TP, "Death" comes a lot slower than you and most realize. Death a slow process that always end ABRUPTLY.
Death for AMD will be quite slow and possibly very painful as well. For example, AMD can sell entire divisions like ATI and SeaMicro even at a another "one time" paper loss to some sucker. Let's talk about "suckers" for a moment. So long as AMD has the likes of Goldman in their pocket, and so long as Goldman harbors such unmitigated internal greed, Goldman can probably find some sucker on this planet - including more Arabs - to pay unreasonably high prices for AMD divisions. So please never forget how slow death arrives. AMD is far from absolute death.
Also do not forget that AMD actually HAS BEEN DEAD for well over a full decade. It's only alive for one simple reason. It basically borrowed over $10B so far viia M&A deals and selling hyped stock (500 MM shares to be more exact). AMD has never actually EARNED money. They've only HYPED MONEY. They are so good at it, they will most likely continue that proven recipe.
So, do continue to think "death" but toss in the simple fact that they have BEEN DEAD for over a decade except not HYPE DEAD
Of COURSE you are right, and everyone (with a brain) HAS INDEED KNOWN what intel has had coming for a full year. 14nm by itself, is devastating to AMD. But when you tossing advanced intel cores, their absolutely phenomenal ring bus speed, and their vastly advanced built in graphics - all at very low power - it all blows minds. Unfathomable actually.
AMD is very very very lucky that intel has had setbacks. If not for that, AMD would be losing $200MM per qtr right now.
Perhaps, just maybe, if the rare few here with 1/4 of brain, now know why AMD declared their new business model of no longer trying to comete with intel, and WHY Amd has resigned tself t finding markets wth "no competition". AMD simply cannot compete any onger in any graphics or cpu markets.
Thus, and here goes the truth, AMD can ONLY COMPETE IN SUPER GEEK AND SUPER SMALL MARKETS - markets that no large copany cares about. AMD has twisted this hype to sound like something worth while. NONE OF IT is worth while. AMD can (and does) frequently talk about cramming 800 graphics chips into a geek room or useless junk like that. GEKKcrap.
AMD had their small and short lived game console life saver. But that too will vanish over qtrs to come. It's over.
Just ax yoself dis question. With console volume declining, with laps uncompetitive, with desktops fading into oblivian, what else, pray tell, can AMD do to survive?
By refinancing literally just in time before they spral down soon, AMD has bought itself a few years of massive losses. Then what? That's easy.
AMD has o choice but to sell ATI and SeaMicro (at a loss by the way). They's all they have left to sell and riase more money, as they hope and pra, against all odds, that TSMC coatches up to intel on 14nm. Against ALL ODDS again.
"Today" is not nearly as important to make such decisions to cut and run. You are right to be thinking longer term impacts on AMD. There are MANY worries to consider, which all sound grim and I will not list them again here for you/all.
AMD has insidious cultural problems dating back decades. THAT is the hard juggernaut AMD obstacle. Games can't do it. They are on the down-slide this year for sure. PCs are on the way to historical relics. Without 14nm fabs, AMD can't compete with intel. AMD is at the very least, 18 months away from that. DO NOT NOT NOT buy the AMD 14nm hype!
AMD has declared their latest plan, which is one to make products with no intel competition, and in fact, almost no competition, period. Things like games are an example. AMD is fundamentally not a hard-ask competitor. They are first to cave in and run. That dates all the way back to AMD Flash manufacturing - from the beginning.
In short, you are right to cut and run and find better investment quality. My interest here, has evolved into a very important academic learning tool - to see how long this BS can be drawn out - the endless saga of a truly failed company and what an end catastrophe might look like. bear in mind, that a win is always remotely possible. But anyone hanging on THAT last statement is irrational and a mental case..
This will be my last second wasting time on an illiterate moron like you. And for shitsake, the proper phrase is "I COULDN'T CARE LESS", not the moron military slum slogan, "I could care less".
OK, so ya think I don't know China. I get my info from someone who actually DOES large business (buys) in China. And the deal, he claims, is that mfgrs have to and DO sell products made there for lots less for their own people.
Secondly, if I am to believe YOU that 1 billion people do spend $6B on games, might even YOU do the arithmetic and conclude that's only $6 per person on average? Huh? Can ya bunky?
And so, what on earth drives you to the conclusion that people averaging only $6 per game would leap forward to pay $400 (or nearly 70 times more money) for a silly US game? Are YOU making up thatcrap or am I much more accurate? In other words,
I claim that AMD consoles do NOT NOT have a large potential in China, no matter what you gullible morons think.
I still think that China wants their people to spend only $6 on a waste of time, and they would love US to spend all their unproductive money and hours on mindlesscrap. You are proof of how well it's working.
Almost every qtr, like clockwork, a new flock of newbies show up. They are almost all longs who know nothing of AMD's notorious history. They all buy the slogan that the past does not predict the future, when in fact, AMD's past performance is absolutely its future - comparable to a cow and a race horse. A cow can't change.
Newbies are easy marks to expert stock hypsters. This board is flooded again with moron gullible newbies overflowing with bubbly zest. It's like stealing candy from a kid. Been happening with this stock for 40 long years. What a gold mine easy pickens stock.
Try for once in your useless life to LISTEN to a superior civilization. They "banded" importing mindless games because, in their words, they did not want to corrupt their young - their next generation.
Yes, they might (but I very much doubt it) have 500 million "potential" gamers. I think that's an absolute CLASSIC AMD type DISTORTION. China doesn't have time to play silly games. They work many more hours per week than spoiled Americans. They pissaway their money on IMPORTANT needs, not junk. The vast majority produce FOOD for their own, and are busy as hell sending mindless products to America to help bring America down and to have us indebted to China. And they succeeding marvelously because they've corrupted a goodly number of your last generation.
They've already dominated hundreds of essential US product manufactured products, and are bent on many more. At their staggering growth rate - the highest in all history - they will far surpass the US in no time at all. That's solely because they are not dumb and they SHOULD ban such utter nonsense like mindless games. How we blasted a little crack like this into their economy should be taken with considerable suspicion. One suspicion might be to help them create thousands of new sotware games to flood the US with more mindless distractions. Another might be to find ways to infect our consoles with cunning pro-China mind washing (like they do to our children's cartoons now). I speculate of course. But I see too much evidence how smart they are. They certainly are not lifting game bans for the fun of it. Take that one to the bank.
Want some proof? Just look how moronic YOU are. Oops. You can't. That requires a modicum of intelligence.