There's the snag: "THATIC has agreed to pay Advanced Micro Devices a total of $293 million over the life of the agreement, based on the latter company [AMD] meeting specific milestones."
If ZEN turns into still another dog like so many of AMD's past far overblown promises, then BOOM! Amd gets no $293mln, and probably no JV and no royalties too. This "deal" is FAR from a deal and worse still, probably not even going to be in production until 14nm shows up IN VOLUME next year. Note IN VOLUME. Samsung certainly has no fully 14nm fab capability, and GF probably is years away as usual. China not only must rely on SAM, but in a highly speculative overblown ZEN promise. China has only gambled $50mln so far, and there's a high probability they wont be forking out much more.
Geee. I didn't realize that YOU have full access to the terms and conditions of the Chinese deal. Why didn't you tell us that you had an inside track on all the contingencies?
Are you sure that a $50mlnn check HAS be cut and cashed? Are you certain that it's NOT refundable? Are you absolutely certain that there isn't a dozen fall back contingencies if regulators do not approve it?
Are you even certain that intel has a copy of the deal or have had a chance to refute it, officially approve it or, are engaged in suing Amd? How on earth did you get SOOO SMART?
Gee golly. You are soo soo smart and aware. I must read many more of your brilliant posts.
I doubt that you have a clue how far China can leapfrog US technology for a motley $290mln. China can catapult itself one step closer toward shutting down a $17 TRILLION America without dropping one bomb.
China can put a big dent in intel, one of America's most important cornerstones. This "deal" can keep Amd working FOR china until Amd sinks to the bottom. And it will only cost china a motley $100mln per year for 3 more years of hiring amd to help china crush America. That's NOT enough money to keep Amd alive for 3 more years of losing $400mln per year! China and Lisa too have this well engineered.
Some analysts - me included - predict DECLINING AMD sales this year - namely, more than 10% decline in this year alone. That spells even bigger losses going forward. The $100mln/year chinese income will only delay the inevitable losses to intel and NVDA - and now, to Chinese market share as well. It's a desperate long term big time America suicide move that Lisa cunningly engineered for her motherland.
Lisa is as Chinese as One Hung Lo.
Amd is diving down only 16% from the 3.99 friday high and is now 3.33 - headed south. Amd only needs to slide 30% to be back where it started. But if it continues it's slide down 52%, as it rose, it will land at $1.92, where it belongs.
Reality is setting in and the shorts are piling on for sure. The China deal aint solid by a long shot. Much more importantly, amd appears to be selling its flagship ZEN, and according to the simplest arithmetic, dooms amd to many more qtrs of massive losses, even with the stated $50mln/qtr chinese payments.
All of this nonsense dooms Amd to higher debts, lower mkt share, and no chance of achieving break even.
Correction: Up a frenzied 52%.
Warning warning. When Amd was questioned if this China patent deal would pass the regulators, Amd said they "believe" it will. Of course, it has NOT YET passed the tests (that is, the regulators or intel's influence on the regulators). You better be prepared for a whopping law suite against Amd if they hyped this deal in the slightest way! Such a hype could cost Amd a BILLION DOLLARS this time. It could not only slam Amd back from $4 to under $2, add a billion dollar law suite to all that.
This deal aint even half way done at this point.
First and foremost, the hyped $293mln licensing deal is by no way approved by regulators. This borders on big time national security and could be squashed - thereby sending amd back down as fast as the frenzied up 30% today. Second, if intel doesn't want to allow this amd deal, they can easily strong arm regulators. That's IF intel even cares about junk amd servers in the hands of computer terrorists (China).
Third, most of you don't even realize that the $293mln amd prize is scheduled to be received over "several years" - as in less than $100mln per year. Amd loses more than $400mln PER YEAR. Thus, amd will remain very red for a very long long time. When that seeps in, expect a stock price implosion again.
Obviously, today the shorts are bailing. But the above 3 things will put shorts back in the green again, soon after today's unfounded frenzie passes.
Let's put it this way. If regulators approve this suicidal deal, it's time to vote for a dizzy blond.
Facts... you will want and need to confirm your very vital facts this time. For example, are those cross licensing terms still valid? Are there exceptions to allow amd any licensing freedoms? Is amd, in fact in violation or subject to legal barriers?
I think more importantly, will Homeland security fail to protect america from losing some of its most vital computer tech to a known nasty computer invader (China)? this is extremely dangerous if allowed to proceed. It;s dangerous to the nation and it's also dangerous to intel's crown jewels. Intel has the power and the money to slam this desperate anti patriot move.
I think intel will covertly block the deal. Thus, I think that shorts will be handsomely rewarded if Amd is barred for either of your two reasons. Amd will be back on the junk pile overnight.
And more thing. Amd can lose that new influx of cash faster than a viper can spit. That's what Amd does best for the last 4 decades. Lastly, if that $300mln is actually paid over a long time period, (like $30mln/qtr), Amd will continue to post losses for the next 5-10 qtrs. It would do China or Amd much good to pay everything up front if indeed HS is insane enough to even approve this shameful suicide transaction.
Wait a second. That more troops than they have left after several job cuts recently. But with Sam and intel leading the way with some 25,000 fewer jobs, Amd could easily join the crowd today.
Amd jobs are vaporizing, in case you haven't noticed how they are pulling it off. They sold the Asian assembly company, which effectively slashed thousands of jobs from their payroll. They have no asset interest in any fabs these days. There's thousands of more job cuts. They are losing their shirts in desktop cpu design wins as desktops vanish into history. NVDA took almost the entire GPU mkt from AMD.
Amd only has childish game chips to keep them going. So, Amd really only needs about 1000 employees these days. They really could do without 5000 fewer jobs. If they announce a big layoff today, that might threaten being delisted from NASDQ ($1/share).
You damn FOOL! No No NO! The "cash" is not not not just "fine". Banks WILL PULL THE PLUG on Amd when they dip to $600mln which can happen THIS YEAR.
There's essentially no other asset to sell to get more cash. Their CCC credit worthiness would cost amd backbreaking interest.
And most fearful, is NASDQ. If amd dips below $1/share, Amd will be delisted, which is an instantaneous end.
I love to watch moronic novices like you actually believe that you "KNOW".
Yes indeed "signs of the times". In fact, now that most GOVERNMENTS have injected literally TRILLIONS of "stimulus" completely fake funny money into global economies since 2008, reality is setting in. We have no big thinkers left who have offered even one money-MAKING stimulus to genuinely rev things up. All they've done so far is just barely averted the ultimate exponential global implosion. Even the oil implosion "stimulus" is not saving us from the inevitable overspending hayday we've been on for 75 years. We haven't really had a balanced budget in 75 years. Everyone is living on some mythical accidental future better days - nothing whatsoever definite plan. A few are blowing the whistle but they come across as nut case extremists. It is most likely very true. Sam and intel are far from dumb. Amd is genuinely on drugs.
Many more giant layoffs like Sam and intel are merely the tiniest tip of the emerging iceberg. Amd HAS TO follow suite, in case many of you have forgotten these repeated Amd-predictions. Now that intel has led the way, Amd can follow suite and blame it on the times by following intel and Sam. However, the FACT IS that Amd should have done this a year ago. It's too late for Amd now. Firing people is VERY COSTLY. Amd don't gots much money to fire many.
You have to be exceptionally dumb to be oblivious to today's manipulation proof of this stock. If you fail to grasp this, may the gods protect you.
Aside from the downright law suite corruption at amd, asside from the eternally overly hyped amd claims, asside from the more than $10bln accumulated losses at amd, asside from the maasive losses to be reported tomorrow and nex qtr's equally large losses coming, PLEASE note the extremely flat line trading from 1:30p to 4pm.
Since I know for sure how dumb you are, I'll spell it out for you. No NATURAL trading series can remotely resemble such a perfect flat trading series with so many shares traded. It's statistically IMPOSSIBLE. It can ONLY happen by total computer control (illegal manipulation). Not that care. I really don't car if you get burned by amd. Really. I merely find it astonishing how greed can find so many ways to empty so many wallets for so long with such correct hype and the amd schizophrenic CULTURE.
This post is definitely a SWOOSH to 99% of the gullible moron minds here. S W O O S H.
Not that I care that much exactly HOW Amd stock can be computer-manipulated, but that it IS manipulated is all that counts. I chuckle at how much of Amd's valuable time must be dedicated hyping their products, their financials, bank lenders, and their OEM customers. If Amd produced really superior products, what would all the hypsters DO with all that extra time?
Amd is about to unload truly bad news tomorrow: Giant 13% and decreasing revenues, not their 9% predicted 3 months ago; delays in new products that will surely be lowend products; major 14nm delays, and; even more major losses for next qtr. Both NVDA and intel stole more Amd mkt share last Q. More mkt share loss is certain for Q2. The Amd hole is deeper than ever before, with time running out.
AND YET, the day before all this disaster, Amd is up sharply. This is not "random" free will activity.
"Ouch" is the understatement. No one expected amd to hit even lower lows. Amd was already approaching zero market share. But mark my words. Amd will undoubtedly change the subject as rapidly as possible tomorrow by announcing an endless array of promises - always far off in the future, never next month. The long line of gullible newbies will believe amd without a clue what NVDA and intel have in store to trounce amd into the ground this year. As always, it's like intel doesn't even exist.
And yet, intel has no need for 10nm fabbing mainly b/c their 14nm is so far advanced over TSMC and Samsung that they can afford to slow down 10nm and let go of 11% of the troops. Moreover, intel is apparently about to launch ultra ultra fast SSDs which will further advance their 14nm superiority. iNTEL will not miss those 12,000 troop boat anchors and still make even more money this year by taking amd business.
Business neophytes probably have no clue that companies almost always carry several types of business insurance - which in this case, almost certainly covers the costs of an the pending imposed penalties.
So, it is not AMD who will get burned if AMD loses in court. Their insurance company can get burned.
Almost all of you who might think that banks will own and dismantle AMD, are probably in for a surprise. Take a closer look at each of AMD's big loans. You'll discover that almost all of them are monstrous UNSECURED LOANS. That's right. UNSECURED.
Try to GET an "unsecured" loan these days. Not even 90% guaranteed SBA loans are granted unsecured since banks have tightened up. But con-AMD has a boatload of them somehow. As you know, AMD has sold almost every asset to stay alive. So, there's no asset security left to attach. The one AMD loan that IS secured probably controls the very small set of assets that remain - including all of AMD's worthless patents.
AMD even has a small unsecured revolving line of credit that it is rapidly draining.
This is one of the most amazing borrowers that I have ever encountered in the last century. It's comparable to an unemployed homeless individual making a multi-million dollar loan.
It takes my 17 year old laptop 3 hours to copy 50 GB (1.5 hours or 6000 seconds to copy the same sized 25GB file). So, intel's new Optane can do the job 400 times faster. They're promising even faster soon. I can hardly wait to see where this will leave Amd cpus and graphics.
In fact, I will carry this intel 10X to 100X faster memory breakthrough one more step to possibly explain WHY intel is in no rush whatsoever to needlessly race to 10nm cpus.
Just suppose that intel can speed up their existing 14nm cpus so fast with their ultra fast memory that intel might be able to burn TSMC and Samsung and GF 14nm chips to be produced for Amd. Thus, just one intel memory patent might save intel billions to not build a few 10nm multi-billion dollar fabs. Amd might not even be a small threat to intel for many reasons. Thus, could that be why intel can afford to layoff thousands of people?
I can hardly imagine a mere 15 second 25GB memory transfer! Blows my entire mind.
Here's just ONE of many DOZENS of fatal Amd judgement calls. While YOU only listen to Amd hype about how much better Amd chip generations are compared to their previous chips, intel and NVDA are busy working in two or three generations beyond that.
For instance, intel is now introducing 10s of times faster 3D memory which makes Amd's so called HBM and HBM2 chips dinosaurs. Why did Amd commit to HBM2 when they SHOULD have been aware intel? Also, NVDA is introducing blindingly faster graphics before Amd launches their archaic graphics next year. See the multi-decadal pattern here????
These not exceptions to the rule at Amd. Things just like this happen every qtr, every year, and every decade at Amd. Gullible newbies constantly listen only to Amd as if NVDA and intel did not exist. And if this trend continues its unbroken tradition, Amd will be no more, no matter all the hype. Hype never pays the bills.
I hate Andy Grove's book "Only the Paranoid Survive". But, I've also been forced to admit that he's right! American freedoms to "compete" absolutely demands that you always keep a sharp eye out for what the other guy is doing to steal your market share, to outdo you. Therein lies the central issue with both AMD and with all the AMD gulible newbies here.
In many ways, Amd is a closed culture which seems to talk itself into actually believing that its future chips will perform as they hope - always with insufficient spying on their competition, and always with too much gullible internal optimism at AMD. It's almost like AMD pretending that intel and NVDA don't exist, and that no one outside of AMD has as much smarts as AMD. Huge huge mistakes at AMD that constantly backfire on amd.
Likewise, AMD longs on this board constantly, incessantly listen only to AMD's hype, and never pay enough attention to AMD's competitors, like AMD, who pretends that intel and NVDA don't exist.
Such fatal behavior for the last 45 years has lead to AMD's demise. This one flaw, which Andy Grove details for AMD is AMD's undoing, and is also Amd long's undoing. Both are not paranoid enough. Both are too gullible. Both are too stupid to admit the fatal repeat problem. It happens every qtr, every year, every decade.
You can rest assured - and with great confidence - that the disastrous Q1 results are largely factored into AMD's current low stock price. After all, if anyone had justifiable hopes that amd would really turn profitable during the next year, the current price would be much higher. That fact is that very few expect amd to survive and are even rating amd as a "CCC" grade, unlikely to survive.
Nonetheless, given the above facts, it will not change amd's report one iota. Amd will boast an array of new graphics chips way way more powerful than amd's last generation. Amd will NOT mention that NVDA has an graphics armada far better than amd. Amd will boast their up-coming armada of 14nm graphics and cpu chips, but will not mention a word of their competitor's superior chips which will also be there or, are which have already BEEN there for over one year.
And you can be absolutely certain that amd will boast the second coming of the VR revolution to change the entire world like never before, and the billions and billions of VR devices that will NOT materialize like amd dreams, and more importantly, will be stolen by amd's competitors, exactly the same as it has always happened before for 45 years at amd.
Thus, amd's Q1 report will be pure futuristic daydream hype, no different than any ER before. Like TSLA motors' futuristic hype, TSLA and AMD never seem to mention that ultra gigantic competitors actually EXIST and with the stroke of a pen, can put AMD and/or TSLA out to pasture. Both con companies are very cash poor and have products that few want.