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American Airlines Group Inc. Message Board

arnoldboils 86 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 9, 2016 9:19 AM Member since: Jul 18, 2013
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  • arnoldboils arnoldboils Feb 9, 2016 9:19 AM Flag

    good post dakota. As I said before, we don't want no stinkin additional stream agreement. Written under extremeley stressed conditions would equate to a stinkin deal.

  • Reply to

    After Hours

    by billsmodel Feb 3, 2016 5:25 PM
    arnoldboils arnoldboils Feb 4, 2016 9:06 AM Flag

    tmguven, late prints can often be explained by the following. Quite often trades fail to get reported when they actually occur and are later posted on the tape and labelled "out of sequence". It is not uncommon to see a late out of sequence trade even get reported the next day before market opens.
    This not only true of pink sheet stocks but even the biggest stocks on the nyse etc

  • is a small taste of what could happen in the future, and underscores why TC should NOT do additional stream of its Gold production. under distressed conditions.
    Foggiecat used to say " we don't want no stinkin buyout"
    I say that should be adapted to the current situation and modified to "We don't want no additional stinking Gold stream".
    Instead TC should focus on other methods to deal with their looming cash crisis, by buying back as much of the senior secured notes 2017 at a discount as they can, and convincing the unsecured noteholders to take equity in exchange for their notes. Then it would be simple matter to refinance what is left of the 2017's and more, at favorable rates and increase their liquidity dramatically.
    That is the best course for the company's future.

  • Reply to

    Tmguven

    by arnoldboils Feb 2, 2016 11:18 AM
    arnoldboils arnoldboils Feb 2, 2016 1:36 PM Flag

    we sometimes get lulled into the concept that in this day and age of advanced technology, that a simple arithmetic thing like open interest should never contain any errors , but not so
    Sounds like there was a problem in the opra feed
    it happens.

    One of the quirks of option open interest or OI as it is often referred to is t when public customers are on both side of the trade, the net effect on OI can be zero. So for communication sakes, let's say that there is a particular call option that has an OI of 10 , due to the fact that there has been only one transaction, that a long buy of 10 contracts by person 1. Then person 2 enters limit order to buy 10 contracts of the same call at a price that is not currently marketable, (between the published bid and ask), so person 2's bid becomes reflected as the best bid in the market.
    Then person one decides he wants to sell his 10 contracts places either a market order to sell or a limit order at the price of person 2's bid,
    the transaction takes place with their orders being paired directly, ( ie no option market maker in between). In this case, the effect on OI is exactly ZERO, and the ending OI is 10 TEN
    Contrast that with the following. Start out with the same scenario, person 1 owns 10 contracts long, represents the only open interest, person 2 , just as in the first example places his order to buy to open 10 contracts, and becomes the best bid. Then person 3, who owns the underlying stock 1000 shares wants to sell to open 10 of the sameas covered calls, enters the sell to open order at market and gets paired with person 2's bid. In this case, the new OI is 30, representing each of the person's 10 contract position, Person 1 and two are long 10 each for a total of 20, and person 3 is short ten for a total of 30 OI.

  • arnoldboils by arnoldboils Feb 2, 2016 11:18 AM Flag

    you had a question re options. Open contracts that are part of a spread are supposed to be reflected in open interest. There are some complex rules regarding open interest. What is the underlying equity, date of expiration and strike price of the calls you are long on?

  • Reply to

    Conference Call - 4th Quarter

    by privatesurfing12 Jan 30, 2016 10:27 AM
    arnoldboils arnoldboils Feb 1, 2016 12:44 PM Flag

    private, they should announce the date for the 4Q earnings release / cc soon. Look for feb23/24 to be the event.

  • arnoldboils arnoldboils Jan 27, 2016 10:43 AM Flag

    answers to billsmodel and private
    bill- Speculative buy ? Could be great buy , but recognize that among the all the possibilities of how things work out , arguably not the most likely that everything will magically fall in place for a sustainable gain to equity for the common shares. the market is discounting that at best, common equity will be diluted significantly. Is the market wrong?
    For a trade? Could be a profitable gamble . The other thing you have to take into consideration is what are the alternatives? With the attractiveness for very big gains from either buying the unsecured notes or the secured notes with a lot less risk, one has to question if buying the common here is compelling. I can't predict what the shareprice will do between now and june 30, too many moving parts and no real visibility. We will have a clearer path to answer the short term as well as the medium share direction as we understand how successful they are in dealing with the unsecured note/exchange etc
    private- acknowledged that other TC yahoo finance board members don't prefer add'l streaming . But I don't agree that doing it to avoid bk is a good idea. The health of the company long run would be better served if they are able to shed the debt ,
    as I posted, doing a truly miserable additional streaming agreement may be an option, but not a good one. period.
    . Current common shareholders of course don't want bk, because their shares could get cancelled. But all hope is not lost, TC has the method to try enticing unsecured noteholders to exchange for common stock first, and to soak up as much debt as discounted prices etc, and thus keeping the current common shareholders in the game.

  • He wrote about the physical market vs the paper market for gold, and the implications that it could have for rising Gold prices, SOONER OR LATER.
    Because the likelihood of gold having a substantial and sustained rally is likely higher and sooner than copper doing so, it underscores why TC should not sign what would almost certainly be an unfavorable set of terms for an additional stream of the MM gold production in the CURRENT environment. It is the last on the potential list of possible things for TC to do to mitigate its looming liquidity /solvency issues. The common stock is already cratered, the valuable equity in the 47.5% gold production should be retained as an inducement to entice unsecured noteholders to exchange their notes for common equity in the company. How will you get the unsecured noteholders to agree to such an exchange without anything of substantial real value or hope of value in return?
    TC may not have much wiggle room, but the time will likely come that the gold production of MM will be worth much more than the market is now valuing it. Then it will be worthy of consideration to monetize in some way, not now, when it would essentially be given away for a small fraction of its longterm value.

  • Reply to

    Billsmodel

    by arnoldboils Jan 25, 2016 12:12 PM
    arnoldboils arnoldboils Jan 25, 2016 3:17 PM Flag

    you don't have the intelligence to understand my posts. Sad but true.
    Maybe ultra will save you............... chuckle

  • Reply to

    2017 Secured Debt

    by gatr55 Jan 25, 2016 1:28 PM
    arnoldboils arnoldboils Jan 25, 2016 2:57 PM Flag

    gatr, I understand your buying the secured notes. You will likely make out very well on the purchase and have a good chance to receive the full amount contracted, 100 cents on the dollar plus interest. I can't say I understand why you are buying the other TC securities. But good luck to you, at least you are a gentleman , unlike the fraud abusive demon ultraific3

  • Reply to

    Billsmodel

    by arnoldboils Jan 25, 2016 12:12 PM
    arnoldboils arnoldboils Jan 25, 2016 1:15 PM Flag

    private? I am not confusing and all over the map, I suspect that you may have not understood my posting.
    Look at my post in this thread again.
    II did NOT once mention a bankruptcy in this thread. TC can offer to do an exchange of newly common shares for unsecured notes WITHOUT filing for a bankruptcy of any kind.
    If they can convince sufficient number of UNSECURED noteholders to turn in their notes for common shares, TC can avoid bankruptcy. If they can't , then TC will likely at some point file for bankrutpcy , ether by being forced to, or proactively to avoid a more destructive scenario, Under those circumstances, YES a judge would DEFINITELY accept the filing. TC clearly cannot afford to pay the interest and principal for their debt. If the market refuses to let them out, what other choice could they have but to file for BK? None.
    And the bankruptcy court cannot force TC to do something that is not sound in it nature. ie the court would not require TC to sign an additional streaming agreement that had locked in losses and liabilities that would ultimately weaken the long term value of its stakeholders.
    What part of my posting is confusing to you?

  • arnoldboils by arnoldboils Jan 25, 2016 12:12 PM Flag

    I have enjoyed reading your posts, noted that you were one of the wise posters who recognized that ultraific3 is a fraudster.

    ultra has advanced the concept TC will somehow line up financing without actually signing on the dotted line, and before they do, they will use their cash on hand to buy back bonds , 2017, 2018 and 2019 at the big discounts that are available in the market. It sounds great, but is likely easier said than done, certainly is not what the market is expecting. your view? I do support the concept that TC should be buying their 2017 secured notes at a discount with some of their cash on hand
    My view is aligned with what the market, common sense and research dictates, that TC will likely seek approval from the unsecured note holders 2018,2019 to exchange their notes/ interest in return for equity in the company , ie for common stock. Today the 2018 notes traded 500 bonds at the price of 10 cents on the dollar, which is pretty good evidence that investors expect the above. If TC takes that course and succeeds in the exchange, they can easily refinance whatever portion of the 2017 Secured notes they have not bought back, likely at favorable terms.
    I cannot say what TC will do, but my opinion & likely the advice of the firms they have engaged is to not seek to do an additional stream on their gold production. as the terms of such won't be favorable They need to hold out the chance that the company could realize the benefit of the gold production , especially the hope of big revenue in the case of sharply higher gold prices They also need this hope to help convince the 2018,2019 noteholders to do the exchange, why exchange unless you get something valuable in return or at least the hope of something valuable. Your view?

  • Reply to

    The real question we should be asking now

    by arnoldboils Jan 22, 2016 12:37 PM
    arnoldboils arnoldboils Jan 22, 2016 7:42 PM Flag

    gatr, I understand your post. I too have looked at and analyzed the financials and I do not agree that they have the cash flow sufficient to both pay the interest and pay down the debt. However, I agree with you in that I do not see bankruptcy as an absolute necessity at this time, But in order to avoid it, my analysis dictates that they must be able to in some significant manner restructure the debt ( most likely the unsecured). If they can convince the unsecured note holders to exchange their notes for a highly diluted equity issuance, and perhaps even accept the same in lieu of cash interest payments, then the way would seem to be pretty clear to be able to refinance/ the 2017 secured notes. If they cannot do that kind of restructuring in a voluntary manner, they would be forced at some point to file for the canadian equivalent of chap 11 bk.
    If one accepts the concept that that under what I would consider the best of scenarios, that the current common shareholder base will be diluted extremely, and under the worst case, (BK) be cancelled completely, I must admit I am amazed at your recent purchases of the common stock. Buying the 2018-2019 notes seems to have plenty of thrill if one seeks a risky speculation, and buying the 2017 secured notes is clearly the least risky, but is also the most likely method of achieving reasonably predictable profitable returns.

  • Reply to

    The real question we should be asking now

    by arnoldboils Jan 22, 2016 12:37 PM
    arnoldboils arnoldboils Jan 22, 2016 2:23 PM Flag

    you chose to single out the pricing of the notes I quoted, but you did not speak to the main issue of the thread, which is to answer the question:
    what are the chances that the senior debt holders will be made completely whole?
    Read my original post again please.

  • Reply to

    The real question we should be asking now

    by arnoldboils Jan 22, 2016 12:37 PM
    arnoldboils arnoldboils Jan 22, 2016 2:19 PM Flag

    hi gatr, my pricing is not off at all. I use my Bloomberg Terminal to get an idea, but when I am really intersted I have contacts at the bond desk of Goldman Sachs , among others.
    Perhaps your problem is that you are working with Schwab , a discount brokerage, I don't know, but if you have access to a Bloomberg Terminal or even a trading platform like Bondesk, you would have to recant your criticism.

  • first some of the given before the question:
    1.stock trading around 12 cents, clearly no equity value, but a medium term option equivalent play on a miraculous turnaround
    2. 2018 unsecured notes trading below 15 cents on the dollar, 2019 unsecured notes trading below 20 cents on the dollar. Clearly the market stating that these will not be repaid in money anywhere close to their stated principal values
    3. SECURED 2017 NOTES now trading below 80 cents on the dollar. Last trade of size was a more than a million face value at 75 cents on the dollar at the close yesterday.
    So the question is:
    With the market now discounting the senior notes this much, what are the chances that even the secured notes holders will be made completely whole,
    By completely whole, that means they will be paid 100 cents on the dollar plus all interest due
    What are the chances that will happen?
    Is it allmost a certainty , ie approaching 100 percent chance, or is it less, 90 percent chance?
    80 percent chance? etc.

  • Reply to

    Bye Bye

    by dadufuss Jan 15, 2016 10:22 PM
    arnoldboils arnoldboils Jan 21, 2016 5:13 PM Flag

    good post bill

  • Reply to

    Speaking of irony.

    by arnoldboils Jan 21, 2016 2:33 PM
    arnoldboils arnoldboils Jan 21, 2016 4:21 PM Flag

    no, untrue, he has flipflopped and now says they can do a "dirty" deal where they obtain verbal comittment for refinancing the 2017 notes, and before they publicly announce it, buy as many of the unsecured notes as they can. There is no mistake on my part about that, he has spoken in detail of when they would have to report it, ( ie when they issue a 10Q) and advocated that they buy in sllence until the very last moment they have to report it, and then sign and announce the refinance deal for 2017 , with the idea that they have bypassed the covenants because they virtually eliminate them by retiring the 2017's. Along the same lines, he has suggested that while the secured notes are cheap , to buy as many of them that they can afford from cash on hand , thus making the amount needed to retire them less. Mind you , I am not against the concept, as I said, I am in favor of it, if they can accomplish it. But you are wrong in stating that I misrepresent his posts, his views. No, it is he who misrepresents my and others posts and views. Shame on you.

  • arnoldboils by arnoldboils Jan 21, 2016 2:33 PM Flag

    Don't you find it interesting that ultra who vicsiously pooed pooed the idea that TC might be able to opportunistically retire a significant portion of its unsecured debt , has now done a complete flip flop and not only is not fighting the idea anymore, but has plunged both feet in, fully advocating a plan in which TC does JUST THAT.
    I could tell you that I had something like that in mind when the subject was being discussed on this board, long long ago, but it does not matter. While it is a conceivable concept, it is easier said than done. Mind you, I would love to see it, as I still own 7300 shares of the common stock , &with last friday's option expiration , a huge number of various calls I had written as a hedge expired at zero, so I am a plain vanilla long, albeit it is not by much
    People, you have to realize that ultra is a complete fraud. an abusive manipulative nasty person. If you believe that he is a valuable expert to be trusted and relied upon, heaven help you , because you are wrong. Only amateurs without knowledge and acumen would fall for believing in him. If you do, you should realize that is the category you belong to, &that recipe is a recipe for consistent losses in stock investing. Perhaps you should be honest with yourself and see that is what has been happening in your accounts, not only on your TC position, but on other positions as well. It's true, is it not?
    Do what you want, but those doubling down now are acting out of impulse rather than sound practice. If I wanted to get long TC I would use the notes as a vehicle, secured and maybe unsecured, not the common stock. But please keep buying the common stock and push it up, will you, so I can dump my paltry position. thanks.

  • Reply to

    RGLD vs senior secured debt

    by switch_1995 Jan 20, 2016 6:45 AM
    arnoldboils arnoldboils Jan 20, 2016 9:04 AM Flag

    you misunderstood my post.
    TC could first attempt to RESTRUCTURE outside of bankruptcy , by offering to give unsecured note holders newly issued common shares in exchange for turning in their notes. If conditions persist in a negative manner or if TC delays doing the above described deal or meets resistance in doing it, they will likely be forced to declare bankruptcy Given that they are a Canadian corporation the semantic is different , but they would , OF COURSE attempt to file the bankruptcy in a chap 11 like manner ( canada has a similar provision). That way , they might be able to remain at the helm, ( of course that might not happen if stakeholders vote them and the board out) A liquidation or chapter 7 canadian equivalent would only happen if things worsen beyond the degree that the prior measures were insufficient to keep TC being able to operate as a going concern.

AAL
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