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Halcon Resources Corp. Message Board

arnoldboils 33 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 10, 2014 2:38 PM Member since: Apr 8, 2013
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  • Reply to

    SA article by Stone Fox Capital

    by arnoldboils Jul 10, 2014 8:32 AM
    arnoldboils arnoldboils Jul 10, 2014 2:38 PM Flag

    the average of 17 analysts is $5.40 EPS for 2014 , with a range of $4.95 to $6.14.

  • Reply to

    Natural gas prices

    by arnoldboils Jul 9, 2014 8:24 PM
    arnoldboils arnoldboils Jul 10, 2014 8:51 AM Flag

    to be completely accurate, I should note that although NG did set a new six month low yesterday for the third straight day, it rallied into the close to be actually up for the day. Today , in premarket it is flat, acting like it is reaching a bottom.
    It should be noted that the natural gas storage stats are still decidedly below the 5 yr average and this is bullish for prices

  • article entitled "Update: American Airlines June Traffic Report" by
    here is an excerpt:
    "For the month of June, American reported that revenue passenger miles only increased 1.0% versus last year while the load factor declined 1.9 points to 85.0%. Those numbers weren't so impressive, but the airline did much better with the revenue and margin numbers. For the month, the passenger revenue per available seat mile, or PRASM, was up on average a strong 6% versus the prior year. In addition, the company expects the pre-tax margin for the quarter to reach 12% to 13%.

    The positive numbers back the expectations that American Airlines will earn more than $6 in 2015. The stock continues to trade at less than 7x the analyst estimates of $6.16 for 2015. It offers a very attractive valuation compared to Delta Air Lines trading at over 10x earnings, especially considering Delta only reported a 4.5% gain in PRASM for June. The original target of $60 provided by York Capital back in March and our suggestion that American Airlines could hit $72 based on a 12 multiple of 2015 earnings stands. Investors should continue to use dips in the stock to load up."

  • arnoldboils by arnoldboils Jul 9, 2014 8:24 PM Flag

    the "gas" has been coming out of ng prices, with the 3rd straight new sixt month low being set today. Supply outlook is easing which means the price should continue to be soft.
    This, of course , makes TLM , which is heavily weighted to natural gas, worth less, so not favorable for long positions.
    shareprice on the Toronto exchange is bumping along near the 52 wk low, and it would not be surprising to see the NYSE listed shares continue to bump along near $10.

  • arnoldboils by arnoldboils Jul 9, 2014 9:11 AM Flag

    Just a matter of time,
    the key metric Standard and Poor's , in their own words for inclusion in the index is
    "leading companies in leading industries"
    AAL is more than just a leading company in the industry,
    It is the leading company,
    the largest airline in the world, and they are already showing that they are leading in management lead performance.
    So it is just a matter of time before S&P includes them in this important benchmark index.
    I would hate to be short when that happens.

  • Reply to

    No buyout

    by ww4231 Jul 8, 2014 1:20 AM
    arnoldboils arnoldboils Jul 8, 2014 2:37 PM Flag

    I have to agree with the other poster, no buyout of TLM, not going to happen, not even a remote chance. I don't know where you got that idea, but if you understand everything that goes with it, there is no company that would want to buy TLM completely , when you can parts for fire sale prices and buy plenty of other better deals on the market right now, why would any company be crazy to bid for the whole company when it will bring along huge problems and obligations, not to mention the huge debt load etc

  • arnoldboils by arnoldboils Jul 7, 2014 9:23 AM Flag

    appears to be a 2016-18 hoped for turnaround. The short term does not appear to be exciting.
    The recent rally we saw up to the higher 10's appeared to be a rising tide lift all boats concept due to fears of a tighter oil market due to potential Iraq tensions decreasing output, along with other similar things such as libya exports down , ukraine etc.
    With oil caliming down as libya exports coming up, iraq still not causing export decreases, the sector is calming down and it makes sense for the air to come out of a weaker player like TLM.
    So it would not be surprising to see the stock continue to be under mild pressure in the weeks to come.

  • Reply to

    bear trap being laid

    by arnoldboils Jun 23, 2014 8:13 AM
    arnoldboils arnoldboils Jun 30, 2014 7:25 AM Flag

    here was my post from a week ago, stock was under pressure in premarket, trading $3 below where it is now, and then look what happened as the week evolved.
    Same set up now.
    Don't get caught up in the bear trap, FB will be on to new highs in the next few weeks.

  • arnoldboils by arnoldboils Jun 30, 2014 7:21 AM Flag

    just like last week's monday premarket and early market going, bear trap is being laid, shorts selling FB hard, and then later in the day/ week, the stock gets reversed to go where it is going , HIGHER,

  • the max pain for options expiration was around $65, with little change from 64.50 to 66. Late in the day when it dropped below $67.50 as peope were selling their in the money calls to the market makers, the options market makers started to dump stock hard, hoping to get at least the $67.50, $67 and maybe the $66.50 calls wiped out, but the buying demand by new players was so great it overwhelmed their attempts almost completely, and pushed the close up, not only above $67, but above $67.50.
    In the after hours do not be confused by the smokescreen. Option market makers were caught short , but they have very deep pockets and are very smart and bold . They offered stock on ECN's at $67.50 in size, to discourage buyers , while they were buying large large amount of stock in the after hours at $67.58 or so. You can go to time and sales data and see the huge volume at the higher prices.
    The significance of this is that it is very bullish action. Regardless of what happens after earnings, it portends that the play of running FB up into earnings is on. Remember the general market was down this last week, and what did FB do?. Up over $3 on a down week, that is serious outperformance, and supports the concept that big money will be buying FB into the earnings period.
    I think that after earnings we get a complete breakout to all time highs on the stock. (and I am not the permabull type, I was shorting FB a few weeks ago)

  • Reply to

    Whay happens to the 67.50 options expiring today??

    by dreago27 Jun 27, 2014 4:30 PM
    arnoldboils arnoldboils Jun 27, 2014 4:47 PM Flag

    the answer to your questions is that the calls at $67.50 expiring today will be AUTOMATICALLY exercised.
    the ah quote you are seeing is as a result of desperate shorts trying to paint the tape on the common ECN's to discourage buyers while they try to buy shares in dark pools .
    Stock will likely be over $68 sometime during Monday's trade.
    If I were short, I would use any opportunity afforded by ah today to cover favorably.

  • arnoldboils by arnoldboils Jun 27, 2014 4:32 PM Flag

    Held gains very well on a volatile week, held back by options expiration.
    Word is that earnings will be a truly magnificent upside event.
    Next week likely to rally higher.

  • arnoldboils by arnoldboils Jun 27, 2014 10:44 AM Flag

    If you agree with the following statements. please give a thumbs up to this post. If you disagree the opposite.
    1. Smoked lobster's posts are mostly insulting attacks of others and unfounded at that.
    2. Smoked lobster's posts are an abuse of the terms of service of yahoo finance board.
    3. Smoked lobster's posts should be ignored or reported for abuse.
    Thank you..

  • Reply to

    Re the buyout.

    by ww4231 Jun 27, 2014 6:51 AM
    arnoldboils arnoldboils Jun 27, 2014 8:58 AM Flag

    this is my first and last post to you.
    you said that you have " been proven 100% correct in .... timely opinion of every stock ..... posted "
    an objective assessment of your posts, at least on a volume weighted basis reveals that your posts generally are centered on denigrating others, and sparse on opinion about TLM.
    So, to be fair, what is your "timely opinion " on the TLM?
    because if you have one, it has been lost amidst your constant haranguing of others

  • Reply to

    Re the buyout.

    by ww4231 Jun 27, 2014 6:51 AM
    arnoldboils arnoldboils Jun 27, 2014 8:10 AM Flag

    I have seen the call option activity, it could be due to buyout rumors or it could be to restructuring deals such as asset sales and/or other investor activist shareholder value moves anticipated and that we have heard that the company is considering.
    don't worry about smoked lobster, anyone who reads this board already considers him the resident village idiot. A poor soul who has no life other than to patrol this board 24/7 and hurl insults to others. So sad.

  • Reply to

    bear trap being laid

    by arnoldboils Jun 23, 2014 8:13 AM
    arnoldboils arnoldboils Jun 23, 2014 11:47 AM Flag

    talk about a great call on my part!

  • arnoldboils by arnoldboils Jun 23, 2014 8:13 AM Flag

    shorts feverishly shorting premarket to try to scare people. Watch for reversal and big upside rally .
    Classic bear trap.

  • on friday june 6, FB, after having the usually call option unwinding friday slump, rallied into the close and
    the closing print was a block on 730,000 shares on an UPTICK at $62.50. The stock rallied the first part of the next week.
    Yesterday, the stock followed a similar pattern, with two exceptions, one it was two dollars higher, and the closing print was a whopping 3.8 million plus shares at $64.50, portending a rally next week. And note that it did this despite the max pain on the options being at a much lower strike. So a bullish indication.
    Did anyone else get short $64.50 calls exercised on them?
    I would not short this stock now, it is very likely to make a significant rally.

  • arnoldboils by arnoldboils Jun 20, 2014 4:12 PM Flag

    quartrtly opton expiration held it back today.
    3,8 million share buy on close at market today.
    look for strength next week.

  • arnoldboils by arnoldboils Jun 20, 2014 11:53 AM Flag

    shaping up to be @63.50, pit strugglers sizing it up.

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