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Silver Wheaton Corp. Message Board

arql07 715 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 5, 2016 5:23 PM Member since: Jun 19, 2007
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  • arql07 arql07 Feb 5, 2016 5:23 PM Flag

    Bump

  • Reply to

    Lakeshore

    by arql07 Feb 5, 2016 12:15 PM
    arql07 arql07 Feb 5, 2016 5:18 PM Flag

    Love how when you get embarrassed by your math, you want us to just ignore you. How about you raise your game a little. Actually read the PR's and understand how this works. You might get away with your little game with the pumpers, but I'm way above your pay scale. You been served and you volley back was like a girl. "Put me on ignore". How about post something intelligent and we will not have to school you again.

  • Do the same thing robo blast post for hours on hours. If the children will not grow up, then we will just give them their own medicine. We all know edbi not operating with a full deck. But if you want games, fine. Bet I can out last you clowns.

  • Reply to

    Lakeshore

    by arql07 Feb 5, 2016 12:15 PM
    arql07 arql07 Feb 5, 2016 12:21 PM Flag

    Interesting everyday, a new id robo posts to move items out of site. Edbi, knows that he looks like a #$%$ when he does it too much. So he spreads it out over all his aliases. Jinker, edbi, drods, twitcheye, notatakeover, zzz are all the same idiot.

  • arql07 by arql07 Feb 5, 2016 12:15 PM Flag

    You do realize that the product that Biel ships, isn't on consignment? In a drug store only a a few items are on consignment. Anything that takes up a lot of space like the Greeting cards is on cognsignment. But Biel products do not fall anywhere near that type of inventory. Magazines, Leggs products do. So when these stores do a reset and include Actipatch, the original inventory and what the warehouse will keep on hand will have to be paid for.

    I don't see these things flying off the shelf, but selling three items a week per store is a fair estimate. Costco is selling anywhere from 35-50 two paks a week. I update sales every Monday.

    I am here to make a trade and I look for the items that are real. Not like the clowns with multiple id's. They all share one wet dream. I cannot predict when the FDA will decide, so I am focused in on the next thing that may move this up and allow daytrders to rush in and out. I think that could be a nice surprise on revenues. Triple on the number over the 3Q has a shot here. Specially if all 2100 stores started getting product in the 4Q and as long as Biel is on the accrual method of accounting.

    With my posts, they are serious attempts to price things in. I have no need for pumpers and if the bashers are dishonest, I will hold them accountable. If you want I can focus my attention towards you. Look at the blibbering idiot that edbi has become, under my posts about him. Be careful, I know more about you, then you will ever know about me.

    This board has one honest id, it's a shame. But maybe one day, the rest will grow up, but no one's holding their breath.

  • Reply to

    Earnings and what they may look like

    by arql07 Feb 4, 2016 7:40 AM
    arql07 arql07 Feb 5, 2016 11:42 AM Flag

    Lake,

    They are not putting this product in on consignment. My numbers are base on the initial product going on the shelf. This is not that hard to understand. If 2100 stores put actipatch on the shelf 4-6 each of the three products, you do understand they have to pay for it?

    If Boots310 and amazon do about $500K a quarter. You would have to think that adding 2100 new stores, will perform maybe similar. Let's say that Amazon represents what 190 stores would sell. That makes the sales we saw in the 3Q, on average every 500 store represents $500K in revenues. If they, increase to now having 2400 stores, revenues will go up. Looking at Boots website the replies to the product are overwhelming positive. That should pass on to the additional stores. BTW it retails for $19.99 not anywhere near $35. Big difference. At least be somewhat honest here Lake.

  • Reply to

    Earnings and what they may look like

    by arql07 Feb 4, 2016 7:40 AM
    arql07 arql07 Feb 5, 2016 10:40 AM Flag

    You cannot look back to look forward. If they had one quarter where sales spike, that was because of Dr. Oz and shortly after that the FDA gave them the letter.

    We know they are landing these stores, we know that they will sell the three patches. The stores either get shipped 4-6 of each product. The warehouse have to have supply to restock. This isn't rocket science. I am using conservative estimates.

    New stores have no flat line, they just have stocking the shelves and what they need in the warehouse to ship, when the store places their order weekly. I have always estimated sales would be low per store. I estimate each store would sell on average 3 per week. But 3 per week adds up.

    If you have 2400 stores selling 3 per week x $15 each. This works out to about $1.4M per quarter. So I feel pretty comfortable estimate sales last quarter were around $1.5M.

    BTW they are releasing these numbers 16 days earlier then last year. You don't do that, with a poor number.

  • Reply to

    Earnings and what they may look like

    by arql07 Feb 4, 2016 7:40 AM
    arql07 arql07 Feb 5, 2016 6:54 AM Flag

    Okay geniuses lets use your $800K number and work backward. The last quarter they did $499K. Do you assume in your $800K that they lost some of these revenues? If not, then we know that Costco ordered 3000 packs and we know they reordered at least 300 additional ones. To be conservative here, let's say they pay $35 for the two pack. That is $115,500 they purchased. So add that to the $499K and you have $614K in revenues. So your figure of $800K means that all of the other stores buys were for $184K.

    We have 1077 Lloyd's, 690 Boots, 60 Gordons., 186 superdrugs and 103 Showcase stores. That is 2116 stores and they all stock the three products. So how many would each store have on the shelf and in inventory under your numbers? If we use a wholesale price of $15, this $184K number of yours, means that each of these stores received 5.79 patches. So they put out one on the shelf each and keep in warehouse to ship to a store almost 1 each.

    Sometimes you have to let them come to terms with their own nonsense. Do you think they received only one patch to display? If so, then you stick to your numbers. Dec 7 was the last update that they had landed a customer. That was Showcase 103 stores, do you think showcase received only 3 patches to each store?

    I cannot babysit you. You have a pencil and paper and if you believe this is headed to .50 a share, then you are a long way from that, if the firsts stores only wanted one on the shelf to start with. Ladies you can do the math. I understand how difficult this is for many here. Maybe if they had common core 50 years ago, pappy's Id's would be better at it?

  • Reply to

    Earnings and what they may look like

    by arql07 Feb 4, 2016 7:40 AM
    arql07 arql07 Feb 4, 2016 12:04 PM Flag

    Have to disagree. First we can see sales of the patch by Costco. These wins are for a year at least in boots/Lloyds. They will definite have sales greater then $1M. Think they could actually flirt with $2M. These stores do not just put one on the shelf, they will have at least 4-6 on the peg. That is 18 per store, the warehouse has to have on hand product to ship. I used very conservative numbers and we know that Boots 310 stores and Amazon sell $500K a quarter. So adding 2200 additional stores and Costco, is 7 times more stores stocking this.

    I know lake you post for effect, but if you are dishonest, you are no better then edbi and zzz on their claims. I will take a look at your claims about expenses. You would expect some expenses to rise, if you are selling more. I will be happy if they reach $1.5M, disappointed with $1M and would expect this to break .002 on $2M in revenues. If they are selling $8M a year, the company could be sold for $24M(3 times sales). That works out to be .002 a share, give or take a billion less or more shares floating around.

  • Reply to

    Earnings and what they may look like

    by arql07 Feb 4, 2016 7:40 AM
    arql07 arql07 Feb 4, 2016 10:39 AM Flag

    I reread the press release. They all state the same thing, initial orders ship the day of the PR. That stores will have them on promotion usually within 10 days of the PR.

    Lloyd's states they will be on promotion Nov 1 in stores and online, the news came out on Oct 20.

    So you view this does move very fast, sorry but today just in time inventories, is what it's all about. All the Pr's clearly state the product will be in stores and online. I know for a fact, that all stores in a region, get what is called a POG and that product is updated all at once. The stores move on POG changes and district managers look to see if they are be made. I have a friend who is a manager of a CVS, he told me, usually you see new stuff being shipped to the store a few days ahead of time, they will have signage on the product hold for reset.

    These announcements have promotional dates assigned to them. They maybe in advertisements, on sale. The stores better have the product, if they advertise it. Maybe you need to read the Pr's again.

  • Reply to

    Earnings and what they may look like

    by arql07 Feb 4, 2016 7:40 AM
    arql07 arql07 Feb 4, 2016 8:18 AM Flag

    Gross profit will be between 50%-65%. Good margins. They have these expenses:

    $283,914 Other general & administrative
    $243,708 Sales/support
    $178,992 Research
    $154,310 Interest
    $83,580 Investors relations
    $53,685 Legal/Accounting
    $46,000 Bad debts
    $2,794 Depreciation

    We will see what expenses increase to sell to these stores. Bad debts of $46K, are they selling edbi product and he's not paying for it? Interest expense is $616K a year, do the Whelan's record 10% interest expense for themselves? Investors relations expense of $83K?

    I feel they are getting closer to breakeven. However, these types of companies, as soon as they get on stronger footing, usually start paying themselves with the extra money. We will see if the Whelan's care about you. I pulled these numbers out so we can compare and see where this maybe headed.

  • It looks like earning will be out by middle of March.

    So what could they look like?

    I will use the store counts that we know about and base figures on these stores having 6 1/2 weeks of sales to be conservative on the numbers.

    Let's start with last quarters sales and assume that the boots 310 stores/amazon match the 3Q numbers of $499K.

    Numbers below are based on initial store stock of 12 per store and inventory in warehouse of 6 per store. Sales of 3 patches per week will be reordered for the 6.5 weeks. We don't know if these stores received the product in October or December, so I use the half way point.

    Lloyds adds 1077 stores. First order including warehouse inventory $290K + restocking for 6.5 weeks of sales of 3 per store x 6.5 weeks $315K. Round this to $600K.

    Boots increased stores by 690. $185K order. Restocking for 6.5 weeks $200K.

    Gordons 60 stores $16K + restocking $17.5K.

    Superdrugs 186 stores $50K + restocking $54K.

    Costco Order 300 packs, restocked 3000 packs. $92K

    Showcase 103 stores $28K + restocking $30K.

    I come up with $1.75M for the quarter. If they operate on 50% margin, they have $886K operating profits. Still think they will lose maybe $200K for the 4Q. As long as each store sells 3 patches a week, we could see revenues repeat these same numbers for the 1Q16.

    I believe sales will be between $1.5M to $1.75M.

  • Clobbered! Don't come crying around her like last time. We don't want to hear how you had a profit, but decide that the day traders deserve it more then you do. Watch trading and beat the day traders at their game. Let edbi, pappy and drods and zzz, holding the bag of krap.

  • Reply to

    Biel's biggest accomplishment for 2015

    by arql07 Feb 3, 2016 10:03 AM
    arql07 arql07 Feb 3, 2016 11:54 AM Flag

    They are 10 times smarter then the clown telling investors to hold since 2008. Right pappy? There are many ways to skin a cat and if some investor can trade a million shares and make $100, all the power to them. They may miss that big spike to .002 and back to .0012, but that is a risk.

  • When news hits and day traders pile in, they will also pile out and take with them $20M in profits. Listening to clowns like our pumpers has cost investors $100M. They let others walk away with your money. Now lucky for edbi, he has his paper route, his girl scout cookies and the intellect of a squirrel. Do not get taken in by these clowns. Ask them to show you anything real, they all run like cockroaches.

    DO NOT GET TALKEN IN BY PUMPERS. They are low class idiots who in 7 years, have got nothing right. Not one thing. They are all one id who over paid for hares in 2009. They need a win here to get even and they need you to help them pick your pockets.

  • Reply to

    Biel's biggest accomplishment for 2015

    by arql07 Feb 3, 2016 10:03 AM
    arql07 arql07 Feb 3, 2016 11:20 AM Flag

    Facts jackoffs.

  • Reply to

    Biel's biggest accomplishment for 2015

    by arql07 Feb 3, 2016 10:03 AM
    arql07 arql07 Feb 3, 2016 10:43 AM Flag

    This is the facts jack.

  • Started the year off at .001, finished the year at .001. Printed 4.5B shares. Any appreciation is lost to inflation of shares outstanding. Everyone should have made some money, instead you sit here with dead money for 7 years.

  • Reply to

    BIEL's 2015 ACCOMPLISHMENTS ---

    by edbi46 Feb 3, 2016 8:01 AM
    arql07 arql07 Feb 3, 2016 9:58 AM Flag

    Look EDBI took a pill to combat his tendencies to bite. Whatever meds you are on now, please continue. I bet this was exhausting for him, to put this much of that undersized emotional part of his brain on hold. You were coherent, articulate....only problem I see.....over ruled. Whose paper did edbi copy off?

    I notice how he hid the drop off in 3Q quarter sales from the second quarter. anyone think he did this on purpose to hide the shame? Anyways edbi, you get a B- for the effort.

    I think he got ahead of the curve on the classifications, none of Biels products are class 2. The other item he left off, was how sales were diminishing from Costco website. Hoping that picks up. Selling $75K a year, will not pay the light bill.

    Still believe on news you have to be prepared to watch trading and take advantage of the day traders move, before they out wit longs here. Edbi we all know this stuff and you may think 2500 stores is something. However they only sell maybe 3 items per store, so we cannot get too excited, when they have to spread that across 12B shares.

  • Reply to

    EDBI

    by arql07 Feb 2, 2016 5:26 PM
    arql07 arql07 Feb 3, 2016 6:31 AM Flag

    I think EDBI is a menstrual cramp. He always angry. He has several Sybil voices, all of which sound like he's constipated. Got to feel sorry for him. He's a woman stuck in a immature man's body.

SLW
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