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Orient Paper, Inc. Message Board

arsenio_hola_farquhar 45 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 16, 2014 1:16 PM Member since: Mar 5, 2013
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  • ONP only received $2.17 million of the $2.5 million that Sabby shelled out. This works out to a paltry $1.38 a share, ONP sold stock at 15.6% of their stated Book Value. When the deal was announce ONP was about $2 a share, after the deal was announced the price dropped as low as $1.55 a share for a loss of 22.5%.....ouch! ONP now has 12.5% more shares issued and outstanding (not including some incrementally more dilutive warrants). Their projected EPS drops 12.5% immediately, it's simple maths, more shares, less EPS. Anyone who claims the deal worked out "perfectly" has his head perfectly stuck up his wahzoo! LMFAO!

    Sentiment: Sell

  • approximately $8,733,738 at the end of June 2014. In a scant 6 months their working capital deficit grew 361%, this is why they were forced to make that "going concern" warning in their latest 10Q filing.

    Before they started their latest round of facility construction they confidently assured shareholders that they were capable of funding their extravaganza completely from internally generated funds. You call that sound financial planning? OMG these bozos painted themselves into a corner, they've been borrowing heavily to finance this and now they have to give stock away at 14% of book value. You really think you have responsible management in place here? You've got to be kidding me, this is fertile ground for launching class action lawsuits my friend.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • and these 2 idiots are Timothy aka broke@49 and sunnsailor aka (just look "sunnsailor" up in urban dictionary). LOL LOL LOL!

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Sunn is the truly greatest comedian who ever graced this boar with his asinine pumps. LOL LOL LOL, LMFAO!

    Sentiment: Sell

  • arsenio_hola_farquhar arsenio_hola_farquhar Sep 11, 2014 11:16 AM Flag

    Then broke@40 MUST be a FOOL. Remember SPLK you moron? Back when SPLK was in the $40's how many posts did you make about SPLK's lack of earnings? Do you know SPLK traded over $61 a share just this very morning? LOL LOL LOL, ROTFLMFAO!

    Sentiment: Sell

  • arsenio_hola_farquhar arsenio_hola_farquhar Sep 10, 2014 11:38 PM Flag

    moron@40 is a LIAR, when this pile of feces hit $3, I upgraded this smelly nugget to a "STRONG SELL" from a plain jane "SELL", I predicted then that it would soon trade below $2 and this is exactly where it is today. When it was $3 the moron@40 predicted it would soon be in the $4's. Moron@40 overstayed his welcome, that's why he's an ONPee bag holder singing the blues on this board of misery.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • he backed up the truck at $2.32 to $2.28, making him the latest and most bitter bag holder of them all today.

    Look at sunnsailor, that mentally challenged clown saw value in ONP back when it was in the $8's, looking at it's all time high of $15.15 and thinking that China was going to boom forever sunnsailor saw value in ONP at those lofty levels and that's why today sunnsailor's the biggest baddest bag holder of them all. Tucked in between these book ends are guys like fclosino, harrymcnamee, drjoeknows, financefred and others. They're all hanging in there hoping and praying they live long enough to see what they once thought as "value" get realized.

    Evelynneheeter used to be just like Timothy, she used to post and pump here on a 24/7/365 basis until one day she said her investment horizon wasn't nearly as long as harrymacnamee's (my children will realize the value) and took her lumps and moved on, perhaps of all the bag holders here she's the smartest of the sorry bunch, at the very least she realized she'd made a mistake and put an end to her suffering and her losses.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • the money for LESS. Oh yeah they had to GIVE AWAY a bunch of IN THE MONEY warrants too! OMG this PIG is just a sick joke isn't it? LOL LOL LOL!

    Sentiment: Sell

  • arsenio_hola_farquhar arsenio_hola_farquhar Sep 6, 2014 5:20 PM Flag

    Agree completely that "Often, there is no correlation between the success of a company's operations and the success of its stock over a few months or even a few years. In the long term, there is a 100 percent correlation between the success of the company and the success of its stock" This is EXACTLY why this PIG is down from $15.15 where it was several years ago to the $1.78 it is today and it EXPLAINS why they were FORCED to issue stock at $1.388 (net proceeds to ONP, adjusted for the $330,000 they had to pay in order to raise the money) or 15.67% of declared Book Value (they got FIFTEEN CENTS on the DOLLAR, LOL). They must have been really HARD UP to have to do that PLUS give away for FREE a bunch of 5 YEAR warrants at $1.70 and more at $2.00. That's right give this PIG more time and it will slide even FURTHER into the abyss. LMFAO!

    Sentiment: Sell

  • their latest 8-K filing he would learn that the $2.50 million was NOT put up by any ONE "investor", quite on the contrary, it was put up by a group of "investorS". He would also learn that ONP only managed to get $2.17 million out of that highly dilutive transaction and that the transaction is even worse that it first appeared because in addition to the FREE warrants at $1.70 issued to the purchasers, ONP had to GIVE Wainright another batch of FREE warrants excercisable at $2.00 good for 5 years. So there you are broke@40, it would appear that Wainright underwrote the deal, charged your company $330,000 or 13.2% to do the dastardly deed and then placed these shares + warrants with their retail clients. They also squeezed some free warrants exercisable at $2.00 (good for 5 years) out of the company, and they got those pro bono, stupid is as stupid does. lol lol lol!

    Sentiment: Sell

  • from $8.86 before this forced sale to a lower number. Here's another free lesson in financial analysis for you clueless dopes. Original book value was $8.86, after adjusting for new shares and warrants issued their adjusted book value drops to BELOW $8.00, somewhere around $7.97 a share so the truth is all you long-time ONP bag holders got screwed out of about 10% of your book value so tell me, did you losers get kissed? lol lol lol!

    Sentiment: Sell

  • When a company is forced to sell stock at a HUGE discount to Book Value, it's SELF EVIDENT that something's wrong, something's VERY wrong. Wake up and smell the scent of poop, ONPoop! lol lol lol, lmfao!

    Sentiment: Sell

  • ONP currently has 18,750,000 shares issued and outstanding. Thus the dilution is 12.5% and as far as I know 12.5% is GREATER than 10% by TWENTY FIVE percent. You dopes better say "thank you" for another free math lesson! lol lol lol, lmfao!

    Sentiment: Sell

  • arsenio_hola_farquhar arsenio_hola_farquhar Aug 29, 2014 11:53 AM Flag

    Come on Tim, more LIES? Nobody here complained about the "going concern" warning ONP themselves made that warning. Fact is ONP themselves made that warning when they reported 2nd quarter earnings. Truth is it's in their latest 10Q filing, look it up you loser, it's on page 45.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Time for board clown Timothy the dope@40 to fess up and admit the error of his asinine ways. lol lol lol!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Settlement Date Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover

    8/15/2014 98,055 44,549 2.201060
    7/31/2014 96,406 20,414 4.722543

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Page 45....

    Item 1A. Risk Factors.

    Other than the additional risk factor set forth below, information about risk factors for the three months ended June 30, 2014, does not differ materially from that set forth in Part I, Item 1A of the Company’s 2013 Annual Report on Form 10-K.

    There is doubt as to our ability to continue as a going concern.

    As of June 30, 2014, the Company had current assets of $32,215,826 and current liabilities of $40,949,564 (including amounts due to related parties for $2,406,262), resulting in a working capital deficit of approximately $8,733,738; while as of December 31, 2013, the Company had current assets of $25,953,328 and current liabilities of $28,372,723 (including amounts due to related parties for $2,266,961), resulting in a working capital deficit of approximately $2,419,395. We are currently seeking to restructure the term of our liabilities by raising funds through long-term loans to pay off liabilities with shorter terms. Our ability to continue as a going concern is dependent upon obtaining the necessary financing or negotiating the terms of the existing short-term liabilities to meet our current and future liquidity needs. Although management believes it can secure financial resources to satisfy the Company's current liabilities and the capital expenditure needs in the next 12 months, there can be no guarantee that we can secure these financial resources. Therefore, there is a substantial doubt about the ability of the Company to continue as going concern. Our condensed consolidated financial statements do not include any adjustments that might be necessary if we are unable to continue as a going concern.

    We have been engaged in various efforts to mitigate our working capital deficiency:

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Most contacts expect the largest producers to keep the market in balance near term through selective downtime, but some are less optimistic about prices later this year and in early 2015 when another wave of new capacity is scheduled to start up during the seasonally slow demand period.

    Packaging Corp. of America is scheduled to complete its 355,000 tons/yr DeRidder, LA, "D-3" virgin containerboard conversion in November, possibly followed by SP Fiber Technologies startup of a converted 200,000 tons/yr machine at its Newberg, OR, mill later this year or early next year.

    Pratt Industries will be bringing on its 360,000 tons/yr Valparaiso greenfield recycled containerboard mill in the third quarter of 2015, while IP is looking at reactivating an idle 400,000 tons/yr at its Valliant, OK, mill (though probably as part of a larger mill system restructuring). And that does not include announced and unreported incremental expansion projects as companies use their new-found cash flow to carry out long-deferred projects to upgrade their existing containerboard machines.

    "I'm concerned about where prices are headed unless there is a real pickup in box demand or some permanent capacity closures," one contact said. "How long can the price of linerboard continue to levitate?"

    Cascades in its conference call said that its new Greenpac partnership mill produced 104,000 tons of linerboard and achieved breakeven earnings in the second quarter. After a fire system malfunction that caused three days of downtime in early August, the 540,000 tons/yr machine is "really running well now and we still expect to fully ramp up in the next three months," according to Norampac CEO Marc-Andre Depin. He said the machine had increased production of lower basis weight grades (26 lb and below) and said its new Greenpac XP "super strong" coated board was "progressing well."

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • The 1.4 million tons of new lightweight recycled containerboard capacity entering the market since the spring of 2013 has created a widening "chasm" between recycled containerboard and kraft linerboard prices. The $20-30/ton discounts on recycled containerboard that started in the Northeast in response to even deeper discounts on some startup tonnage have spread down the mid-Atlantic and into more competitive areas of the Midwest, according to contacts.

    'Double dipping' on medium. PPI Pulp & Paper Week last month showed a $10/ton reduction in semichemical medium prices to reflect gradual erosion in prices since last fall in response to the "undertow" caused by the drop in recycled medium prices. Major producers in their conference calls claimed that they had seen no reduction their semichemical medium prices and even "shock" at the price reduction.
    "Some suppliers have blinked when faced with the prospect of losing not only orders but long-time independent customers," one contact said.

    But the main instability in pricing this month was from "double-dippers trying to get another $10 reduction in medium after the drop in the published price even though they may have received a $10-20/ton reduction sometime earlier in the year," one contact said.

    "Kraft linerboard continues to defy the laws of gravity but I'm not sure how much longer that is going to last," another contact said. Prices for 42-lb unbleached kraft linerboard, however, remain around the $625-635/ton level in the East and most sellers said they have not received much pressure from independent converters to reduce prices.

    More competitive box prices? "Independent converters are currently in the comfort zone with fairly decent demand and the recent discounting on recycled containerboard prices," one contact said.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Inventories jump 82,000 tons. Containerboard inventories at box plants and mills increased 82,000 tons in July to 2.44 million tons. This compares to a five-year average increase of 92,000 tons and 10-year average increase of 88,000 tons. Inventories at box plants rose by 124,000 tons, while mill stocks dropped by 42,000 tons.
    "The absolute inventory is 8% higher than the five-year July average (2.253 million tons) and 4% higher than the 10-year July average (2.351 million tons)," according to Alex Josephson of KeyBanc. But companies in their recent conference calls said that due to longer shipping times and less availability of rail cars and trucks it is more cost effective to hold some extra inventory.

    Weeks of supply in July increased to 4.3 weeks from 4.0 weeks in June and was "the highest weeks of supply for July since 2003's 4.7 weeks," Chip Dillon of Vertical Research Partners noted.

    Mills throttle back 96%. US containerboard mills ran at 96.1% in July, down from 97.1% in June. Operating rates for linerboard mills increased slightly to 96.8% from 95.9% the previous month, while medium mill rates dropped to 94.3% from 100.1% in June, American Forest & Paper Assn (AF&PA) reported.
    The decline in medium operating rates reflected RockTenn's (RKT) indefinite July closure of two medium machines with a combined capacity of around 30,000 tons/month at its Seminole mill in Jacksonville, FL, and West Point, VA, mills.

    Virgin/recycled price chasm. Total containerboard production declined 0.4% in July to 3.052 million tons, with linerboard output jumping 1.9% and medium declining 6.3% from a year ago. Recycled linerboard production showed the only growth among the four major containerboard grades, jumping 15.7% in June to 504,000 tons, while recycled medium declined 8% reflecting the closure of the two medium machines and virgin liner and medium showed small declines.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

ONP
1.59-0.01(-0.62%)Sep 17 4:00 PMEDT

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