Love your optimism. I am long, and have a sense of panic too. I have sold half my position already. A 15% haircut on thursday would really hurt my feelings "Scared money" has.no business being in Nok before earning. Come on Baby. Roll the Dice! I hand a bundle on the 9!
On April 1st, Kantar (a British market research company that forms panels in order to research customer behavior and attitudes in a range of industries, including but not limited to the telecom industry) released a research report which was no joke. The report looked at the American smartphone market to examine the latest trends. In the period from November of 2012 to February of 2013, 51.2% of the smartphones sold were based on Android (GOOG), which represents a growth rate of 5.8% compared to the same period a year ago. iOS (AAPL) followed Android closely with a market share of 43.5%. This was no surprise; however, there was one surprise element in the report. Windows Phone (MSFT) accounted for 4.1% of all smartphones sold in the period, which is significantly up from 2.7% last year. The market share gain was mostly due to Nokia (NOK) and the company's Lumia phones.
Furthermore, Windows Phone's market share gain was not limited to the US either. In the UK, the operating system's market share grew from 3.0% to 6.7%, which represents a more than double growth rate. Nokia represents a significant portion of this number, as the Lumia series alone claims a market share of 5.6% in the country. In Germany, the operating system's market share grew from 6.3% to 6.7%. In Italy, Windows Phone represents a market share of 13.1% compared to the 5.4% of market share last year. In Australia, Windows Phone's market share doubled from 1.7% to 3.4%. In Mexico, the operating system enjoyed a market share of 5.9% compared to 5.2% last year. Finally, in urban China, Windows Phone enjoys a market share of 1.5%, but Kantar did not provide the data for the previous year in this particular country.
from seeking alpha
Nokia: Rising Profit Picture at NSN Doesn’t Change $4 Target Google it. this article ran on Feb 19.
NSN Expects Flat Broadband Market march 21 google it.
overcome this difficult situation, the company is concentrating on its core mobile broadband business and is reducing its operating cost by retrenching employees and selling its non-core business units. NSN plans to lay off 17,000 or 23% of its work force and expects the restructuring to result in an annual cost reduction of approximately $1.35 billion by 2013.
It seems that the restructuring measures have yielded positive results as the company achieved its first ever operational profit in the third quarter of 2012. The positive news continued as sales in North America also soared by 20% last year, thereby increasing pressure on arch rival Alcatel Lucent S.A. (ALU).
Telecom carriers around the world are investing in network upgrade mostly in Long Term Evolution (:LTE) to support massive demand for mobile data and video. NSN has been part of this growth story and has only come second to industry leader Ericsson (ERIC), in gaining LTE contract. In the fourth quarter of 2012, NSN has won contracts worth $451.40 million.
Inspite of these positive news, we believe that the macroeconomic uncertainty in the developed markets remain a concern for the company as carriers could reduce their infrastructure spending to tide over the difficult situation.
Some of my enthusiasm shown in my other post has waned.
Just read the article under yahoo news. Wish I knew more about the author. Everything he said made sense. An IPO will really shake things up. I have been very concerned about earnings in April. This article may cause me to throw caution to the wind. Another 50K is available in other stocks in my portfolio. my diversafication will go to blazes. Someone calm me down!!! How long does it take to bring an IPO to market and wouldn't there be mention of the IPO already. An IPO would be REAL news.
Looks like the market thinks Q1 Earnings may very well miss! The very few sales volume reports that I have seen suggest "iffy" total volume. Saw one report of Nokia celebrating sales of "2 Million phones" in China.
Only problem was there were very few Lumias reported. Most were older 2G phones. Europe figures were in the Thousands. Can anyone reference a more positive projection?
Lots of varity coming to various global markets. Sadly, any sales volume from those offerings will only come in the second quarter. Why the Lumnias can't get any traction in Q1 is a Huge Question.
I assume Elop and Co. provided conservative quidance. If a "miss" occurs, take a guess how low the stock price will go. My enthusiasm is exhausted.
The Z10 being sold today may be producing a knee jerk reaction for NOK.today. BBRY
SP today isn't that great. Strange how everyone thinks the new BB will bury the Lumias. As always proof is in the pudding.
Reducing my NOK holdings today! Two months of steady Stock Price slide is very disappointing. Seems as if only the second quarter has any promise.
Look for Alternatives. SkyDrive may not be the answer to what you wish to do. That App may have usefulness for some
activities and people will use it. In your case just plug in your phone with the microUsb to normal USB data cable to your PC.
Under "Computer" select the Nokia Phone, open it to find your desired pictures. Transfer the jpeg files to a "ThumbDrive".(you can get 2 Giog drives for less rhan $5.00
Take the thumbdrive to WalMart or any developer that can use those files to produce prints.A Fee will be charged. No worse than SkyDrive.
Sorry if this violates an Investment Board protocal. Don't believe I saw any mention of my trying to help you as a violation of board TOS.
Ouch, the no news ending is one of my problems. Fresh news does not necessarily mean "good" news. The investor community action can reflect reality too. The last two months have been harsh!
I guess the end of April will reffect the next "news" . That 200DMA may not look so positine.
All these wonderful varied huge new product announcements around the world has only drawn a great big "yawn" Maybe some traction will show by June. Probably best if we ignore all the technicals.
This stock blew thu the 61% fib. Do we now blow thru the 50% and reach for the 38% at 3.06?
I guess the Fib has ominious meaning if the stock drops into the 2's. Ahh! Technicals!!!!
Fibs don't apply if a stock is doomed!! At least we have one more level to blow out before running for the hills.
I guess we could tinker with the theory and add a 25% level. If that one doesn't hold we could add a 10% level
Shorts are the only happy ones. We longs just keep track of our losses.
We may be on the same page. Sure would hate to be in a geat buying opportunity when I am down $100,000, like the poor guy I referenced. I thought NOK just might make me a little money. Hope is eternal!
Great questions. Questions I grapple with. Will NOK go brankrupt? Don't know. If the bugs in the OS aren't cleared immediately. There could be trouble. Will MSFT be shut out of the mobile market.
Don't know. I want to believe Microsoft can succeed. They have the resources to hang in there. NOK can't hang in their much longer. I just can't evaluate how good the OS is. If I can't tell and the market is suggesting NOK is in trouble, what do you do. NOK may make good hardware, if the software is flawed, what do you do? I think I will have plenty of time to get back in and ride this company to success. Should success be forthcoming. Agreed, there are no guaratnee's.One has to make ones own decisions. Best of Luck to you!
Or I may be the guy next door that can't square the recent stock performance with the blind
faith exhibited by some on this board. I read a lot of words in your response.. What was it you said?
Other than I breath too much air! The simple fact is I may start losing money in this investment tomorrow. How long should I hang on? How do you account for the past two months? If you are losing money how long will you remain in the investment?
I know there are those of you that have an average buy-in under $2.00. You still should be upset at the performance here. That fellow explaining his investmrent to his wife with an average buy-in of $4 something must be in a hotel by now. My investment in NOK is ready to turn negative. $4.70 dwilding down to 3.47
must make me an idiot for staying with a "falling knife" this long. I just did't believe NOK was a falling knife. I have no way to judge this stock except what little I read and my basic belief this will be a successfful company. I will be one of those "weak hands" tomorrow if NOK has another down day. Something has to be wrong!! India Taxes, Low margin price structure, some inherient flaw the investment community is aware of. application flaws that don't function consistently.. Processes that lock up to overtax the processor. overtaxed processor overheat. perhaps damaging that chip. Somebody knows something. No one seems to say this OS blows their socks off. I have a 920 and I have several issues with its functionallity. Makes me wonder why I didn't go with an iPhone! The new app Photosynth is a big step up that makes the 920 at least equal to thw iPhone in that specific regard. How many people are beginning to realize there is much work needed to make this WP8 OS as "Whiz Bang " that it needs to be. Next Earnings report may loom larger than any of us know.
If a big "Miss" is rung, up This stock will be "Short Heaven" I just hope the "business model" leaves room for a little profit. Clearly I don't get it. Is this company once again hanging on by a thread. I am not a "shortie" or a basher. Someone tell me again why I should be excited about the long term health of this company. and explain how that optimism squares with the recent 6 week performance.
Earnings in Jan gave a small bump. Otherwise its been all downhill.for six weeks.Barcalona was a disappointment. If anything the lack of news further reinforced that NOK cannot and will not compete in the tablet market. The many phones NOK is releasing all over the world, exciting ths board, is creating a big
Yawn from the Market. Just why is that the case?
Is the promise of thse many phones selling a false promise?
Is it the margin on these phones are going to require huge volumes to make any meaniful profit?
All this speculation of a SP of 6 or 8 or 10 + is offensive. Present a case for NOK making it to and sustaining $4.00 SP. Promise is meaningless. All I see is reality. The competition isn't standing still. even China's own will challange NOK
It is becoming very difficult for me to continue holding this stock.
AnyTablet may never get released. Just can't compete with Google giving away the Android platform!
No one appears impressed with the many diverse phones hitting the market. Nasty battle going on between Google and Microsoft. MSFT may be in big trouble. Bt extention NOK will follow.