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artif 5 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 24, 2016 9:40 AM Member since: Dec 1, 1997
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  • artif artif Mar 24, 2016 9:40 AM Flag

    This contractual ambiguity gives me pause. How can you invest when such a key point is unclear? Are renewal clauses different in the contracts of other Brazilian hydro operators?

  • Reply to

    List of Cemig's Hydro Plants

    by artif Feb 11, 2016 10:10 AM
    artif artif Feb 12, 2016 7:56 AM Flag

    For a partial list search on this string: Principais Reservatórios do Brasil
    As of yesterday, February 11, 2016,
    Sao SImao 90.66% (but, mustn't CEMIG give it up soon? I don't know.)
    Emborcacao 42.57
    Nova Ponte 29.29%
    Tres Marias 26.87%
    These levels are up from 6 weeks ago, but still low. The historical pattern suggests, there will be about 2 more months of rainy season.

  • Searching Cemig's website I haven't yet found recent info.
    Here's an outdated list of plants.
    (* means concession wasn't renewed or is contested. I don't know current status.)
    Sao SImao 1710 MW*
    Emborcacao 1192 MW
    Nova Ponte 510 MW
    Jaguara 424 MW*
    Miranda 408 MW*
    Tres Marias 396 MW
    Volta Grande 380 MW
    Irape 360 MW
    Salto Grande 102 MW
    Itutinga 52 MW
    Camargos 45 MW
    In late November they acquired at auction 700 MW more at cost
    of R$2.2 billion.
    BTW, nobody here is going to make the stock rise by suppressing negative info. The
    adrs we trade are the tail of the dog. The dog trades on the Brazilian exchange where
    they're well aware of the reservoir levels.

  • Reply to

    Risks of CIG

    by meninoderio Feb 3, 2016 11:36 AM
    artif artif Feb 6, 2016 6:22 PM Flag

    Southern Brazil never really experienced this drought. Minas Gerais is hundreds of miles north of Iguacu. The rains have been strong for the last month, but the reservoirs are still low on average for this time of year.
    In northern Brazil the drought is still devastating. A theory is that deforestation is disrupting the formation of air flows which until now drew Atlantic Ocean moisture deep into the continent, all the way to the Andes, and then back east.
    Without that natural "pump" much of Brazil could turn into another Sahara. OTOH there have been droughts
    in Brazil before, but this one is the worst in atleast a hundred years.

  • Reply to

    Risks of CIG

    by meninoderio Feb 3, 2016 11:36 AM
    artif artif Feb 5, 2016 10:10 AM Flag

    The debt is entirely denominated in Brazilian currency. That's much better than if they had borrowed
    U.S. dollars.

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