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EV Energy Partners LP Message Board

artist_formerly_known_as_pooch 12 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 5, 2014 11:00 AM Member since: Jul 14, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Any thoughts on where we are heading?

    by bigbear.2010 Dec 4, 2014 9:54 AM
    artist_formerly_known_as_pooch artist_formerly_known_as_pooch Dec 5, 2014 11:00 AM Flag

    Agreed on flavor of the month, Right now oil is the new natgas. worthless. But 2 years from now $150 oil makes 80bpd wells into gold. these weak energy prices are touching everything. EVEP midstream should be coming online, question is, will volumes be there? It's a problem all are facing right now. Throw a dart at an E&P and you'll see a ski slope chart.

    (( my 80 bpd comment came from a research report that quoted Walker, I've since deleted it, but the gist of the quote was that the completion techniques are improving and that wells in the oil window are shoing 80bpd and they are seeing much improved performance recently and expect even better performance in the future. It stuck with me because, even though he sees much better well performance, I thought to myself that at 80bpd, that's huge dry hole risk. Drop a bit down the hole or miss your target, that well cost weighs heavily on your next few 80bpd wells))

  • Reply to

    Cause for concern?

    by silentcinder Nov 26, 2014 11:35 AM
    artist_formerly_known_as_pooch artist_formerly_known_as_pooch Dec 3, 2014 9:26 AM Flag

    While I don't think a distribution cut is imminent, it's not as far fetched as the scneario you laid out. What you say is true, BTW, but EVEP hasn't had sufficient DCF to cover the distribution in nearly 2 years. We're still waiting for the sale of the land in the oil window where wells have been producing 80bbl oil per day. That isn't the answer to what ails EVEP. It took over 2 years for Walker to admit the land sale was mis managed. It takes these guys long time to communicate what is happening right in front of their eyes. They are maintaining their streak of "raising" the distribution by .001 per quarter. Obviously a cynical, phony act to mainain their streak of "raises". But assuming they truly believe a raise of .001 qualifies as a "raise". Why are they raising the distribution when it hasn't been covered in 2 years??? Either way you look at it, they come out looking like idiots.

    No new money from me for EVEP until they actually demonstrate they have a clue.

  • Reply to

    Effect of Price of Crude

    by jane_dunnie Nov 27, 2014 1:43 PM
    artist_formerly_known_as_pooch artist_formerly_known_as_pooch Nov 27, 2014 2:40 PM Flag

    Effect on activities....not much. Less $ for NGLs. possibly more volumes on increased demand for oil. Effect on "stock price". A ton. Anything liquid (trading volume) will be sold to meet margin calls.

    When oil hurts, all energy equities suffer

  • artist_formerly_known_as_pooch by artist_formerly_known_as_pooch Nov 26, 2014 8:28 AM Flag

    Is the ETE K-1 simple and straightforward like most other MLP's or does it have a lot of sub entries for the other MLP's it owns? Haven't owned ETE in a number of years but am looking to get back in. I remember some years ago when I owned EPD and it's then gp EPE, I had a lot of sub entries for DEP, Teppco, and I believe ETE.

  • Reply to

    need some info from been there people

    by stomvi87 Nov 24, 2014 5:19 PM
    artist_formerly_known_as_pooch artist_formerly_known_as_pooch Nov 26, 2014 6:31 AM Flag

    Happy thanksgiving rbb and all. I wish you all well.

  • Reply to

    need some info from been there people

    by stomvi87 Nov 24, 2014 5:19 PM
    artist_formerly_known_as_pooch artist_formerly_known_as_pooch Nov 25, 2014 12:27 PM Flag

    EVEP was a steady, reasonably performing MLP until about 4 years ago. Then they started promoting their land in Ohio as being the ticket to paying for all of their future acquisitions. Read the posts, we were all going to be rich beyond our wildest dreams. The market priced that accordingly. one analyst, Ethan Bellamy has a $130 or so price target. The company put 100% of it's efforts into the land sale. M&A was halted. But then they dithered on the sale of the land. The then CEO and now Chairman touted in interviews that he was such a tough guy that he wasn't afraid to walk away from deals. and from reports from the company and others, that's what he did. Walked away from Billion dollar plus offers. They call the man, the Walker. Problem is better offers didn't come. The offers got smaller. The CEO's buddy, Aubrey McClendon got run out of town. The "sweet spot" moved further south. Oil prices fell and the value of oil land fell faster. They fire saled some of the better acreage.

    Long story short, the land is now worth far less than what it once was valued at. Meanwhile the 3 years worth of M&A absence killed growth in the core business. The distribution hasn't been raised in years and hasn't been covered by cash flow for nearly as many years.

    EVEP is probabaly still trading for a bit higher than it's finances would warrant. There is still hope the land will be sold and wells be bought. My kids were in little leauge when that was the storyline. My kids are now moving in to their retirement homes.

    You won't be hurt like we were buying here. You aren't likely to see $40 anytime soon and won't see $50 without something transformative here. $70 oil hurts all energy players. It hurts those hoping to sell unproven oil land even harder. Every energy player has land of their own to sell right now. It's a buyers market and EVEP is on the wrong side of that equation

  • Reply to

    SECONDARY QUESTIONS

    by govpur Nov 10, 2014 11:30 AM
    artist_formerly_known_as_pooch artist_formerly_known_as_pooch Nov 19, 2014 11:33 AM Flag

    As I was saying. Targa is also a GP in the space. They went public at $18 wand were majority owned by Warburg Pincus. WP over time sold their Targa shares as oxy is doing. In the 4 years or so Targa has been public, they've gone from $18 to $120 today. these secondary shares will get digested and they'll resume their rise. the offerings aren't dilutive and because this company is so closely held, many funds cannot own it. It is a potential risk that oxy might someday vomit all the shares up in one day on the open market. Not going to happen, but is one of those black swan events that rules are made for. oxy divesting opens doors.

  • Reply to

    SECONDARY QUESTIONS

    by govpur Nov 10, 2014 11:30 AM
    artist_formerly_known_as_pooch artist_formerly_known_as_pooch Nov 18, 2014 3:44 PM Flag

    Take a look at the history of TRGP. They were closely held by Warburg Pincus. TRGP came public about 3 or 4 years ago at $18. I know, I got 100 shr allocation. LOL I badly wanted far more. Over the years WP sold their shares the way OXY is. TRGP is around $120 today. The OXY shares coming into the market like this have minimal impact and, to some extent are beneficial as some funds canu0027t hold PAGP precisely because of how closely held it is. Theyu0027ll get digested, resume their rise upward. Rinse and repeat. If you plan on adding, plan your purchases around these events.

  • artist_formerly_known_as_pooch by artist_formerly_known_as_pooch Nov 11, 2014 7:35 AM Flag

    7 consecutive quarters without covering the distribution. That says it all.And yet, they claim to have "increased" the distribution in each of those quarters. There are mistakes and there are lies. I have a hard time writing this off as just a mistake.

  • Reply to

    WAKE-UP !!!

    by rbb40 Oct 15, 2014 4:14 PM
    artist_formerly_known_as_pooch artist_formerly_known_as_pooch Oct 17, 2014 6:46 AM Flag

    EVEP got a big bump yesterday on CHK's sale of dry gas land. Unfortunately EVEP already sold a lot of their drygas land. We are left with the oil window with oil at $83 bbl

    Kicking myself for how much I lost on this one. Even though I cut my losses by selling some, hindsight says I should have sold all. Hindsight says that some of my later buys above $60 were truly delusional. (I did buy most units in the teens 20's and 30"s, but dollar value wise, the buys in the 60's were very significant)

  • artist_formerly_known_as_pooch artist_formerly_known_as_pooch Oct 10, 2014 1:17 PM Flag

    The only problem with the oil window ace, which i do admit is one of those unknown unknowns, is that oil at $80 per bbl makes that oil window far less attractive. Regardless of whether they "crack the code" or not, the land will never be as productive for oil as the dry gas areas are for gas. The area isn't prone to "gushers". It's a matter of whether the land is "economic" or not. The area just took a $20 penalty in the last couple months. A lot of the US has become uneconomic in that period, not just the Utica oil window.

  • artist_formerly_known_as_pooch by artist_formerly_known_as_pooch Oct 10, 2014 8:57 AM Flag

    Good grief, 3 years later, the guy who says he's not afraid to say no, finally realizes the correct answer was YES? Yo, Johnny, we paid for your mistake. A lot of people trusted you. Houser? the last 3 years, not to mention the news article, show exactly who calls the shots here. My portfolio is recovering from my outsized EVEP losses. Not there yet, but healing. No thanks to EVEP itself.
    I once thought that regardless of the losses on the Utica hype, at least the distribution was safe. Well, the distribution hasn't been covered in a long time and Cowboy Johnny is talking Acquisitions now? John, you missed that boat. that should have been done in the last 3 years. Now is the time to heal the balance sheet. 2 years from now, you'll be admitting another mistake in buying now and not after the coming E&P shakeout. Assuming we aren't one of the carcasses being picked over.

EVEP
24.00+1.37(+6.05%)Dec 17 4:00 PMEST

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