Exactly Edisney. That's the kind of forward thinking we need here. I want EVEP to succeeed. I want to see $70 again so ALL my units are green. Bought some yesterday at 12.12. they have an opportunity here. they need to stop with the silly gunslinger bets and start treating this like a conservative income growth vehicle. Cutting the distribution now and growing it with the growth in DCF/unit is the MLP model. More MLP. Less Aubrey McClendon gambling.
Look at the news. The selloff today is they cut the dist to 5.5 cents next quarter and will then embark on a monthly payout of 1.5 cents per month. news is on the yahoo quotepage and on the fund website
it gives them breathing room. dollars that don't go out the door in distributions are dollars available for asset buys. Its dollars that dont have to be raised in secondaries. This company has good assets but it has abysmal management who thinks they are geniuses because they lucked into some really great property. They will come through this if they just show some common sense. The market is pricing in a cut. They are getting a free pass right now. Take it! I'd be willing to bet a cut would put a bottom in on the unit price.
That's what I'm betting on. I believe today it became real for them. I bought a few at 12.12. Walked away from the computer when it went under $12 and had made up my mind to bite the bullet. I'm not going to put big money on them. I'm betting on a 50% cut and that still is a double digit yield.
It'll show that they are prudent managers of our money and our assets. (I don't believe they are. I believe their bankers and fund unitholders will lean on them hard to do so)
Fire Walker. Fire Houser.
this is an annual event. every year at this time they convert their grants of phantom units into common units. These are free shares we give them. they vest 1 year later and are converted at Long Term Capital Gains rates. Every year like clockwork since I've been here. Constant supply of free shares for a management team that has driven this company into the ground.
They haven't covered the distribution in 7 quarters. Hedging $3.40 gas, two years from now doesn't solve their problems. Spending .77 per unit every 3 months does not make a lot of sense in this environment. At best, they may survive to maintain the distribution over the next 2 or 3 years. Or they can cut it. Take whatever little punishment is left as the street is expecting it and become a distribution raiser in a year or so. Real raises. Food for thought, when they first started paying in the 70's, Gas was $5 + and oil was $80+. This company is built for a different environment. It is not heroic for the senile lying POS to close his eyes and make believe it is 2005. Time to run this like a real business.
SEC filings Form 4's They've been landing in my inbox one by one maximizing the annoyance.
these slimy hoorz running this company are getting their annual mother load of performance bonus shares. I always hated that about these clowns. this air of entitlement. No wonder EVEP sold off so hard today. Must have seen Walker and houser firing up the G5 en route to the Caymans.
iv bry Msg 162160 of 162188 at 1/18/2015 9:54:53 AM by
Birds eye view of Utica here in Ohio
Yesterday was such a nice day here in SE OH (Thank God) I decided to jump in the plane and take a tour of the area to see what was going on with existing and new Utica pads. I flew over most of the sites in Washington, Noble, Morgan, Guernsey counties and the theme was very evident. Not a single piece of equipment moving. Rigs on site looked stagnant and obvious lack of pickups and support equipment! This supported everthing I am hearing about everything has come to almost a complete halt around these parts. The talk is that we will wait out the winter and see what spring brings before going back into action. If pricing doesn't recover significantly by April when the frost laws come off my opinion is that the actual return to exploration will be minimal at best in the Utica BWTFDIK
View from this sky reporter
TRADE WELL and PROSPER...TODD1956
Or people looking at the long range forecast and seeing the January thaw. Remember, we had a generational winter last year and nearly su ccked our storage dry, yet we nearly refilled it to capacity over the summer. This is a normal to slightly warmer than normal winter so far. Unless it suddenly gets much colder, this is about the peak for Natty this winter.
Oil looks to be normalizing, but the dollars strength will still be a risk to further oil gains. Word out of Ohio is there is a lot of oil and gas pain. Activity that can be cut is being cut. Workers being laid off. Rigs being laid down.
Seriously, who is a strong player buying assets right now? SWN buying Chesapeake's land was the last deal. And a couple days ago, SWN gagged on the deal and announced a secondary. Who is doing well and buying midstream? KMI has it's hands full right now. MWE has 2 customers that are near insolvent. TRGP is over a barrel with Atlas. EPD is too disciplined to play this game. They'll wait for the fire sale. Land? Midstream? Everyone is concerned with survival right now. There will be a time to buy EVEP, right now is not the time. I am an EVEP unitholder. .
Look around. The whole sector is being sold off hard. Look closer at Ohio. Rigs are being laid down. Workers being laid off. Wells are not being drilled. This selloff is the real deal. EVEP price isn't going to get "respectable" next week. The only guidance is how bad the pain will be. EVEP isn't immune to what is happening in the sector. EVEP has a below average management team and lots of assets that do not produce cash and cannot be sold. This isn't the bottom. You will see EVEP yieding well over 20% before this is done, assuming they do not cut.
House rich, cash poor
The Atlas Energy filings are on EDGAR. They filed the 2nd revision of the prospectus on Jan 7. That is normal, BTW. The SEC makes comments and sends it back multiple times. Kinder wnet through it. LINE did with BRY. Goto Edgar and search for Atlas Energy. Unfortunately the link cant be posted here. CIK number is: 0001623595.
As for the exchange rate. It's either a reverse split for the new atlas or a change in the exchange rate. Otherwise you'll have a pink sheet stock unable to be listed on an exchange. Does not matter if it is Reverse split or the exchange rate changed. The ownership percentage will remain the same and total distribution landing in your account will remain the same.
ARP may ultimately have to lower it's distribution. All E&P MLP's will eventually if oil and gas remain here. All of their distributions were priced for a different world. Hedges only work for temporary disruptions, 2 years or so. This is a multi, multi year change in pricing. No one saw it coming. No one. There is no healthy E&P out there. All are bleeding profusely.
Also, keep in mind, though oil prices are in the toilet and EVEP is predominately a gas company, look how gas storage is running this winter. We went from a record deficit after last winter and filled storage nearly completely up at these low prices. This winter is tracking slightly warmer and after this single frigid week, we have a January thaw coming next week. We are looking to exit this winter at normal or above normal storage. Production which covered our deficit last year in less than a season are now poised to have us at a glut next winter.
Producers of gas and oil have a dilema and need to dial back production. We'll see gas with a $1 handle before we see gas with a $4 handle. That directly affects EVEP's production, it's asset sales, and it's hedging.
That's why I point out the hedges for 2017 and 2018 that will be bought in the next 18 months. Or not.
That .77 paid to me every 3 months doesn't do me a lot of good when my unit price is going dowm $5 every 3 months. Fix the company first. Then pay me a distribution. Don't pay me based on hoped for sales. Pay me after the sale.
Yes their hedges. And what are they going to do for 2017 and 2018 as far as hedges? Are they not going to put on any hedges? If they do, they will lock in todays prices as the curves are not very favorable right now. Fly naked? Or just put off the decision for another year while paying out .77 to unitholders? As for attaining 1.0x? they haven't been able to do that the past 2 years and the hedges during that period were more favorable than today.
You describe a scenario where they will be able to maintain the distribution. I waant to see EVEP return to growth mode. Something we haven't seen in 4 years. To do that they need to preserve precious cash. That's where I'm coming from. Take half of my .77 per quarter and use it to opportunistically buy assets later in the year.
Also, keep in mind prices in the Utica for gas and liquids are lower than HH Spot. As for UEO, take a look around at other midstream companies cancelling and delaying projects. They aren't growing their own assets, they won't be buying other company's assets especially Utica assets. There are no buyers for NGLs and there is no takeaway for the monster amounts of dry gas further east. Don't get me wrong, UEO is a worthwhile asset. It just isn't a worthwhile asset to sell right now.
I think you underestimate how much the landscape has changed in the last couple months. No one has their checkbook open. Right now we have a free pass to re calibrate the distribution for the new reality. We should take it. If the landscape changes next year, EVEP would then be a distribution raiser.
the scneario you describe, best case scenario is more of the same with the hopes of possibly reaching 1.0x. There are better opportunities out there
They don't need to do a reverse split, they can simply ammend the prospectus to reflect 1/4 share of the the stub per ATLS share. Just as in a reverse split, the value of the company is the same, the only difference is the number of shares. I believe when ARP came out, it was on a fractional basis. I know I had an odd number of shares (which I sold early)
Some adjustment will need to be done regardless of listing requirements. A $5 or less stock runs into limitations in funds and institutional holdings being prohibited from holding low priced or pennystocks
It will be seen as an MLP in danger of cutting. The question was asked, wouldn't the unit price go down if EVEP cuts. The answer is YES BUT. Yes, it might go down intially, but it would give EVEP much healthier cash flow and balance sheet. And when prices recover, EVEP would become a distribution raiser. That will do wonders for the unit price.
The point is, we are all underwater right now. Lets position the partnership for a healthier 2016 and beyond. Take our medicine now, feel #$%$, and then recover strong.
Hedges are going to run out. there are no more $4 futures prices. EVEP is not built for $3 gas. NGLs are no longer rescuing EVEP and other Utica producers. The line was always, we can survive $3 gas because the liquids are value added. Well liquids are in worse shape now than gas is.
I want to see $70 again. The way EVEP is striuctured, that isn't going to happen in the next 3 or 4 years.
I think that, lost in this washout in oil, that owners of terminals, product (gasoline, diesel) pipelines, and tank farms will mint money in this environment. Storage demand is going up. Store cheap oil to be sold further out the curve. Gasoline demand will be off the charts as North America takes to the roads in their Escalades and Suburbans. BORCO will turn out to be genius as Crude and Condensate will be parked there.to be shipped to world markets.
Friendly wager. I don't want to put words in your mouth, but I believe you feel that EVEP A) will not cut B) Will sell something, presumably midstream and C) will cover the distribution 1.0x sometime in 2015.
My take is EVEP *Either* Will Cut or else, they will not cover the distribution in 2015. That if they do sell something, it will be seen as a distress sale and likely will only provide enough liquidity to stave off a secondary and will not provide enough capital to buy producing assets.
Either way, Capex will be reduced 30% or more. (If I'm not mistaken, they have been reducing the budget the past 2 years and have not been utilizing the entire budgeted amounts)
You and I want the same things--we both want the unit price to rise and the distribution to increase. But I believe Walker horribly mangled up a golden opportunity to do so. I've been here since around 2009. For a few years, life was good as my purchases in the low teens were wonderful producers. I sold *some* in the 30's and 40's before I understood the Utica hype. I bought back in the 40's 50's and do have a small buy above 70.
I've completely lost patience for Walker's happy talk. Every CC makes it seem that we are on the verge of breaking through. I'm sorry, but Walker and Houser are either completely incompetent or pathological liars. I've had many conversations with Mercer. He is brighter about what he says and promises, but has never done much to tamp down Walker's happy talk.
Circling back, EVEP has good assets. But they've been horribly mis managed. Their hedges saved them 2009-2012. Their hedges are only average now and the entire E&P space will be faced with producing in the future at today's prices as the curves for oil and gas are not very favorable for hedging right now. That is why it is imperitive to curtail drilling now. Oil andGas in the ground isn't going away unless it is sold for ridiculous prices.
Increasing production is not a virtue right no
Who are the buyers for UEO? This is not an expansion environment. Buyers are looking to steal assets LAND/Plant/Pipe from sellers that need to sell of file BK. UEO may have issues of it''s own if drilling slows. There needs to be customers for the gas and NGLs. gas is cheap and getting cheaper. Ethane is practically a waste product nowadays. There isn't anything in the NGL barrel anymore that has much value.
EVEP's best alternative is to hunker down and allow the storm to pass. Unless you are a buyer, this is not a good dealmaking environment. The smart E&P's are resetting their distribution schedule. EVEP is getting no credit for having a .77 distribution. There is little penalty to be had in cutting it to .35 and would free up a ton of cashflow. Then when EVEP starts raising the distribution again, it would be raising it by honest and legitimate amounts. Not this phony .0001 raises where it's a 1 cent raise every 2.5 years and isn't even covered.
Getting close to 1.0 and raising .0001 per quarter. Or coverage of 1.2x and raising .01 or more per quarter.
I see the latter as doing a whole lot more for us unitholders. EVEP will be given a pass for cutting because this is a desperate environment we are in. EVEP will get punished badly if they fail to deliver yet again or have to firesale property they wouldn't sell for billions 2 years ago,.