The stock is AAPL's M&A currency. Shore up the stock price with available cash and move forward. Using Cash for M&A is counterproductive. Makes for a taxable event for the seller, no advantage for AAPL
Max out the buyback into a 12-1 split beginning H2 2014. Announce a 50 billion buyback availability based on financial metrics (similar to BRKB buyback program). Increase dividend 10% over last year.
Aquisitions are best for both parties done with stock anyways. Cash can better be used investing in the stock. Spend the stock when M&A makes sense.
Also, probably a lot of recent activity are from funds wanting this off their books for end of quarter window dressing. Who wants to be seen holding a stock that lost 20% or more. Buying coming back in as long term value is seen. Also, seen as a rebound play. Recovering half it's recent losses would make for a nice gain if bought here.
Sooner or later there will be upgrades based solely on valuation. A $39 price target would be a strong buy at 20% upside from here. That's still significantly less than the 52 week high. I'm not proposing that we'll get there anytime soon, just pointing out that an upgrade at this level wouldn't have analysts sticking their necks out.
when it went under 32, I started to enter the order, got distracted by a phone call and by the time I was done was looking at a 32.22 ASK. So the intent was 31.90 but the execution was $32.20
In any event I'm full up now. wasn't going to buy more but the bottom dropping out this morning suggested capitulation to me.
(( COG is at an Oil and Gas investor conference this morning )))
(Reuters) - Cabot Oil & Gas Corp plans to accelerate share buybacks due to what it considers the depressed levels of its stock, its chief executive officer said on Tuesday.
Shares of Cabot are down 9 percent in the past six months due in part to concern about the company's inability to transport some natural gas out of Pennsylvania's Marcellus shale formation. As a result, it must sell the fuel at below market rates.
"We think the price Cabot is at right now is beat up a bit and we will be in the market shortly," CEO Dan Dinges said at the Howard Weil energy conference in New Orleans.
The company has roughly 417.3 million shares outstanding. (Reporting by Ernest Scheyder; Editing by Jeffrey Benkoe)
And one final point of emphasis-- I brought up the expectations of 50% -100% distribution increase, look where we are now in terms of distribution. 2 years later, less than 1 c increase and the discussion is now about being focused on COVERING 1.0x that distribution and there are murmurs (still unfounded at this point) about a cut to the distribution.
Investor expectation played no role at all in EVEP not covering it;'s distribution That's 100% walker/Houser/Mercer.
I believe the distribution is secure for now, but the distribution cut storyline becomes fair game when multiple sub 1.0x quarters appear. If EVEP performed above 1.0x any distribution cut discussion would be ignored as ridiculous. Walker/Houser/Mercer created that storyline, not anyone here
I agree--I don't blame management for unrealistic expectations here and in the analyst community (Ethan) but managment did, on a conference call, float the idea that Utica sales could increase the distribution 50% within a year and when one analyst floated the idea of doubling it, you could see the wink and the nod through the phone. Now, fine, we disregard the wink and the nod part, but increasing the distribution 1/2 cent over 2 years is nowhere within a million miles of doubling it in a year. That's management. Walker stomped his feet over deal by year end even when John Leguizamo posed the infamous "53 days til the end of the year" question. That's all managment.
So I fault managment on botching the deal
I fault management for pushing the year end theme for FAR FAR too long
I fault managment for floating the 50% distribution increase and allowing it to persist even beyond the "year end" fiasco.
I fault us for believing what was patently absurd and perpetuating Walker's KoolAid.
Walker isn't a Genius. Walker isn't unit holder friendly. Walker is the run of the mill dirtwarter MLP CEO/Former CEO. He struck gold once and believed his own press. Unfortunately so did we
I' still holding a reduce position. I'm not seeing a lot of reason to pile back in right now. 8% income is good. But there are other plays for capital appreciation right now.
I need you guys to start buying here. My $37 cost basis is starting to feel real heavy.
The Chesapeake well will be turned on this summer and the Halcon well is already in production. The initial production rates are "encouraging, said EV Energy Partners president and CEO Mark Houser.
The two wells were backed financially by EnerVest Ltd.
Pittsburgh-based EQT Corp. intends to follow up its 2013 volatile oil well with an additional 21 wells to be drilled in 2014, he said. "This is certainly encouraging," he said.
His company will be working with EQT Corp. as it proceeds to drill in the oil window, he said. "We will closely monitor their activity and results and apply learnings to our own activity," he said.
EQT has drilled three wells with limited results in Ohio’s Guernsey County. But it intends to seek the oil with the 21 new wells in that county.
Houser’s company still wants to form a joint venture with another company to drill eight to 10 wells in the volatile oil window in Stark and Tuscarawas counties as pilot project.
Chesapeake, with whom EV Energy Partners has teamed up to drill in 10 counties in eastern Ohio, is also eying the oil window, Houser said.
That partnership that also involves the French company Total has drilled 371 wells in Carroll and surrounding counties. Another 180 wells are planned in 2014.
EV Energy Partners has about 81,000 acres in the volatile oil window. It has been busy on hydraulic fracturing studies and reservoir stimulus modeling as ways to boost oil production.
By Bob Downing Published: March 3, 2014
Drillers in Ohio’s Utica shale are increasingly interested in drilling in what’s been called the volatile oil window.
EV Energy Partners on Monday said it expects to participate financially in at least eight to 10 wells in the volatile oil window in 2014.
It says it intends to drill at least two volatile oil wells later this year, along with privately held EnerVest Ltd., its parent company.
Efforts to tap that oil in eastern Ohio have not been successful but new plans are being developed.
Most Ohio drilling has been to the east in an area generally called the wet gas window because drillers have been able to get natural gas, condensate or oil and natural gas liquids including ethane, butane and propane.
The volatile oil window covers all of parts of Portage, Stark, Trumbull, Tuscarawas, Holmes, Coshocton, Guernsey, Muskingum, Perry, Morgan, Athens, Vinton and Hocking counties.
Two of those volatile oil wells have been drilled with one already in production, said company executive chairman John Walker in a conference call with financial analysts.
One was drilled with Oklahoma-based Chesapeake Energy Corp. and the other with Texas-based Halcon Resources.
By Bob Downing Published: March 3, 2014
Texas-based Halcon Resources has suspended drilling operations in the Utica shale in eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania.
The suspension was confirmed today in an email from the company.
Halcon Resources currently has no rigs running in the Utica shale, said spokesman Jordan Beadling in Houston.
He said the company currently has a well flowing back and a well resting, and it is waiting on results from these two wells.
"At this time, we do not plan to move in any rigs this year," he said.
The company has three producing wells in Trumbull County, where one additional wels has been drilled, one well is being drilled and three have been permitted.
In Mahoning County, it has one producing Utica well with two additional wells permitted.
It also has drilled Utica wells in western Pennsylvania in Mercer, Venango and Crawford counties.
It has leased about 139,000 acres in Ohio and Pennsylvania.
I hate to say it, but these guys cannot get out of their own way. 3 years ago they (and we) were speculating on whether the distribution would go up 50% or double. Now they are talking about being focused on getting the distribution over 1.0x. Looking at this afternoon;'s presentation, again they are flat on guidance unless they sell acreage. So again, frozen in place waiting for the big deal.
They also have a "differential" problem as all other Marcellus/Utica producers have. They don't get the NYMEX price you see on TV. They get less. If someone buys the acreage--they will too
yep-- I had been nimbly trading this for a few months-- saw the carnage going into earnings and took my money off the table. Got distracted by catching falling knives at COG and missed the bounce here. I'll ease back in, but definitely screwed d pooch on this latest trade
I sold 2/3 over the past week. Every E&P has been beat down bad whether they beat or miss. EVEP being in freeze off areas aren't likely to beat.
you make gains on the hedges if gas goes down. You lose money on the hedges if gas goes up. Hedges are insurance. You lose money on life insurance if you stay alive. You gain if you die. So don't have a problem with them losing money on insurance they turned out not to have needed. They went uninsured a few years ago and lost big selling gas into the market. These results are part of the long slog out of CHK's near death experience. They were telegraphed when CHK made the COS announcement. CHK will be punished today. Can't win for losing here. It will get better in time.
Also, weather related--Fracing. They don;t frac much in the arctic. Zero degree weather makes trucking water in dicfficult. Makes handling the water itself difficult. As for designing wells to maintain flow. True-- that's done far more in Pennsylvania than Texas obviously. But even against PA standards, this has been a rough winter. Do you spend the extra money and plan as if this winter is the norm? Or do you plan for a more "normal" winter. And regardless of how much you plan -- you are still sometimes at the mercy of your contractors and downstream customers.
Don't get me wrong-- I'm not here to make excuses for a huge miss, but Gas in the northeast that couldn't be given away in the fall was going for $100 for a few days this winter. There Obviously was a weather /infrastructure impact going on somewhere in the system.
It seems EVEP has been light on the roadshow circuit this year. I think they did 1 show so far this year? Reading between the lines can make you go blind (or broke) No shows because they are wrapping up a deal? No shows because they have nothing new to talk about? No shows because Walker and Houser are hard at work in the offices? No shows because it impacts Houser's job interview schedule?
I'm not going to speculate which it is. Just that they aren't getting out as much.
NGL's freeze preventing gas from flowing. They actually freeze at a fairly high temperature. Wells done on cold diggers are on the open artic tundra using arctic equipment, not wells in bubba's backyard using the same equipment used during a 90 degree summer. Weather in Ohio and Pennsylvania is seasonal. The arctic is what it is. Wells would cost a ton more if done like they do in the artic.