I assume you mean Ukraine. Next to that many coal mines in the Donesk area have been badly damaged by the rebels and this is making the energy situation worse.
The Middle East will explode one day. It may take a few months or even a few years. Libya is also out of control. How long will it take for problems to start in countries like Saudia Arabia, The Emirates, Qatar, etc.? Beneath the surface in most of these countries trouble is brewing big time. Assets in the USA are and will remain safe.
It is indeed. As some of you may know KWK is sitting on a lot of unproven reserves and now that drilling is picking up, although still at a low level more producing wells will be reported in the next couple of months. Thus increasing cashflow and enabling KW to increase it's capex thus increasing production and bringing unproven reserves into proven developed reserves. We will get there.
it will double within 12 months from now. Uptrend should resume within the next 1 month or so.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
This winter will be the true test where the rest of the world could see exactly what Putin may or may not be up to. “I think he’s waiting for the first cold snap this winter to really put the stick down where it matters,” Dicker posits, “and that is inside the economies of eastern Europe and also with regular people who he can literally freeze out of their homes.”
He notes that Putin has done it before (in 2006 and 2009) with a lot of success. In short, he’s winning. “In the end it’s very hard to maintain governments that are western leaning when somebody else controls pipeline into your economy,” Dicker argues. “And I think over the long haul he’ll be very successful at extending his reach across borders - not just Ukraine but [Poland] in particular must be frightened to death.”
Just came across this:
The situation in Ukraine sent stocks lower earlier this morning as Russia ordered a convoy of aid trucks to cross the border into eastern Ukraine, apparently without Ukraine's permission. NATO condemned the border crossing, claiming it would "only deepen the crisis in the region."
While the actions and rhetoric heat up, don't be surprised if ultimately this battle isn't fought with guns and airstrikes. The next cold war is here but it’s not about weapons says Dan Dicker, President of MercBlock. “This latest cold war that I see coming is very much based upon the control of energy resources, particularly in Russia which is by far the largest energy producer in Asia, as well as the United States which is becoming the largest energy producer here in the west.”
It may seem counterintuitive given the way Putin’s Russia has locked horns with Ukraine with real weapons and not merely the threat of shutting down their pipelines (though of course he’s done that too). Still, Dicker believes the long game is about no less than bringing many of the nations that once made up the Soviet Union back into Russia’s favor and away from western influence.
“I would think he’s frightened to a certain degree of the expanse,” Dicker says. “But then again there is this desire to extend as far west as you can particularly because he controls the natural gas supplies for virtually everyone in the old SSR as well as many on the nations just west of that. Latvia 100%, Poland 100%, Romania 100% - many of the other baltic states 100% of the gas resources.”
So what is the west to do? Very little Dicker says calling sanctions “ a very, very weak arrow in a very small quiver of things you can do.”
more next post.
coming week is being viewed as crucial to resolve the Ukraine crisis Merkel, Putin, etc. are all meeting each other early next week. Failure will be a huge setback and may very well lead to fighting between Ukraine and Russia (there are reports now that Russian artillery/troops have entered the Ukraine today and are shelling Ukrainian forces) The Ukraine has now 50% of it's gas needs for the winter and can not build it up anymore. They started to ration gas usage. Ukraine pipelines deliver 15% of Western Europe gas requirement
can't find the post. Could you point out to me where I can find it? TIA.
you are welcome. I hope I did my DD well. FWIW: the 2016's are stable today, although on small volume, between 60 to 62. 2019's not traded yet.
seems you have a lot of spare time on your hands to be wasting your time on a stock you don't even own nor in which you see potential in the near-term. Probably you got nothing better to do with your time. Great life.
Forgot to add this: last year before the refinancing of debt was announced the 2016's were trading in the low 80's. Once refinancing was announced they moved towards between 96 to 102. Because they were not refinanced they dropped back towards the low 90's. And then crashed in tha last few months. The co has made fundamental progress between before the refinancing announcement and now: they are increasing their annual production, they have lowered their costs, they are drilling more wells, and they have pushed out some maturities, and NG prices on average are higher in 2014 then they have been in 2013 thus increasing the value of the reserves. And estimates are that NG will be higher in 2014, 2015, 2016and 2017 then they are now. I don't see any justification for the bonds at the current levels.
I think that the 2016's are way undervalued. This is due to: (a) tremendous flight to safety which has been ongoing in the markets since the Ukraine problem started; (b)and in the past few weeks huge outflows of money from the high yield market due to fear of rate increases by the Fed has put more downside on all HY bonds; (c) add to that disappointment with the 2016's holders that the co still has not announced a HRB deal of which the proceeds would be used to redeem the 2016's; (d) and the markets don't know what the unproven reserves and acreage of KWK are worth as the co has never given an indication of this except say that HRB could hold 14 Tcfe reserves potentially; and (a) and (b) leading to downward pressure with almost no buying interest created a completely illiquid market thus extending the downside in the bonds tremendously. You can see this in the daily trading range of almost 10 points. Small sell orders are being filled around the 55 level and 1 mln plus purchases are filled around 64 to 65 level. I think we should see some stabilization starting around the 62 - 64 level which will be followed by higher prices as we move into Q4 2014 as I then expect the co to announce asset sales or a JV. It takes a couple of months to give interested parties the time to do their DD.