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Chiquita Brands International Inc. Message Board

aruba270155 1809 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 19, 2014 4:07 PM Member since: Jun 15, 1999
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  • Reply to

    the bonds

    by aruba270155 Aug 19, 2014 11:21 AM
    aruba270155 aruba270155 Aug 19, 2014 4:07 PM Flag

    yes, I'm holding 100.000 face value. The 2019's are safer then the 2016's as they have seniority over the 2016's.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • aruba270155 by aruba270155 Aug 19, 2014 11:21 AM Flag

    are doing a bit better with most trades (some in size) on the buy side, 2016's stable around 64,50, 2019's around 85.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • aruba270155 aruba270155 Aug 18, 2014 3:43 PM Flag

    can't find the post. Could you point out to me where I can find it? TIA.

  • Reply to

    interest payment on bonds

    by aruba270155 Aug 15, 2014 2:37 PM
    aruba270155 aruba270155 Aug 18, 2014 11:36 AM Flag

    you are welcome. I hope I did my DD well. FWIW: the 2016's are stable today, although on small volume, between 60 to 62. 2019's not traded yet.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    KWK: continue downside in the near term

    by littledumbdoctor Aug 17, 2014 7:08 PM
    aruba270155 aruba270155 Aug 17, 2014 7:47 PM Flag

    seems you have a lot of spare time on your hands to be wasting your time on a stock you don't even own nor in which you see potential in the near-term. Probably you got nothing better to do with your time. Great life.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    interest payment on bonds

    by aruba270155 Aug 15, 2014 2:37 PM
    aruba270155 aruba270155 Aug 17, 2014 1:08 PM Flag

    Forgot to add this: last year before the refinancing of debt was announced the 2016's were trading in the low 80's. Once refinancing was announced they moved towards between 96 to 102. Because they were not refinanced they dropped back towards the low 90's. And then crashed in tha last few months. The co has made fundamental progress between before the refinancing announcement and now: they are increasing their annual production, they have lowered their costs, they are drilling more wells, and they have pushed out some maturities, and NG prices on average are higher in 2014 then they have been in 2013 thus increasing the value of the reserves. And estimates are that NG will be higher in 2014, 2015, 2016and 2017 then they are now. I don't see any justification for the bonds at the current levels.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    interest payment on bonds

    by aruba270155 Aug 15, 2014 2:37 PM
    aruba270155 aruba270155 Aug 17, 2014 11:41 AM Flag

    I think that the 2016's are way undervalued. This is due to: (a) tremendous flight to safety which has been ongoing in the markets since the Ukraine problem started; (b)and in the past few weeks huge outflows of money from the high yield market due to fear of rate increases by the Fed has put more downside on all HY bonds; (c) add to that disappointment with the 2016's holders that the co still has not announced a HRB deal of which the proceeds would be used to redeem the 2016's; (d) and the markets don't know what the unproven reserves and acreage of KWK are worth as the co has never given an indication of this except say that HRB could hold 14 Tcfe reserves potentially; and (a) and (b) leading to downward pressure with almost no buying interest created a completely illiquid market thus extending the downside in the bonds tremendously. You can see this in the daily trading range of almost 10 points. Small sell orders are being filled around the 55 level and 1 mln plus purchases are filled around 64 to 65 level. I think we should see some stabilization starting around the 62 - 64 level which will be followed by higher prices as we move into Q4 2014 as I then expect the co to announce asset sales or a JV. It takes a couple of months to give interested parties the time to do their DD.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • aruba270155 by aruba270155 Aug 16, 2014 3:37 PM Flag

    I think that due to the ongoing problems with Russia and ISIS in the Middle East the value of oil and gas assets in the U.S.A. will have to become more and more important for those countries who don't have enough own resources of oil/gas. There has been a huge fundamental change in the fundamental attitude of Europe vs Russia, I'm dutch and track the developments in Europe on a dially basis. The confidence of Europa in Russia has been completed shattered and major backers of Russia (Germany. the Netherlands) have changed their attitude so Europe wants to free itself from it's dependence (30% of it needs) on Russia's NG. Then we have the ISIS wracking disaster in great parts of Syria/Irak and they most probably want to expand their power to the whole of the Middle East. And they hate the West. What happens if they control more and more of the Middle East oil/gas assets? I for one think that in the longer-term we will be seeing more and more buying of US based oil/gas assets by foreign companies. Hope this may be beneficial to KWK also.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    interest payment on bonds

    by aruba270155 Aug 15, 2014 2:37 PM
    aruba270155 aruba270155 Aug 16, 2014 11:11 AM Flag

    Interest was paid yesterday on the 2019's.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • aruba270155 by aruba270155 Aug 15, 2014 2:37 PM Flag

    due 2019 is due today. If co makes payment, which I expect, then it would foolish to speculate on a BK.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • aruba270155 aruba270155 Aug 15, 2014 11:27 AM Flag

    If a judge can say that VRNG's has no patent what's the use of counting on other patents that have been assigned by the US Patent Office?

  • Reply to

    insider buying

    by pepsiberger Aug 15, 2014 10:15 AM
    aruba270155 aruba270155 Aug 15, 2014 10:20 AM Flag

    Although I'm not sure of it I think insiders are not allowed to buy now as the co has hired Credit Suisse for potential refinancing, sale of assets or the whole co. They would be involved in any ongoing discussions with any interested parties.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • aruba270155 aruba270155 Aug 14, 2014 4:55 PM Flag

    where major shareholders in a co disclose if they changed their holdings (sold, bought, unchanged) .

    Sentiment: Buy

  • aruba270155 aruba270155 Aug 14, 2014 2:38 PM Flag

    Based on the year-end 2013 proven developed reserves net cash value and using $ 4,50 NG average estimate for 2014 I calculated that year-end 2014 the proven developed reserves should be worth around $ 2,05 bln (using upr-end of all costs and 38% tax rate). Tried to value the 130.000 acres HRB using price paid per acreage and other JV figures in HRB and I get to a value between $ 260 mln yto possibly $ 950 mln. Didn't look at the other acreage, etc. Total debt $ 1,98 bln. Do your own DD.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • aruba270155 by aruba270155 Aug 14, 2014 12:55 PM Flag

    The small investors are still being scre we d in these bonds. Small sell orders are executed towards low 50's while large buy orders are filled between 62 to 64. Range today 50.25 to 65, now 64.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • aruba270155 by aruba270155 Aug 14, 2014 12:21 PM Flag

    Natural gas inventory showed a build of 78 bcf vs expectations for a build of 81-83 bcf.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    BK filing imminent?

    by necm500 Aug 13, 2014 1:55 PM
    aruba270155 aruba270155 Aug 13, 2014 2:09 PM Flag

    bonds are not going down the drain. The 2019's are steady around 84% vs yesterday around 82%. The 2016's are trading so now and then on very small lots at 63% with more average size trades around 65-66%.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    do not buy

    by mitjapari Aug 8, 2014 12:57 PM
    aruba270155 aruba270155 Aug 9, 2014 12:25 PM Flag

    iYou should do your own DD as you own the stock, it's does take some time.
    a. One company, I forgot the name and need to look it up in my notes, in 2011 paid $ 2000 per acre in the Horn River Basin. At the time of this purchase there was no idea at all if these acres indeed held NG but the co was willing to pay this price as in surrounding fields it had been proven that they held substantial amounts of NG.

    I believe KWK already did drill some succesful wells in it's acreage of the HRB and if so I would assume that KWK's acreage should get at least $ 2000 p/a or more which gives a $ 260 mln value.

    b. Feb 2010 Kogas Canada closed a JV with Encana, had to invest $ 548 mln over a 3 year period to earn a 50% interest in 154.000 acres of Encana in HRB. That's $ 7.117 per acre.

    Based on this price KWK's would be worth $ 925 mln but I don't have the exact info on the potential 14 Tcfe that KWK claims it's acreage has. So would take this value with a grain of salt for the time being.

    One thing is for sure: HRB acreage of KWK has a lot of value which has not been factored into the co's valuation at all.

    All IMHDO.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    do not buy

    by mitjapari Aug 8, 2014 12:57 PM
    aruba270155 aruba270155 Aug 8, 2014 3:53 PM Flag

    Go do a google search on what companies paid per unproven acreage in the Horn River and you may get a good idea about what KWK"s acreage it worth at minimum. Do some sound research before posting.

    Sentiment: Buy

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