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Quicksilver Resources Inc. Message Board

aruba270155 62 posts  |  Last Activity: 9 hours ago Member since: Jun 15, 1999
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  • Reply to

    FWIW:

    by aruba270155 11 hours ago
    aruba270155 aruba270155 9 hours ago Flag

    This winter will be the true test where the rest of the world could see exactly what Putin may or may not be up to. “I think he’s waiting for the first cold snap this winter to really put the stick down where it matters,” Dicker posits, “and that is inside the economies of eastern Europe and also with regular people who he can literally freeze out of their homes.”

    He notes that Putin has done it before (in 2006 and 2009) with a lot of success. In short, he’s winning. “In the end it’s very hard to maintain governments that are western leaning when somebody else controls pipeline into your economy,” Dicker argues. “And I think over the long haul he’ll be very successful at extending his reach across borders - not just Ukraine but [Poland] in particular must be frightened to death.”

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    FWIW:

    by aruba270155 11 hours ago
    aruba270155 aruba270155 9 hours ago Flag

    Just came across this:

    The situation in Ukraine sent stocks lower earlier this morning as Russia ordered a convoy of aid trucks to cross the border into eastern Ukraine, apparently without Ukraine's permission. NATO condemned the border crossing, claiming it would "only deepen the crisis in the region."

    While the actions and rhetoric heat up, don't be surprised if ultimately this battle isn't fought with guns and airstrikes. The next cold war is here but it’s not about weapons says Dan Dicker, President of MercBlock. “This latest cold war that I see coming is very much based upon the control of energy resources, particularly in Russia which is by far the largest energy producer in Asia, as well as the United States which is becoming the largest energy producer here in the west.”

    It may seem counterintuitive given the way Putin’s Russia has locked horns with Ukraine with real weapons and not merely the threat of shutting down their pipelines (though of course he’s done that too). Still, Dicker believes the long game is about no less than bringing many of the nations that once made up the Soviet Union back into Russia’s favor and away from western influence.

    “I would think he’s frightened to a certain degree of the expanse,” Dicker says. “But then again there is this desire to extend as far west as you can particularly because he controls the natural gas supplies for virtually everyone in the old SSR as well as many on the nations just west of that. Latvia 100%, Poland 100%, Romania 100% - many of the other baltic states 100% of the gas resources.”

    So what is the west to do? Very little Dicker says calling sanctions “ a very, very weak arrow in a very small quiver of things you can do.”

    more next post.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    FWIW:

    by aruba270155 11 hours ago
    aruba270155 aruba270155 10 hours ago Flag

    I know but it puts much more importance on having reliable long-term sources of energy of which only the USA is safe.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • aruba270155 by aruba270155 11 hours ago Flag

    coming week is being viewed as crucial to resolve the Ukraine crisis Merkel, Putin, etc. are all meeting each other early next week. Failure will be a huge setback and may very well lead to fighting between Ukraine and Russia (there are reports now that Russian artillery/troops have entered the Ukraine today and are shelling Ukrainian forces) The Ukraine has now 50% of it's gas needs for the winter and can not build it up anymore. They started to ration gas usage. Ukraine pipelines deliver 15% of Western Europe gas requirement

    Sentiment: Buy

  • aruba270155 by aruba270155 Aug 21, 2014 3:50 PM Flag

    higher on small trades, now around 68. 2019's steady at 86

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    the bonds

    by aruba270155 Aug 19, 2014 11:21 AM
    aruba270155 aruba270155 Aug 19, 2014 4:07 PM Flag

    yes, I'm holding 100.000 face value. The 2019's are safer then the 2016's as they have seniority over the 2016's.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • aruba270155 by aruba270155 Aug 19, 2014 11:21 AM Flag

    are doing a bit better with most trades (some in size) on the buy side, 2016's stable around 64,50, 2019's around 85.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • aruba270155 aruba270155 Aug 18, 2014 3:43 PM Flag

    can't find the post. Could you point out to me where I can find it? TIA.

  • Reply to

    interest payment on bonds

    by aruba270155 Aug 15, 2014 2:37 PM
    aruba270155 aruba270155 Aug 18, 2014 11:36 AM Flag

    you are welcome. I hope I did my DD well. FWIW: the 2016's are stable today, although on small volume, between 60 to 62. 2019's not traded yet.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    KWK: continue downside in the near term

    by littledumbdoctor Aug 17, 2014 7:08 PM
    aruba270155 aruba270155 Aug 17, 2014 7:47 PM Flag

    seems you have a lot of spare time on your hands to be wasting your time on a stock you don't even own nor in which you see potential in the near-term. Probably you got nothing better to do with your time. Great life.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    interest payment on bonds

    by aruba270155 Aug 15, 2014 2:37 PM
    aruba270155 aruba270155 Aug 17, 2014 1:08 PM Flag

    Forgot to add this: last year before the refinancing of debt was announced the 2016's were trading in the low 80's. Once refinancing was announced they moved towards between 96 to 102. Because they were not refinanced they dropped back towards the low 90's. And then crashed in tha last few months. The co has made fundamental progress between before the refinancing announcement and now: they are increasing their annual production, they have lowered their costs, they are drilling more wells, and they have pushed out some maturities, and NG prices on average are higher in 2014 then they have been in 2013 thus increasing the value of the reserves. And estimates are that NG will be higher in 2014, 2015, 2016and 2017 then they are now. I don't see any justification for the bonds at the current levels.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    interest payment on bonds

    by aruba270155 Aug 15, 2014 2:37 PM
    aruba270155 aruba270155 Aug 17, 2014 11:41 AM Flag

    I think that the 2016's are way undervalued. This is due to: (a) tremendous flight to safety which has been ongoing in the markets since the Ukraine problem started; (b)and in the past few weeks huge outflows of money from the high yield market due to fear of rate increases by the Fed has put more downside on all HY bonds; (c) add to that disappointment with the 2016's holders that the co still has not announced a HRB deal of which the proceeds would be used to redeem the 2016's; (d) and the markets don't know what the unproven reserves and acreage of KWK are worth as the co has never given an indication of this except say that HRB could hold 14 Tcfe reserves potentially; and (a) and (b) leading to downward pressure with almost no buying interest created a completely illiquid market thus extending the downside in the bonds tremendously. You can see this in the daily trading range of almost 10 points. Small sell orders are being filled around the 55 level and 1 mln plus purchases are filled around 64 to 65 level. I think we should see some stabilization starting around the 62 - 64 level which will be followed by higher prices as we move into Q4 2014 as I then expect the co to announce asset sales or a JV. It takes a couple of months to give interested parties the time to do their DD.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • aruba270155 by aruba270155 Aug 16, 2014 3:37 PM Flag

    I think that due to the ongoing problems with Russia and ISIS in the Middle East the value of oil and gas assets in the U.S.A. will have to become more and more important for those countries who don't have enough own resources of oil/gas. There has been a huge fundamental change in the fundamental attitude of Europe vs Russia, I'm dutch and track the developments in Europe on a dially basis. The confidence of Europa in Russia has been completed shattered and major backers of Russia (Germany. the Netherlands) have changed their attitude so Europe wants to free itself from it's dependence (30% of it needs) on Russia's NG. Then we have the ISIS wracking disaster in great parts of Syria/Irak and they most probably want to expand their power to the whole of the Middle East. And they hate the West. What happens if they control more and more of the Middle East oil/gas assets? I for one think that in the longer-term we will be seeing more and more buying of US based oil/gas assets by foreign companies. Hope this may be beneficial to KWK also.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    interest payment on bonds

    by aruba270155 Aug 15, 2014 2:37 PM
    aruba270155 aruba270155 Aug 16, 2014 11:11 AM Flag

    Interest was paid yesterday on the 2019's.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • aruba270155 by aruba270155 Aug 15, 2014 2:37 PM Flag

    due 2019 is due today. If co makes payment, which I expect, then it would foolish to speculate on a BK.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • aruba270155 aruba270155 Aug 15, 2014 11:27 AM Flag

    If a judge can say that VRNG's has no patent what's the use of counting on other patents that have been assigned by the US Patent Office?

  • Reply to

    insider buying

    by pepsiberger Aug 15, 2014 10:15 AM
    aruba270155 aruba270155 Aug 15, 2014 10:20 AM Flag

    Although I'm not sure of it I think insiders are not allowed to buy now as the co has hired Credit Suisse for potential refinancing, sale of assets or the whole co. They would be involved in any ongoing discussions with any interested parties.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • aruba270155 aruba270155 Aug 14, 2014 4:55 PM Flag

    where major shareholders in a co disclose if they changed their holdings (sold, bought, unchanged) .

    Sentiment: Buy

  • aruba270155 aruba270155 Aug 14, 2014 2:38 PM Flag

    Based on the year-end 2013 proven developed reserves net cash value and using $ 4,50 NG average estimate for 2014 I calculated that year-end 2014 the proven developed reserves should be worth around $ 2,05 bln (using upr-end of all costs and 38% tax rate). Tried to value the 130.000 acres HRB using price paid per acreage and other JV figures in HRB and I get to a value between $ 260 mln yto possibly $ 950 mln. Didn't look at the other acreage, etc. Total debt $ 1,98 bln. Do your own DD.

    Sentiment: Buy

KWK
1.32-0.05(-3.65%)Aug 22 4:00 PMEDT

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