irving,
Remember, though, a $2,500 MacBook Pro has mass consumer appeal and is in many ways dramatically superior to the $800 Dell (better screen, better flash, faster processor, better GPU, superior physical design, an OS that the user prefers), but an SSD is just that...an SSD. Joe Schmoe can't tell the difference between an OCZ high end SSD and a Kingston SSD, and quite frankly, OCZ doesn't have a brand that can command any premium.
Many people will go with Samsung, Intel, and Crucial SSDs for the brand and image of reliability/quality, and I just don't think OCZ has that kind of mindshare. And, to put salt in the wound, those three brands all have access to NAND fabs and keep the margin that OCZ or any other fabless player would be paying. It's just a tough biz.
Anyway, I hope this investment works out for you and I hope I'm wrong, but the odds are really stacked up against OCZ here...best of luck to you.
$90 by xmas? Are you high?
It's called taking a gutsy risk, and that's why I like Nvidia.
irving,
don't know if you have me on ignore or not, but here's how I see it. Not having their own NAND fabs is a big problem, albeit if they shift to enterprise only that is overcome. But the question is how well design win traction pans out in the enterprise, which is where the company is betting itself on. bold move, and the next controller that the co puts out will be enterprise focused (perhaps modified BF3), but it will take much, much more than a controller.
FIO is in the dumps, OCZ's enterprise traction has been terrible, and I'm sure when Violin and other IPO, those will be good shorts too.
I just don't see a future for these standalone SSD guys. Either they get taken out by the bigger fish, either on the system/storage solution side of things by having some really valuable, hard-to-develop technology, or they'll go bankrupt. You know my views on what's more likely for OCZ, but as always time will tell.
Will do, buddy.
Wallis,
Victory is sweet, eh? Finally the air is being let out of this bubble.
ARM should be priced like a utility and have a dividend yield commensurate with that industry.
Thank you for your response. It is very much appreciated. Great discussion :)
Intel is my highest conviction long position, and I think they will do very well in mobile devices. But Apple seems hell bent - from aggressive hiring of CPU teams, to what I've heard of them trying to poach Intel CPU engineers (I do have friends at Intel who have been contacted by Apple) - on keeping its CPU/SoC designs in-house.
Welcome to "ignore".
Agreed. If you think the hype around "Apple could switch to ARM for Macs" is bad, think of how bad it would be for Intel if every other day we heard, "Apple may switch foundries, leaving Intel's fabs idle"?
The Android ecosystem is going to eat Apple alive in this space, and I would much prefer Intel is on the winning team.
merlot_1,
Why do you think I would never own Apple? Microsoft's Windows 8 tabs, as well as Android, will eat Apple's products alive long term.
Intel will be a major winner in phones/tabs, but it won't be by slapping the faces of its own engineers and building Apple's designed chips ;)
The whole Nasdaq is tanking. Why is that surprising? If Intel fab'd Apple's chips, they would be shooting their own mobile strategy in the face, and it would be low margin city forever.
Long term investors want Intel to take huge market share with its own chips, not to be dependent on Apple.
Bell is not a chip guy, but a device guy. This move makes perfect sense.
Whatever makes you feel better about panic buying OCZ at $1.33.
"post hidden because you ignored this user"
I'm sure what you had to say was completely unfriendly and immaterial to the discussion at hand.
Morgan Stanley recommends that investors short ARMH on valuation/Silvermont concerns, etc.
I am very glad that you listened to me and took your profits on this. This is going to get very ugly very quickly.
Excuse me for a moment, but #$%$?
I made these arguments MONTHS ago!
tbh, don't really watch the price action much anymore. The less I watch, the more it seems to go up :)
Don't forget MIPSy!
I think that a lot of the "backlog" may have been pushed into the Q1 results to engender that beat so East could go out a hero. Poor Simon Segars may be left holding the bag for Q2's results.