They didn't include it because mgmt does not expect material sales from Merrifield. This was supposed to be the "knock out, kill ARM" part, but the market moved too fast. Moorefield will be Intel's next chance at bat, but I suspect the real traction doesn't come until Broxton.
Just as we both predicted - ARMH is now back above $50. Does the market realize, however, that despite the "we'll fab for anybody" bit that Intel could do the exact same thing that it's doing with tablets to phones? ;-)
Hi uppereastboy, sorry. Here is the response:
Basically, Intel has all of the right IP/technology to succeed in this space, but the company miscalculated with some of its products. For example, Bay Trail - which is a great performer, btw - was designed for the high end of the tablet market AND the low end of the PC market. See, when you're selling a $50+ chip into the low end PC market or a $30-$40 chip into the high end tablet market, you can afford to have a die size of 102mm^2 (this is very close to a PC "Ivy Bridge", btw) for the entire SoC.
On top of that, the Atom was designed for a "rich" bill of materials. In other words, all of the components that surround the chip on the PCB (i.e. the board on which all of the chips go) were fairly expensive. Further, since the Atom didn't have things like Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, GPS, etc. built onto the die, anybody building a Bay Trail system would need to buy a separate combo chip from either QCOM, BRCM, or MRVL to get that functionality. These are about $4-6, so it's a non-trivial adder for a $199 tablet.
But that's where SoFIA comes in. It integrates Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, GPS, and cellular onto one relatively small chip. It's not as fast as Bay Trail, but it's more highly integrated which makes life easy for the system vendors as well as Intel (the die size of SoFIA is smaller than Bay Trail IIRC).
The company also hinted that Broxton would be more highly integrated. It won't have cellular, but I highly suspect that it'll have Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, and GPS (i.e. connectivity).
Basically, anytime somebody says "DERP INTEL NEEDS ARM" they're just clueless. This is all about picking the right design points for the products you're building, and it seems under Perlmutter, the company underestimated QCOM/NVDA at the high end and it missed the mark on the low end, leading to the situation we have today .
But the bottom line is that this will be corrected by 2015.
Sure - I'd be happy to give you a detailed explanation. I'll be back in about 20 minutes with a reply (just taking care of something at the moment). Don't want you to think that I'm leaving you hanging/ignoring your question.
Also, 100% agree that I have no effect on the share price. That is not my intention and I'd be a delusional fool if I thought that I could "move" Intel.
I am just an investor who loves to share his thoughts with the investment community.
No, don't worry, I won't write a "jillion" Intel S.A. articles. I write when I have something to comment on, or when people ask me questions that require detailed answers. I am quite content to write about the 70+ other stocks that I'm interested in.
I actually have you on ignore, but occasionally peek to see if you've posted something worth responding to. Nope, you're just accusing me of trying to drive traffic like the low-life that you are.
I'd happily debate points with you, but as long as you accuse me of trying to "drive traffic" and to "spread FUD", then you're not really worth explaining anything to. After all, I'm just here trying to get your click, right? LOL
(I get paid a fixed rate per article for the vast majority of my work, so the claim that I'm trying to drive traffic is utter nonsense)
ARM's problems certainly don't get a free pass, but the death of RT is something we've all predicted for a long time.
Nobody wants a crippled version of Windows when they can have the full version for the same price. The people who predicted that ARMH would get 10-15% of the traditional PC market thanks to RT were sniffing glue.
No TD-SCDMA, no TDD-LTE, no CDMA, no carrier aggregation, built on 40nm TSMC process. Pretty worthless for any tier-1 handset.