It has been fun, but it's time for me to leave these boards - at least for a good while. They've degenerated into something that I no longer want to be a part of, and quite frankly the sheer hate directed towards me - both from the bashers and the frustrated longs - is no longer something I see the need to deal with..
I remain very long Intel and I see a very bright future ahead once we get through 2013. I am sure wallisweaver will keep you guys up to date with the news and he'll offer what I believe to be a pretty solid view of things. Marsavian will continue to act as the board's best BS detector, and theblueredmonk will add some balance now and again. semi_equip_junkie will bring you the latest with respect to what the chip equipment companies are doing, and how that could impact the industry. Oh, and I can't forget Intel_Fanboy whose cogent posts are always a delight to read.
To those of you who attack me personally, realize that my job is tougher than yours. While the only thing you have to worry about is your own brokerage account, I have to worry about mine and, at the same time, need to be right more often than I am wrong when discussing the numerous stocks that I cover. In fact, nobody really remembers you for being right for too long (if they did, people would be singing my praises for my calls on SPRD, FSII, AMBA, SIMO, and so on). But they'll give you grief to no end if you get it "wrong".
With that, I wish you all the best of luck.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Thanks, everyone - the kind words are very much appreciated. You all know how to reach me. iHub, Seeking Alpha, and e-mail (my address is in my SA profile).
Only have a minute, but just got done with an Intel LTE briefing.
XMM 7260 (LTE-A, carrier aggregation, TD-SCDMA) will be AVAILABLE IN DEVICES during the FIRST HALF OF 2014. This is a very significant development and confirms that 2014 could very well be the "year of the Intel smartphone".
Keep up the good work. You know that I largely agree with your thesis on NVDA, and I appreciate that you bring the news to our attention so diligently.
The bottom line is that while xc3155 has a special love of QCOM, there's much more upside to be had with NVDA than with QCOM. QCOM could see many of its major sockets in QCT wiped out in a day if Samsung decided to use an in-house apps processor. It could see its Nexus 7 win ping-pong back to NVDA or even be lost to an Intel chip. In fact, in terms of CPU prowess, Intel leads Qualcomm, and in terms of GPU prowess I'm sure Logan will be the market leader.
Qualcomm's big strength is in modems, but I remember chatting with some of the folks at NVIDIA and they characterized the modem as largely a necessary but insufficient condition. That is, you need a good enough modem to even be allowed to play, but after that it comes down to the apps processor.
S600/S800 won this round because the two heavy hitters in computer (NVDA/INTC) have not yet brought to bear their full might into this space. When they do, and when the modem technology is there, it gets a lot bloodier for the market share leader. Does this mean QCOM is a short? Maybe later, but not today. The QTL revenue stream still fuels the majority of the bottom line, so it is very ARMH-like in the security and reliability of its revenue stream.
At 4% dividend yield, I'm happy to bet on what I believe to be "heads" :-)
It's not really a zero sum game and the risk/reward is still well tilted in Intel's favor. I'm happy to remain long the stock for as long as I see upside. Someday, Intel really might "top out" and I might consider selling my shares, but on the cusp of a massive product refresh, participation in new markets (smartphone, tablet, foundry, etc.), and the continued growth of the data-center, I expect very nice growth over the next 3-5 years.
You're absolutely delusional. I'm here at IDF and I've met many of the "employees" that you want to see lose their jobs. They're very passionate, dedicated people all pushing to drive leadership products.
Bay Trail is leadership as a system-on-chip. Broadwell on 14nm is absolutely crazy - 64% of the die size, with 30% less power consumption at the same performance. I also believe the GPU will be a real winner.
It takes time for R&D to pay off.
You constantly berate me for not having "real world" semiconductor experience and yet you do not even attempt to provide deeper analysis than simply trolling Intel with sensationalist headlines. I just submitted a very in depth piece that will go live shortly and it'll answer a lot of the questions that people have here.
You have NO power consumption numbers for A7 in this benchmark, 14 nanometer isn't delayed, BYT actually wins more than it loses against A7, and A7 isn't a quad core like your own post claimed, it's a dual core. And on top of all that, you don't bother to ask if Geekbench is valid, or look at what compiler was used to generate the binaries for geekbench (you know, something a guy w/ software background like me would know about).
No, you're just screaming that "28nm beats 22nm Intel" baselessly because you have an irrational hate for Intel.
You want to talk about TSMC's "fabrication dilemma"? Sure. They're behind what Intel is doing. But Intel has a "design dilemma". That is, their modems/SoCs still aren't up to scratch at 22nm compared to what Qualcomm is doing at 28nm for the most part. Design matters just as much (if not more) than fabrication, and Intel is still working out the kinks.
Like I said, I think Intel eventually finds its footing and becomes a powerhouse here. But as it stands today, Samsung has doubled its net income over the last year, TSMC has seen excellent Y/Y top and bottom line growth, and even ARM is doing well (although that Q4 guide was spooky).
Intel has so much potential but at the same time, let's not deny reality. Intel is behind in more ways than it's ahead in these new markets. Our bet is that Intel is stepping on the gas an accelerating faster than Qualcomm/TSMC/Samsung are. Will that turn out to be the case longer term? Only time will tell - but that's why the stock price is stuck in a right range. NOBODY KNOWS, and with uncertainty comes bad things on Wall Street.
The "shorts" aren't manipulating anything. You have two extremes - the guys like us who think Intel wins in the end, and the others who believe Intel is the next DEC. When it becomes clear which outcome is more likely, we will see a massive movement in that camp's direction. It's that simple.
I sold out of Qualcomm in the $64's a while back from the low $60's. Still have plenty of respect for the company - I don't automatically bash something because I don't own it, nor do I mindlessly pump what I own.
It's called being intellectually honest. You should try it sometime.
You just can't give Intel any respect, can you? I tell you what...has anybody demonstrated a fully working 14nm Samsung design? Because, as you know, Intel showed off a 14nm PC part that was fully functional at top performance.
Nice little gem in there,
"If one was really cynical they might suspect that this is nothing more than a desperate ploy to bump the stock up a bit before it gets hammered early next week for reasons we can’t talk about yet."
I love how he's trying to scare NVDA shareholders with claims that AMD is going to take massive share and that our shares are going to drop like a rock. If he has good info, why not share it, instead of trying to taunt us?
Anybody remember "best" and his many aliases?
I know, right? But hey, I'm not going to complain...Intel has gone from 2 years behind in comms to maybe 3-6 months (if XMM 7260 ships as planned). I'd say that's a pretty darn good improvement.
Hardly - I enjoy my current job. Bottom line is, I'm constantly digging into things, and every day my picture of Intel and the broader industry within which it competes continues to become more vivid.
Problem is, very little that I say about Intel and its products is said without significant due diligence behind it, which is why wallis and others would prefer to simply make character assassinations than to actually argue the points.
Go ahead. Prove me wrong. My ego isn't big and boy would I love to be proven wrong about a lot of the "negatives" I point out about Intel. Slam down my arguments. Crush them. Make me look stupid. I welcome it.
Intel doesn't need a damn plan B. Its plan A is working out great, even if these guys are too blind to see it.