Trading down with biotech in general which is being slaughtered. NBIX's future depends on VMAT results due out in the next week or two. If positive (which many expect with no guarantees), all will be fine.
Bier, careful on Linn. Don't know alot about it, but see this article today:
I think NBIX has the potential to run up some to Fibroid results in Sept/Oct time frame. It always seems like NBIX has a good run prior to results being released. Assuming the overall market doesn't take a big downturn, i could see this thing run to $60 or higher by September/October. JMO
Not bad. Europe to follow?
Neurocrine Biosciences and Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Announce Agreement to Develop and Commercialize VMAT2 Inhibitor NBI-98854 for Movement Disorders in Japan and Other Select Asian Markets
SAN DIEGO, March 31, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (Nasdaq: NBIX) today announced that it has entered into an exclusive collaboration and licensing agreement for the development and commercialization of its VMAT2 inhibitor, NBI-98854, in Japan and other select Asian markets with Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corporation (TSE: 4508). Mitsubishi Tanabe intends to initially develop NBI-98854 in Japan for the chorea associated with Huntington's disease and tardive dyskinesia. Neurocrine retains full commercial rights to NBI-98854 in North America, Europe and other countries outside of Asia.
Under the terms of the agreement, Neurocrine will receive an initial payment of $30 million and is eligible to receive up to $85 million in additional milestone payments associated with the development and commercialization of NBI-98854 in Asia. Upon commercialization, Neurocrine will receive royalties on product sales from Mitsubishi Tanabe territories in Asia. Neurocrine will also support Mitsubishi Tanabe's clinical efforts in developing NBI-98854 for patients suffering from the chorea associated with Huntington's disease and tardive dyskinesia.
"We are excited to have one of the leading pharmaceutical companies in Japan as our commercialization partner for NBI-98854 in Asia. Importantly, Mitsubishi Tanabe has a proven track record of developing innovative pharmaceuticals, which we believe will optimize NBI-98854's full potential in the growing Asian movement disorders market," said Kevin Gorman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Neurocrine Biosciences. "We have recently initiated the build of our North American commercial infrastructure and the signing of this international partnership meaningfully extends that commercial reach. Additionally,
It is not like it wasn't expected and broadcasted at prior conferences. So I don't think the announcement is that significant and some might say the announcement is late (weren't they supposed to start in September?).
I used to post on this board a liltle while back and held a ton of shares. Back when it was in the 30s and down when it was in the 12s. No telling if I'm up or down at this point. now I mostly lurk. I just trade it now with a few thousands shares. I'm buying some after hours. Down 7% seems a bit much to me after this kind of report, but I've been wrong before. GLTA.
Not dead money. The run up to Endo results in 4th quarter will be nice. I would not be surprised to see $18 to $20 before results are announced, if not higher. Biotech and the overall market in general can obviously affect it, but the anticipation for Endo results will be great.
doc, it depends on what happens to Elagolix for Fibroids and Endo in July to September this year. If either of those fail, you will see low teens and more likely, single digits. If both are successful, $30+ will come fairly easily IMO. In the near term, I anticipate we will see $20 to $25 leading up to those results (much like the massive run up to VMAT phase II results in September). Phase III results for VMAT is probably a year away, at least.
frogs, i hope i'm right, but I think you are discounting the run NBIX should have into elagolix results in 2014. I would hope it is similar, if not more, to VMAT.
On other thing, a hope and prayer that VMAT Kinect 2 comes out favorable could change our fortunes more quickly. I'm not holding out much hope and it, if bad, it may ding us some more.
I think we see some movement in later part of Q1. Assuming I'm correct, we'll have Fibroids and Endo results coming out between July and September respectively. Look at the long run up we had to VMAT phase II (with the help of a generous market though). With that being said, we probably are not more than a month or two apart.
Agree 100%. That last snafu may have been a blessing in disguise in the sense that they should have done everything possible to get the best results this time around.
According to NBIX's timeline, today was the first day that they should be expected. I assume it is possible that there could be some additional delay in analyzing the results, but that is really outside my area of expertise.
If they had to analyze the results (review video, etc) like the last time, that could cause delay with the knowledge that there was a problem. I'm long with a big core position and i believe results will be good, but that doesn't mean I haven't considered selling some or the potential bad consequences. The stock ran up to the last VMAT results so I don't consider this run up a great indicator of how they will turn out this time. I certainly have enjoyed it though and hope it continues.
If they don't release the results prior to the conference, would that be a bearish sign? It would be either because they are not ready or they don't want to be to discuss bad results at the conference.