It is not like it wasn't expected and broadcasted at prior conferences. So I don't think the announcement is that significant and some might say the announcement is late (weren't they supposed to start in September?).
I used to post on this board a liltle while back and held a ton of shares. Back when it was in the 30s and down when it was in the 12s. No telling if I'm up or down at this point. now I mostly lurk. I just trade it now with a few thousands shares. I'm buying some after hours. Down 7% seems a bit much to me after this kind of report, but I've been wrong before. GLTA.
Not dead money. The run up to Endo results in 4th quarter will be nice. I would not be surprised to see $18 to $20 before results are announced, if not higher. Biotech and the overall market in general can obviously affect it, but the anticipation for Endo results will be great.
doc, it depends on what happens to Elagolix for Fibroids and Endo in July to September this year. If either of those fail, you will see low teens and more likely, single digits. If both are successful, $30+ will come fairly easily IMO. In the near term, I anticipate we will see $20 to $25 leading up to those results (much like the massive run up to VMAT phase II results in September). Phase III results for VMAT is probably a year away, at least.
frogs, i hope i'm right, but I think you are discounting the run NBIX should have into elagolix results in 2014. I would hope it is similar, if not more, to VMAT.
On other thing, a hope and prayer that VMAT Kinect 2 comes out favorable could change our fortunes more quickly. I'm not holding out much hope and it, if bad, it may ding us some more.
I think we see some movement in later part of Q1. Assuming I'm correct, we'll have Fibroids and Endo results coming out between July and September respectively. Look at the long run up we had to VMAT phase II (with the help of a generous market though). With that being said, we probably are not more than a month or two apart.
Agree 100%. That last snafu may have been a blessing in disguise in the sense that they should have done everything possible to get the best results this time around.
According to NBIX's timeline, today was the first day that they should be expected. I assume it is possible that there could be some additional delay in analyzing the results, but that is really outside my area of expertise.
If they had to analyze the results (review video, etc) like the last time, that could cause delay with the knowledge that there was a problem. I'm long with a big core position and i believe results will be good, but that doesn't mean I haven't considered selling some or the potential bad consequences. The stock ran up to the last VMAT results so I don't consider this run up a great indicator of how they will turn out this time. I certainly have enjoyed it though and hope it continues.
If they don't release the results prior to the conference, would that be a bearish sign? It would be either because they are not ready or they don't want to be to discuss bad results at the conference.
Calm down Bill and Opal. I, for one, appreciate both of your posts (and Nclags as well). It is just more information that people like me to consider or disregard in my investing. I don't post much anymore, but keep an eye on the board. I have reduced myself to mostly trading ARUN. I was fortunate to have some short from the drop in the 20s to 17s, but I went long on 2,000 shares at 17 and sitting on loss there. I also shorted some for short term trade a few days ago and I let it get away from me this week. So I have losses both long and short. I feel the overall market may get ugly the next few months and that won't help ARUN. My guess is we will have to wait until the fall or end of year to see $17+ Just my gut talking so don't invest on it.
I sold all my long traders a little early in after hours trading. I have to say I am in agreement with most of nclag's post about the future. However, near term, I think I'm in Opal's camp. The overall market is falling a little and if it continues, the high-beta ARUN will likely follow. I actually shorted just a few shares after hours, but I almost want those back because Nclag may be right about short squeeze and upgrades. Because I mainly trade ARUN, my thoughts are ARUN should fall some from its highs tomorrow. How far I don't know. I may short some with that expectation, but I'll definitely be looking to buy more long as I believe in the future that Nclag sees. I just hope I have some longs when the move up really happens. GLTA
I actually sold all my longs after hours as well between 22.95 and 23.00. Didn't want to risk guidance during the conference call although my gut tells me it will be good.
I bought some too a couple of times today with a low of 21.27 although the others are much higher. Betting on good report, but not all that convinced.