This is the biggest risk now to confirm Moema can be on line without any problem. Upgrade/downgrade, it does not matter. Only the Moema will confirm its path for higher
This company's technology can change the world. It has proved its technology but it has NOT proved that it can mass manufacture its technology. If all the name capacity is 100% guaranteed, its market cap should be 10 billion+ now. The ONLY reason, it is still under $1 billion is because most people do NOT believe its technology can be mass produced, especially after several delays. Clinton serves as a proof that its technology can be mass produced. Its 30% increase is actually very light based on its perspective. If Moema successfully opens, we will see it double from current level easily. The drop recently is based the assumption that Moema will be another delay, otherwise, why not issue secondary after Moema opens?
There are ONLY 2 risks associated with szym before the next earning. Delaying in production and secondary. The management seemed to have both now. The biggest problem with this company is not its product or technology. It is its production capacity. It is funny how people wish the stock would go up and compared it to tsla. Tsla's CEO bought the stock personally on the secondary but this management is selling with the secondary. Also, it seems there's no negative comment on this board which to me is another bearish sign to indicate top. Only GOD can help this stock now. Otherwise, 20% down from this level is realistic without the news of Brazil capacity alive.
You are just crazy, you are out of your mind and day dreaming. The chance for it to go up on the news is less than lotto. It is a fiction.
The street is using one size fit all model to rate stocks. It is only good for super mature stocks with low beta like PG. If you look at their analysis, they are only looking at historical data as the ONLY input. They do NOT care about changing events and definitely will have 80%+ error to track any cyclical industry like solar. Their model will sell stocks when target stocks are just starting a uptrend because historically the data is bad. Also it will recommend stocks when they are at the peak and staring down trend because historical data looks good.
I was out for a while. Did they mention about the progress or estimated time of opening for the Brazil facility during the Earning Conference?
You are conservative. The stock should reach at least 26 by the end of year. In 2011, it reached 16 with just solar. I would say that was equivalent to 13 adjusted for dilution. Now solar comes back, it should be valued for 13 ONLY based on its solar business. Based on the sapphire deal, it should be valued at least the same as the solar part this year, so that will give 26. By the end of next year, it expected earning to reach $1 conservatively without considering the solar growth (management expected the sapphire will counts for 80% of the revenue). I would put 3:4, that would make the earning more like 1.6 per share. With P/E of 30, it should reach 48 per share.
Every time after ER, spwr always goes down. If the rev below and ER in line, that signals higher gross margin. They beat their own estimate every time, the management is just trying to set low bar so that they can easily beat the expectations.
Solar about to start its next generation of efficiency next year. GTAT should be valued at north of 16 without sapphire at all
The news leaked out that Apple will use sapphire for IPHONE 6. Now Apple played a trick to fool their competition by purposely leaking out some news through their vendors, so that their competition will delay the use of sapphire on their phone. Apple's core competitive advantage is that they always have something exciting before their competition. Let's assume apple delaying the use of Sapphire till 2015, that is after GTAT will able to sell sapphire machines to other vendors. By then, the sapphire cost drops but Apple may AT MOST only have several months lead of their sapphire phone. Strategically, it loses competitive advantage by doing that. Apple's sales drops recently especially in Asia due to its "coolness" magic has been over taken by Samsung, LG and etc. Apple urgently needs some excitement in its products that is not present in their competition. People on this board discussing the advantage of gorilla glass vs sapphire is missing the point. Anything that can restore the "cool" image of Apple is worth much more than that function's actual advantage. That is why Apple invested 500 million on this deal and they required a non-disclosure clause for the deal. If one can imagine Apple as a business and valuate options Apple have to restore their image among consumers, he/she shall see sapphire phone is inevitably coming. And they have to come quick, so that Apple can sell 500 million phones before another major competition can catch up. Apple's core customer is NOT budget sensitive, they are fashion seekers, trend followers. I am not sure how much competition Apple will fool. But it definitely fooled lots of investors for GTAT,
This is funny. You don't think AAPL would have had 100 of you with better physics, chemistry & metallurgy background to do the research before dropping 500 million to this project? Let's assume you are even better than the 100 PHD combined in AAPL research team, would such a genius posting msg on this board? Let's assume you are right, apple is dumb, how come apple is one of the biggest company in the world and you are posting msg on this board? The only logic that makes sense here is that AAPL will switch to sapphire for a very good reason worth MORE than $500.
It will be a false assumption that most customers careless.about the screen. The reason most people use IPHONE is because of the perceived "coolness" and "prestige". And sapphire is the exact element to make next generation IPHONE cool. If most customers only look for a bigger screen, they could just get one of the Chinese version for 50-70% off iphone's price. $20 extra cost per phone can be passed on to apple's target customer easily. It would be a strategic mistake for Apple if they give up the sapphire screen just because of the $20 extra cost. I am 90% sure Apple is purposely release this report to confuse its competitors, especially the report is from Apple's related party (its vendors). If the competition does not learn the sapphire screen until just before iphone6 releases, it will take them longer to catch IPHONE's cool.
Solar is coming back big the next few years. A conservative valuation for the solar + LED business for GTAT will be at least 2 billion. According to GTAT's guidance, they expect sapphire based business to be 4 times the rest of their revenue (80% from sapphire related business), we are talking about total market cap of 10 billion in that case. However, conservatively, I would give about double revenue vs Solar+LED. That will yield a fair market value of at least 6 billion ($50 per share). If somehow GTAT can figure out a way to combine solar power and sapphire like some of the people claim on this board, GTAT could be valued at 10 Billion easily. Can you imagine that all your electronic device phone, TV, pad, computer are self powered through light? The opportunity is HUGE and I personally would not sell until GTAT reaches 10 billion in market capitalization.
It seems like the possibility for AAPL to withdraw from the deal is close to none. AAPL was winning because it was perceived as cool and prestige. Samsung caught up after it first started to use OLED screen. If AAPL drop the GTAT deal, Samsung will definitely step in and take the scratch free "coolness" from AAPL, and that is definitely the least AAPL wants to see. For GTAT, it will be the same. Samsung probably will sell more phones in total compared to AAPL any way. I believe the cost of $20 per phone is irrelevant even if GTAT can not get the cost down to single digit. I doubt any consumer who buys apple will switch to samsung for just $20 if the apple's "coolness" and prestige image is intact. Following AAPL's news, Samsung is probably designing their own copy of scratch free screen. However, no one currently can produce enough volume for samsung without GTAT's state of the art machines. Samsung will not risk the supply chain bottleneck with their flagship Galaxy. This bottle neck is forcing Samsung a step behind apple.
very surprised that all the short sellers are gone. With such a low volume, the price is very easy to play. Wonder the so confident CB is not doubling down.