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Trina Solar Limited Message Board

asianhiddentreasure 51 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 9, 2014 9:28 PM Member since: Jan 16, 2008
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  • asianhiddentreasure by asianhiddentreasure Jul 10, 2014 11:35 AM Flag

    The stock has been dropping the past 5 days (except one day of 2c up). The out look is extremely bearish. 25% down from one week ago. So I decided to short it.

  • asianhiddentreasure by asianhiddentreasure Jul 9, 2014 12:51 PM Flag

    GTAT is going to 14 in short term based on its price action. The trend already identified as short by lots programs. Pre market high without news will result in drop throughout the day. Unless there is big news (which really nothing for the past month) with volumes of 20 to 30 mil, it will be hard to break 18. The damage from the analysts' guess work is real. Long term wise the sapphire is going to be a trend for sure and it should become 6 to 8 billion (60--80 per share) company by the end of next year.

  • asianhiddentreasure by asianhiddentreasure Jul 8, 2014 11:53 AM Flag

    20%+ down from peak. 5 months performance 0%. People considered it over bought so they down grade the stock.

  • The downgrade was based on the May delivery check. Iphone6 conclusion was the guess work based on the May shipment. The price drop was due to the downgrade thesis--GTAT will not able to make 600-800 million guidance this year. If the management can come out and confirm the guidance, then all the drop today becomes pointless. Indeed, do you think the analysts know better than the management about the future orders? If GTAT can hit their revenue guidance without apple or with less % from apple, it would be great news. Because that means there are other revenues that are not priced in yet.

  • asianhiddentreasure by asianhiddentreasure Jul 7, 2014 12:23 PM Flag

    Just few weeks ago, it was reported that GTAT was expanding sapphire manufacturing facilities. Now it was reported that in May the shipment was low. If the "below expectation" shipment was due to the demand, why GTAT went ahead for a second facility? And if the demand for sapphire is not expected to be up, how come the price for sapphire raw material went up end of June? Traders needs to understand that GTAT is in sapphire business not in the apple parts business. To me, the rising price for sapphire is more important than the out dated delivery confirmation. GTAT has NOT moved up for 5 months. To me, all the bad news already priced in not the good ones.

  • asianhiddentreasure by asianhiddentreasure Jul 7, 2014 11:15 AM Flag

    As late as last week there was some research stating the supply of sapphire will be tight in the 2H and the price of sapphire is heading higher every month. Now an old news of May shipment knock out 13% of GTAT. If Apple is not buying and sapphire price goes up. That is not too bad. Plus "the price in" joke is really funny because GTAT reached this level 5 months ago.

  • asianhiddentreasure by asianhiddentreasure Jul 3, 2014 9:45 AM Flag

    Looks like someone really trying hard to keep GTAT under 20 and someone really trying to pop GPRO. It is sad that shorting GPRO is not possible now.

  • Reply to

    Peter Lynch -words of wisdom

    by mk54321 Jul 2, 2014 12:19 PM
    asianhiddentreasure asianhiddentreasure Jul 2, 2014 1:43 PM Flag

    wow, that is almost 40k. Big investment.

  • Reply to

    optionmonster notes that 3200 aug 20 puts

    by capizzzzztrano Jun 27, 2014 11:57 AM
    asianhiddentreasure asianhiddentreasure Jun 27, 2014 2:21 PM Flag

    Guys, relax. It is a bullish sign. Case 1: he expects GTAT will drop below 17. However, in this case, he will be better off to buy Aug 18 puts for about 0.9 and triple the position. As a result, his investment is less but he will make more compared to Aug 20 puts. Case 2 (most likely): he expects GTAT will stay around 18. In this case, his 2.9 investment will be losing money. No one wants to start a naked losing money position. The only explanation is that this is a hedge for his long position which means he is bullish (otherwise, he can just sell the long position). If the person who started this position is bullish, why would you guys think is bearish?

  • Reply to

    option monster says

    by nine_on_the_rectum_scale Jun 27, 2014 1:43 PM
    asianhiddentreasure asianhiddentreasure Jun 27, 2014 2:08 PM Flag

    Option monster's analysis is wrong. Buying in the money put in this case is more like hedging. Most importantly, the trader does NOT expect the GTAT will drop passing 17. Buying out of money 18 put costs less than 1/3 of cost compared to buying puts for 20. If the stock drops below 17, it will be CHEAPER to buy and makes MORE return on buying Aug 18 puts compared to buying August 20 puts. If the trader thinks GTAT will be around 18 at expiration, then his investment of 2.9 is losing money for sure. So the only explanation is for hedging not shorting or speculating down. And if the trader wants to make money, I expect he must have or about to have big position on the long side. This is a bullish sign instead of bearish. A bearish in this case will be buying August 18 puts.

  • Reply to

    18 trading days til

    by charts_say Jun 24, 2014 7:26 AM
    asianhiddentreasure asianhiddentreasure Jun 24, 2014 9:05 AM Flag

    too many option creates resistance at above 22. because traders will sell the stock to hedge their call position.

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