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Silvercorp Metals Inc. Message Board

asianvest 86 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 24, 2014 9:40 PM Member since: Aug 6, 2001
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  • Reply to

    Trying to buy back half my shares here....

    by lobsterpot1989 Jul 23, 2014 12:59 PM
    asianvest asianvest Jul 24, 2014 9:40 PM Flag

    lobsterpot1989: "... I sold all 45k for 2.20 a few weeks ago..."

    [FACT: There was only one day when the shares traded for $2.20 -- briefly, on July 10th.]

    lobsterpot1989 - Jul 10, 2014, 2:01PM: "Chugging along!!!"
    (In reply to: "Every Day SVM Goes Up A Little More")

    Imagine that, our neighborhood master-trader was posting "Chugging along" @ 2pm & by 4pm he had sold out his entire holdings of Silvercorp -- completely confident that he could buy them back soon enough below $1.85!

    Wow! You missed your calling of working for SAC or Soros. With your trading skills, you could make the big money... or maybe it's all just paper trading (and after-the-fact)!?!

  • asianvest asianvest Jul 24, 2014 6:33 PM Flag

    And given that Director Swallow is a newish member of the Board... I do wonder what he might have done to deserve a hefty TWENTY THOUSAND options in May, instead of the more-reasonable sixty-five hundred he got in January???

    (Well, whatever skill he does so well, at least his options are still in-the-money! Nice to know at least somebody is making money from Silvercorp!)

  • [Kinda makes you wonder at what price the insiders might actually start buying this for their own accounts -- unless there is *no* price they would pay. But I'm sure they must have their reasons.]

    Shaoyang Shen, COO
    8/22/13: SOLD 10,033 shares @ $3.85

    Maria Tang, CFO
    3/6/14: SOLD 10,000 shares @ $2.65

    Earl Drake, Director
    10/24/13: SOLD 5,000 shares @ $3.65
    10/24/13: SOLD 9,700 shares @ $3.72
    10/24/13: SOLD 1,199 shares @ $3.68
    3/21/14: Bought 10,000 shares @ $2.35

    David Kong, Director
    3/7/14: SOLD 7,000 shares @ $2.57
    3/24/14: SOLD 3,000 shares @ $2.19

    David Kong, Director (through Anaconda Investments Corp.)
    2/18/14: SOLD 10,000 shares @ $3.28
    2/20/14: SOLD 6,000 shares @ $3.12
    2/21/14: SOLD 5,000 shares @ $3.08

  • asianvest asianvest Jul 24, 2014 6:12 PM Flag

    Okay, better late than never... the insider transactions below happened a while back, but were just reported on SEDI this week. (Whew! I was a bit afraid Director Swallow has been left out of the options love-fest... but it seems there's no hard feelings in the Boardroom.)

    Swallow, Malcolm - Director
    5/30/14: 20,000 @ $1.75
    1/22/14: 6,500 @ $2.98

    AND: This brings the total "motivational" rewards for the 12 months to over 1,680,000! (Don't say the insiders have no incentive for the shares to rise sharply by any means necessary... no wonder you guys love owning this stock.)

  • asianvest asianvest Jul 19, 2014 10:51 PM Flag

    Gingey, with all due respect (and I mean that sincerely, and I appreciate your willingness to discuss the company in good faith and even ask direct questions), I do think you might be allowing your investment to sway your judgement.

    First, about "non-required" statements -- Silvercorp issues updates and unrequired news quite regularly... see the drill results published in Feb & March. So the issue is more of making any statements vs. selectively only issuing positive news and allowing investors to hang for months to learn about meaningful developments that are not positive. (And I'd argue that the pattern of insider selling does not bode well for the position that it benefits shareholders for the company not to promptly disclose anything other than good stuff. Such as writing off Yukon Zinc and Yongning Smelting & selling Silvertip and RZY mines.)

    Second, in your comparison to an LLC, I'm guessing the owners are still kept informed of material developments that might impact earnings. Since Silvercorp has chosen to be a Canadian public company, the way to inform shareholders is through public statements and filings. (They are no more or less damned than any public company that makes statements. And if you don't want to make public statements about your business, why be a public corporation in the first place?)

    Third, Silvercorp has already chosen to make a number of significant sales and earnings forecasts for the GC Mine in the upcoming period. So they have already voluntarily raised the issue. (They didn't need to make sales projections before the mine is even operational... they wanted to.) And since the current guidance would seem to depend on the permit situation, it is reasonable to expect they will keep shareholders apprised of the situation -- and not wait for quarterly reports to discuss what happened 4 months prior.

    Regardless, thank you again for asking them, and posting the reply here. Best of luck.

  • So, just a month ago, on June 19th, Van Eck's Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) held 18,907,533 shares of Silvercorp, representing 1.67% of the fund's assets.

    ...and a month later, the fund holds 21,582,244 shares, representing just 1.66% of the assets!

    So, in the past month, Van Eck purchased 2,674,711 shares of SVM -- just to keep it's representation in the portfolio almost (but not quite) even. Surely there is ultimately a finite limit to what percent of a company's shares it is willing to hold.

    (And, needless to say, the Van Eck holdings dwarf the 12.6 million short interest -- that some posters on this board blame for the entire drop in the share price. Now why didn't I think of that???)

  • asianvest asianvest Jul 16, 2014 8:13 PM Flag

    Interesting. Thanks for posting their reply.

    I wonder if now that you've asked, it will prompt them to issue a public update on the permit status?

    (And certainly, anyone is welcome to take cgreens' advice and put me on ignore, and miss out on my comments. But curious he gives advice that he clearly doesn't follow.)

  • asianvest asianvest Jul 16, 2014 11:02 AM Flag

    Hi Gingey,

    I think it's been about a week now since you contacted Silvercorp... did you get a reply? Please let us know either way.

    Or if anyone else wants to check with the company about the status of the GC Mine permit, feel free to follow-up on this topic.

    (Even a lack of response to shareholders is useful to know about. And it may be that if enough people ask, they would issue a statement on the current situation. After all, the easiest way for them to justify lack of disclosure and conference calls is to say nobody is asking questions in the first place.)

  • Reply to

    Great work, everyone

    by alsense Jul 13, 2014 12:03 AM
    asianvest asianvest Jul 15, 2014 1:05 PM Flag

    Hey Bug,

    Can you shed a little light on why 135k shares traded yesterday in a short period??? Given the size of the blocks, and the lack of follow-through trading afterwards, I'm guessing it was someone closing out a position (because if it was someone suddenly buying a large order, I'd expect to see news shortly thereafter, or have the purchases spread out over a longer period for better fill).

    By chance, I do note that several of the so-called "gang of 13-D" members reported owning around 135k shares... so perhaps one of them got the willies.

    ...and you appear a bit distraught at having been left in the dark.

  • Reply to

    Great work, everyone

    by alsense Jul 13, 2014 12:03 AM
    asianvest asianvest Jul 14, 2014 1:06 PM Flag

    Hmmm... 50,000 shares have traded so far today... maybe someone is following these euphoric posts!

    (Or maybe the 13-D crew are cashing out.)

    ;)

  • You mentioned you would contact them last week to see if there is a new Production Permit for the GC mine.

    (Since they typically seem eager to issue a press release for positive news, my hunch is: no reply indicates there is not yet a new permit in place.)

    But I commend you for inquiring, and hope you do get a reply of some sort (and that you will let us know). If for no other reason than it is good for the company to be aware that some shareholders are paying attention, and are interesting in being kept informed.

    As the temporary Safety Production Permit was reportedly valid until the end of June 2014, it's possible they won't mention the status in the next quarterly report, which only covers April-June period. ...then we might need to wait another 3-months to learn if the mine has had a valid production permit, or not.

  • Reply to

    Van Eck bought 438,672 shares of SVM yesterday!

    by asianvest Jul 12, 2014 9:00 AM
    asianvest asianvest Jul 14, 2014 9:46 AM Flag

    "Because it isn't a proven fraud..."

    ...uh, doesn't it go without saying, that the time to short a fraud is *before* it's "proven?" (Because once it goes from strong-indication to proof -- the share price should drop commensurately.)

    "...share performance really is correlated to the price of silver..."

    That's your contention. I'd say the share price is correlated to the company reporting poor performance, writing off assets, selling off projects, slashing the dividend... and negative insider buying.

    ...plus all the added risk associated with holding shares where the assets are based in China.

    But if you're soooo eager to invest in silver -- why not get 100% correlation by investing in SLV? Or for leverage and diversification, a miner ETF?

  • Reply to

    Van Eck bought 438,672 shares of SVM yesterday!

    by asianvest Jul 12, 2014 9:00 AM
    asianvest asianvest Jul 14, 2014 12:38 AM Flag

    Uh, the time period didn't come from me... I was replying to asianshortsqueeze's statement: "Since 2011-01-03 The SLV (Silver) to SVM Correlation coefficient= .8374"

    ...and since the topic was the correlation of SLV & SVM since January 3, 2011 -- that's also the obvious period to compare their total returns from. (Perhaps you didn't bother to carefully read the thread before jumping in to state an irrelevant truism.)

    ...but if you think you have something meaningful to add to the discussion, by all means, choose any time period you want.

    (Though of course, for me the period that's most of interest is from about 2 years ago, when I first decided to short this stock because it looks like such a likely fraud... and during that period both the corporate and share performance have been abysmal.)

  • Reply to

    Van Eck bought 438,672 shares of SVM yesterday!

    by asianvest Jul 12, 2014 9:00 AM
    asianvest asianvest Jul 12, 2014 11:30 AM Flag

    Really???

    Since Jan 3, 2011, SLV (iShares Silver Trust) is down about 30%... while Silvercorp is down about 80% (*including* about 30 cents in dividends during that period).

    ...that's your example of a "Very Strong" correlation?

    Anyhow, *I'm* not fighting anything... I believe Silvercorp is a poorly producing, badly managed, operation, with a lot of risk to investors of fraud or temptation for future malfeasance given the limited oversight and lack of recourse to assets in China. That investment premise has been very good the past few years, and I see no reason for it to change -- certainly the insiders' haven't shown any interest to personally invest in the stock.

    ...and if your argument is that SVM is a good investment because it closely follows silver -- and you believe silver will outperform the market -- then why not simply invest in silver (for 100% correlation), and avoid the added risk that a Chinese national will lie to you and keep your money with impunity!

  • If anyone's wondering what influenced the share price on Friday... Van Eck bought about 40% of the daily volume for its ETF to attempt to keep the weighting steady. (...it's getting hard to maintain SVM's position in the fund... it still declined.)

    Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ):
    Holdings of Silvercorp Metals Inc -
    As of 07/10/14: 20,796,309 shares (1.77% of Net Assets)
    As of 07/11/14: 21,234,981 shares (1.75% of Net Assets)

    That's an increase of 438,672 shares held -- on a day when the volume was only about 1.1 million.

    Van Eck's fund now holds over 12% of SVM's shares. (I wonder if they have a limit guideline?)

  • asianvest asianvest Jul 11, 2014 11:16 AM Flag

    Oh, lookee -- short interest continues to drop:
    Short Interest: 6/30/2014 = 12,593,607

    ...so, over 11 trade days, outstanding short interest contracted by 405k shares.... or an average 37k/day of added short buying.

    Wow, at this rate, there will be no shorts left by around 2016 -- and then who will you have left to blame for the company and stock's horrid performance??? (Maybe the management?)

  • Reply to

    GC Mine -- permit lapsed???

    by asianvest Jul 4, 2014 9:37 AM
    asianvest asianvest Jul 8, 2014 9:16 PM Flag

    Uh, why don't you do yourself a favor--and put me on ignore. (That way you won't need to read any more "noise" that doesn't fit your view that the "tape" is somehow "making" the share price move, as if by magic.)

    For me, I think the issue of permits for the GC mine is both timely and relevant (the company has projected a lot of sales from that mine) -- so for a shareholder to ask about the status, rather than waiting until the next qtr report, or the one after that, to learn if everything is progressing as planned is totally sensible.

    ...and I would not call a shareholder a "board minion" because they ask a relevant question to the company and offer to post the reply.

    (And if the company still held conference calls that allowed owners the chance to ask questions in a public forum, that would make this unnecessary.)

    For the record, I don't know the answer about the mine permits... that's why I'm bringing it up to discuss here... so I can learn more about the situation. Duh.

  • Reply to

    GC Mine -- permit lapsed???

    by asianvest Jul 4, 2014 9:37 AM
    asianvest asianvest Jul 8, 2014 1:49 PM Flag

    Is *nobody* curious enough -- or brave enough -- to contact Silvercorp and inquire about the current status of the GC mine permits???

    ...anyone?

  • Reply to

    GC Mine -- permit lapsed???

    by asianvest Jul 4, 2014 9:37 AM
    asianvest asianvest Jul 7, 2014 9:36 AM Flag

    Oh, sorry, asianshortsqueeze -- in my reply to you I used a 3-letter abbreviation for your ID... and I guess Yahoo didn't approve of the short-form. But regardless, thank you for confirming that the temporary permit is no longer valid.

  • Reply to

    GC Mine -- permit lapsed???

    by asianvest Jul 4, 2014 9:37 AM
    asianvest asianvest Jul 7, 2014 9:32 AM Flag

    Welcome back everyone... maybe now we can get down to real investing again...

    I see lots of thumb-down votes on this topic, and a few posts supporting the evidence that Silvercorp's temporary Safety Production Permit for the GC mines has expired -- but so far, nary a single participant seems willing to simply email the company to ask what the current status is of Production Permits for the oft-heralded new mine project.

    Would one of you, anyone, be willing to email Lorne and let us know what reply you get??? Much appreciated!

SVM
1.90-0.01(-0.52%)11:57 AMEDT

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