Do you ever hear anything from the sceiowners group? What are they up to? Do you know anything about the status of the NV lawsuit... I sense it was transferred to a different court (after it was closed in Clark County), but not sure.
Just curious to hear the latest. Thanks.
Silvercorp's fiscal year ends in March... I think the Annual filing won't come until mid May.
SEDI dot CA
That's the official reporting site for Canadian public company filings on insider ownership.
Yes. (And you see what that did for the share price.)
Van Eck now owns 22,065,211 shares.
Yes, I'm a long-term investor... holding a short position for a long time... and I really don't expect to give back all my profits (though I guess it may happen). Until I see a reason to close my position, I don't plan to "move on," as you say. Your taunts are wasted on me. Sorry. :(
I don't post here to brag about my gains, nor for you to give me "credit" for them. I couldn't care less what you think. For that matter, I don't care if the people whose posts I read have a gain, a loss, or no position at all -- it's their thoughts that interest me, not their money. I post here to discuss the company and the stock. I'm only mentioning my position so people don't misinterpret my posts as somehow concealing that I'm short.
If it makes you feel superior to think I'm paid to post, fine. I'm not, but so what.
This topic is wearing thin, and I may altogether stop discussing my position for the time being, but regardless, if you get too agitated reading my posts, feel free to ignore them (or thumb-down -- I'm always eager for a rating, any will do).
But, and you seem to have avoided this fact altogether in your reply... Maria Tang is the Chief Financial Officer of Silvercorp -- her responsibility is to fortify the financial health of the corporation, including its capital base... selling most of her stock holdings near a record-low price would seem to be a dereliction of that duty... and portends negative news to come.
(And before the flames start flaring, let me be clear that I'm not suggesting Officers should never be able to sell shares... obviously they can and do... but that it should be done in a way that doesn't undermine the impression of the stock being desirable to invest in at any price. If I were a shareholder, I'd be contacting the company to find out what's up with all the insider selling at record low prices.)
Yeah, SEDI is the official source -- the news consolidators, like the CanadianInsider site, get their info from there -- I think it's a daily data feed, so they're often a bit behind.
If you look on SEDI you'll see Maria's trade report now... it should show up on the other sites by tomorrow.
But regardless, it should give pause to anyone holding the shares. She is the CFO.
As I've said before, I'm not a short-term trader, and have no clue what the share price will do tomorrow, or this week, or in the coming months... but long term I'm confident it will go down from here. (And until there is any change in the wave of insiders selling, or other fundamental reason, I'm planning to stick with my holdings.)
You may well make money trading for a fifty-cent gain (or what ever your goal is) over the next few weeks, I wish you well... I anticipate a certain level of volatility, and if you're able to trade it profitably, good for you. I'm still staying short long-term.
My only comment to you is: don't ignore that there is likely a reason behind the COO, CFO & two directors recently selling most or all of their share holdings, often at a loss... and it may be that if that reason becomes publicly known, the shares will fall further. I don't begrudge you taking the risk, just a caution that you should not expect any sympathy on my end if you suddenly find yourself ill served by the people operating the company on your behalf.
According to SEDI:
Silvercorp's Chief Financial Officer, Maria Tang SOLD 10,000 shares on March 6 for $2.65(CAD).
According to the report, she now has only 2,200 Silvercorp shares left.
The shares she sold last week for $2.65, were purchased on September 19, 2011 at $6.81.
That, my friends, is a $41,600 LOSS on the trade. I can’t even begin to tell you how bad an omen it is.
Hey Dude, I like you too!
Always nice to have a stalker... courtesy of NYGG, I'm sure... glad I keep you entertained. I don't mind your bringing my posts to the attention of a wider audience, so it's symbiotic.
You've got such a fine legal mind, I'm sure you'd be a star at swaying a jury -- you always know just the right turn of phrase and argument of interest to most lure small retail investors into complacently buying, and holding, this stock unquestioningly. And feeling good about it, no matter how poorly it performs as an investment.
I notice you're quite good at periodically insinuating that you're on the cusp of buying more shares yourself -- though I may have missed it, but I don't think you've ever actually stated that you do own shares. (I suspect you don't, but it doesn't matter to me if you did.)
Anyhow, looks like a lot of insider dumping of late... you're too smart not to see this as an ill omen. But I'm sure at a new low you've already got some great spell to cast for anyone looking to buy from the insiders. (Oooouuuuuuwwww...)
I'm sure if you were posting in 2012 then I read your missives. I don't really recall any specifics from back then -- except for one nutjob manic blowhard who likes to post by the dozen, and basically is delusional (though I noticed he stopped bragging about his bitcoin holdings ever since Mt Gox imploded... I wonder if that's where he kept them, safe and secure away from the prying eyes of his government. Snicker.).
I gather you take a more technical approach to assessing stocks. For me, with SVM, it's basically that they are structured and behave as if they want to keep an insurmountable distance between the N. American shareholders and all the alleged assets domiciled in China. I have a pretty clear idea where that arrangement will end... and possession is 9/10th's of the law, as they say. (And in China it's more like 10/10th's.)
I suspect we've both reached the same conclusions via different paths.
(As for your comment about the base metals -- lead and zinc account for about a third of their reported revenues, and each quarter in the MDA they provide a price based on the SME... currently a bit over $1/lb for each. Don't know if that will decline in time, but may well. And, as I've noted before, Silvercorp considers gold a "byproduct" too, at Ying.)
If anyone cares, David Kong took a big loss on selling those shares... he purchased his holdings between $2.85-5.06(CAD) -- with an avg cost per share of $3.67
...so he lost well over a buck a share... and still was eager to sell last week! (I do hope he doesn't have some inside inkling about the year-end report coming up. That would be smarmy. Well, good thing there are plenty of individual investors clamoring to buy up his shares at "the bottom.")
(Please, please, please feel free to give me a thumb-down rec on this -- I find it a comforting contrarian indicator when people want to ignore the facts. I'm trying for a negative ten.)
If I lose money, I'll feel bad no doubt... so what? I'm an investor, I know I will lose on some positions, and I work to manage my risk. I won't be in *trouble* from losing on a particular trade -- I'll be in trouble if I become too emotionally attached to being right about every position, or not learning from my mistakes. So far, there have been no issues with my SVM investment premise to be concerned.
(I don't know why you think I'm short from not much higher... I've been posting my skepticism here since 2012... the stock was much higher then.)
Of course, I was concerned when they announced the 8,500,000 share repurchase plan, because if executed in full it would significantly reduce the float, plus prove they had meaningful dollar holdings in cash... but then as the price dropped, and it became clear there wouldn't be any shares purchased at any price, it renewed my conviction that this is a smoke screen. And a cynical one, at that.
I will say, if silver goes much higher -- say above $25 -- in the short run I'd expect SVM to go up a lot (perhaps enough that I'd cover)... but in the long run I think it's what they dread... because it would expose a shortfall if they don't start showing real profits and increase the payout again. (For now they are able to tack along and claim minimal profits and delayed expansion and a need to conserve cash... but at some point that excuse becomes untenable and the long-suffering shareholders would demand some reward. And that requires dollars.)
Why are you always so interested in my personal trades??? I don't have any confidential information about this company... I'm just looking at what they report and how they act and making investment decisions based on that. My trades are irrelevant. (Unlike you, I don't need to proclaim my prospective trades on this board -- and, as you've probably surmised, I don't really believe you make the trades you claim to either -- I think you're a professional stock tout trying to lull naive investors into feeling secure buying or holding shares.)
The ones you should be following are the Silvercorp employees and Directors -- who have all sorts of inside information about what is really going on -- and you should wait to see at what price they are willing to stop selling their personal holdings (often at a loss) and start buying meaningful amounts. (If there is *any* price at which they want to buy.)
But since you ask, I'm not hiding anything... it only costs 2-cents a year to carry this short, so I may well hold into 2015, if there seems to be advantage in it.
It's true that I am short and you are long, but I also sense you are losing the strength of your conviction and are now too proud to admit ambivalence... it's just blatant bluster all the way!!! (I feel sorry for you. I hope you don't lose a lot of money in the end, or at least that you don't care about the amount you have at risk.)
Look, I raise the issue of consistent insider selling (including the COO selling all his shares, no less) -- with no buying -- even as the stock plummets... because that is one of the indicators that keeps me confident with my short position.
I don't tell anyone to "panic sell at the market" -- you just paint me with that brush to ridicule my argument. You're adults, make your own choices.
The CPPIB buys are a red herring... SVM has 170 million shares outstanding, someone's got to own them, why not a huge Canadian pension fund? I'm sure that's not the *reason* you are long SVM... nor do I think you own shares in their 400 other Canadian public stockholdings. You just wanted something to post that sounded brash. As we both agree, CPPIB's ownership is trivial... it's 7 hundred-thousandths of their public share allocation.
As for the $100 million of alleged cash Silvercorp reports... you're right, I don't believe it. I do know from reading their financial statements that virtually all their financial assets are based in China, in RMB, not in dollars. Which means it can't be used for share repurchases or dividends (both of which use dollars). Given Chinese laws and currency regulations, I'd say it's highly probable that whatever cash may reside in China will never make it back to shareholders of the Canadian corporation. And I think it's highly suspicious that they never disclose which corporations control the financial assets or in which banks the deposits reside (if they are even bank deposits). Certainly RMB deposits are not held in Silvercorp's name, it's not a Chinese corporation.
Okay, we disagree.
I want to commend you on this post -- you've obviously taken time to do some research and posted fact-based original information. That is so wonderfully refreshing to see from the longs on this board!
Now, and please don't take this feedback as a discouragement, I really think you might become good at this if you try engaging your mind a bit -- and want to demonstrate how we might sensibly analyze the information you've found.
So the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board has increased its holdings in the recent period. What do we know about the CPPIB? We know they have over $64 Billion in public share holdings (including shares in about 400 Canadian companies). Massive fund, over $200Bn total.
As you've pointed out, CPPIB reports holding about $4.3 million worth of SVM. That is to say, SVM comprises about 0.00007 of their public share holdings. As you've aptly stated in other posts, when huge investors have a small stake, "it's not important."
Because CPPIB's allocation would be the same as if an individual investor had a $64,000 portfolio -- and owned 2 shares of SVM.
But if we use our capacity for deductive reasoning, we quickly see *why* CPPIB has been adding shares in SVM -- it's because as the price of SVM drops, the number of shares needed to maintain the same dollar amount increases.
Let's look at the value of their SVM position for the past few quarters:
Dec 2013: $4.3m
Sep 2013: $4.6m
Jun 2013: $3.9m
Mar 2013: $5.6m
Dec 2012: $7.1m
You see??? They try to keep the dollar value within a certain range.
And this tells us that most likely, because the stock has been plummeting lately, they will keep buying shares in the current quarter too, in an effort to stay afloat.
But at some point, if the share price or market cap drops too low, CPPIB will replace SVM with a stronger investment... but even I would admit: "it's not important."
I know you guys are gonna freak... and start yammering about how it's meaningless when Management and Directors keep selling (and never buying) shares in the company, even as they drop precipitously... but whatever... I just report the facts and let the discussion meander where it may. Feel free to thumb-down this post.
Anyhow, according to SEDI:
Director David Kong SOLD another 7,000 shares on March 7 for $2.57(CAD).
(He has sold 28,000 shares in the past fortnight. The good news for longs is, he only has 18k left, so this can't go on much longer.)
A close at the lows... do you mean the low for the day, the week, the month, or year to date??? Because today's close smashed them all. I have no clue about Monday, but think it's pretty safe to bet the stock will move lower over the coming weeks, months, and year... particularly in context of the management's behavior and poor operating results (never mind the fraud and regulatory risk inherent in any China-based investment).
And that's why I'm comfortable holding my short position, even paying the dividend for the privilege.
Do you mind if I quote you from last week? -- "stockdude13 - Feb 28, 2014 10:21PM: Of all the red days so far this year SVM is still up 11%. Silver prices technically still have good support at $21 ... SVM goes below $2.40 I'm buyin."
So you were buying today??? Or waiting for the 2.20's??? Or just encouraging others to buy now with moral support?
Because I think now would be a pretty risky time to buy. I'd at least wait to see what the annual report says. And wait to see some Insider buying too. (But what do I know?)
Might be meaningless to you... but not meaningless to me when you see a consistent pattern of ONLY insiders selling, plus no insider buying -- even as the stock price plummets. (Because insiders should have the best perspective on the company's actual prospects and operations results... so when the stock drops dramatically they can act as a sign of hidden value... but only if they decide to buy.)
Did you notice today the stock hit a new low for 2014??? To me that's not a coincidence that it comes soon after insider selling. But I'm always glad that there are people who disagree on value... otherwise we wouldn't have a marketplace. I'm sure you're happy for this opportunity to load up.
Good point! (Did you create this Yahoo ID today just to make the point that Silvercorp is run by people who are not only deceitful, but also incompetent as investors??? I won't disagree.)
Buffett also says he is investing in people, not just a company's assets -- that good management will do well, and it's important to have people you trust.
I'm still not sure what your argument is about other companies with insider selling somehow implying that it's not meaningful that Silvecorp's insiders have only been sellers of this stock, even as it precipitously declines, even as the company stated it would be repurchasing shares in a buy-back, even as more bad news about operations and poor earnings keep coming out. (Perhaps you are angry and bitter that the insiders appear to be looking out only for their own personal financial interests... but being rude to me won't help.)
(And out of curiosity, I took a look at Endeavour Silver (toronto) as you demanded... and I see the stock going both up and down over the past year, and insiders both buying and selling over the past nine months... and I don't see what your point was in the comparison... but maybe the point was simply to be argumentative.)
So to be clear, of the Silvercorp insiders who have reported their trades (and there may well be others who are not reporting):
Shaoyang Shen, the COO, has now sold ALL of his SVM shares.
Earl Drake, a Director, has sold almost all of his shares -- and the 15k he dumped five months ago he sold for well below his cost (but much more than they would have been worth today).
David Kong, a Director, has sold all of the Silvercorp shares he controlled through Anaconda Investments Corp. ...and he was the ONLY insider who even purchased any during the past nine months... and at the same time he was dumping SVM, he was buying shares in New Pacific (which now owns the RZY mine it got from Silvercorp for a pittance, and their new President was a Silvercorp employee) -- what does that tell you about the integrity of the SVM Board???
(((The last time I posted about these verifiable facts, I think I was able to garner 10 thumb-down votes from the faithful... let's see if I can eek out a few more.)))