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Celldex Therapeutics, Inc. Message Board

asicprof 7 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 12, 2014 5:48 PM Member since: Nov 19, 2011
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  • Reply to

    OUR TAKE ON CYTR STORY

    by asicprof Apr 9, 2014 2:00 AM
    asicprof asicprof Jun 12, 2014 5:48 PM Flag

    Congratulations to longs who bought in low 3's . Some investor have taken profit , it is always good to do so , but we haven't sold a single share and we plan to hold until P3 completion or partnership .

    This run is just the beginning , stock has potential to surpass $21 by year end.
    Why street is bullish on CYTR:

    - Very undervalued even at $5.5 compared to peer at same stage of clinical development. Stock will correct itself to $8 range very soon.
    - Street is expecting very positive OS advantage in first line STS P2.
    - Street is also expecting THLD STS P3 trial failure. That will a big catalyst for CYTR. In the event of THLD failure , Aldo will be the sole hope for STS patients.
    - Street also thinks that J&J and CELG must be knocking the door for CYTR in the light of outstanding P2 data .
    Stock will hit $8 sooner than many think. MM are getting large orders during mid day trading since last 3 weeks. This is sign of heavy institution loading.

  • Reply to

    OUR TAKE ON CYTR STORY

    by asicprof Apr 9, 2014 2:00 AM
    asicprof asicprof Jun 9, 2014 1:22 PM Flag

    I am very much here . I was out with family on vacation ..... .Could not get a chance to update.
    All I can say , stock is very cheap with respect to its potential . A strong survival benefit in STS is highly anticipated and management is very confident about BBB. Stock is on trajectory to reach $15 by end of the year.
    A BUY was issued by a Tier 1 analyst to their premium client , mostly institution analyst and Hedge fund.
    BTw premium subscription fee is $15000 /year.
    I can't disclose the name of analyst on the message board , but all I can say , this stock is in heavy accumulation mode from institution and funds. Short are loosing the battle and stock is acting like a coiled spring.

    These analyst will issue BUY rating to public , once their premium clients are loaded. By that time , stock will trade north of $8.

    Do you own DD , but mark this post and compare charts of ACAD and CYTR in a year from now ......you will find them like a xerox copy.

    AP

  • asicprof asicprof Jun 9, 2014 1:25 AM Flag

    Zoom .......
    I am very much here . I was out with family on vacation ..... .Could not get a chance to update.
    All I can say , stock is very cheap with respect to its potential . A strong survival benefit in STS is highly anticipated and management is very confident about BBB. Stock is on trajectory to reach $15 by end of the year.
    A BUY was issued by a Tier 1 analyst to their premium client , mostly institution analyst and Hedge fund.
    BTw premium subscription fee is $15000 /year.
    I can't disclose the name of analyst on the message board , but all I can say , this stock is in heavy accumulation mode from institution and funds. Short are loosing the battle and stock is acting like a coiled spring.

    These analyst will issue BUY rating to public , once their premium clients are loaded. By that time , stock will trade north of $8.

    Do you own DD , but mark this post and compare charts of ACAD and CYTR in a year from now ......you will find them like a xerox copy.

    AP

  • Reply to

    OUR TAKE ON CYTR STORY

    by asicprof Apr 9, 2014 2:00 AM
    asicprof asicprof Jun 4, 2014 2:11 PM Flag

    Just had a conversation with a representative who attended the conference .
    Very-very-very bullish view. It is very clear now that Also is crossing BBB.
    Few funds are trying to control the PPS , as they are either involved in shorting or took the premium for call options.

    I will write more details this evening.
    But key take away:

    - Aldo might show 1-2 year survival advantage in STS P2 (Result expected in Q3.)
    - Aldo is crossing BB . CYTR might even issue a PR to confirm this . (Listen to RnD day presentation and today CC to get a feel of this confidence).
    - Partnership interest.
    - Year end target is $15 on positive GBM results.

    We bought another 18K share today.

    Do your own DD

  • Reply to

    OUR TAKE ON CYTR STORY

    by asicprof Apr 9, 2014 2:00 AM
    asicprof asicprof May 30, 2014 3:23 AM Flag

    Zoom ......All I can say .....this dip is a buying opportunity ......this is a healthy dip . This stock is in heavy accumulation from hedge funds and institution . Look for 60 % institution ownership in next Qtr reporting. MM are trying hard to allow their clients to fill their larger order without shooting the PPS up.
    As far as Asco results are concerned , ........results are nothing but outstanding .
    The important thing to note here is .......P-value did not degrade ....in-fact ,it has improved in Independent lab review. Hazard ratio are still intact even after 6 month from the primary results .
    What it means:
    Aldo efficacy is long lasting and PFS curve separation is consistent .
    We assign more than 70% chance of P3 success .
    But , this company will get bought out before we hear P3 results . There is lot of chat in WS about this little next Abraxane.

    AP

  • Reply to

    OUR TAKE ON CYTR STORY

    by asicprof Apr 9, 2014 2:00 AM
    asicprof asicprof May 18, 2014 7:13 PM Flag

    Hi Nealde .......Thanks .

    36% institution holding is just beginning . I met couple of fund manager's last week and we concluded that CYTR is on the way of joining class of ACAD or PCYC , where institution holding is 90%.
    Keep in mid Aldo could be next Abraxane ......and current PPS is offering 95% discount .
    CELG paid $3B to acquire Abraxane . The mechanism of action of Aldo and Abraxane is quite similar.
    Aldo will be worth more Abarxane if approved for STS and GBM.

    The current depressed PPS is a coordinated effort of MM and Fund to get cheap share .........but now situation is getting out of control due to back pressure ......i.e more and more long term investor are jumping in . When number of long term investors like funds increase , it makes difficult for MM to suppress the PPS to trigger stop loses .

    Stock is due for a sharp move to its fair value around $6-8 .

  • Reply to

    OUR TAKE ON CYTR STORY

    by asicprof Apr 9, 2014 2:00 AM
    asicprof asicprof May 10, 2014 9:47 PM Flag

    We increased our position in CYTR with another 150K shares after analyzing updated results and research and development day presentation.
    Here are our views in current situation :

    Lawsuit :
    1) We conclude lawsuit against CYTR is frivolous . One can gauge the desperation of lawyer to get investor involved by just seeing the number of PR issues in last 72 hours. The matter of the fact is that we or other funds who invest more than 100K in biotech stock never reads Seeking Alpha articles. We read Seeking alpha articles only after learning about lawsuits.
    If one is investing 100K in stocks based on Seeking Alpha articles , then he deserves to loose money.
    These kind of lawsuits rarely go anywhere , as it takes many year to get on conclusion.
    One can look for history of lawsuits on companies : DNDN , KERX , DCTH , ARIA and many more.

    2) Paid promotion is very common. The important thing is that none of the information in the articles was materially false.

    Research and Development day: There were several interesting information was shared by CYTR team. Here is our conclusion from the event:

    1) FDA is really impressed by Aldo safety , which is why they allowed unlimited Aldo dosing until progression.
    This provision drastically increases the chances of P3 trial success . Many investors has ignored this very important news.

    2) CYTR management /Doctors are super confident about GBM trial . Keep in mind , GBM trial is randomize but OPEN. The patients tumor imaging in done every six week . There is a possibility that trial Doctors are seeing tumor reduction in Aldo patients . The recurrent GBM is a lethal condition , it will not be surprising to see that trial gets an early halt and CYTR goes to FDA if early sign of efficacy is seen.

    3) We think that CYTR is keeping some very important data with them for ASCO presentation . There is a chance that they have OS trend in hand. Keep a close eye on Hazard ratio improvement for PFS data.
    Disclaimer : Do your own DD.

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