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T. Rowe Price Emerging Markets Stock Message Board

asoysal 7 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 22, 2014 1:30 PM Member since: Jul 25, 2001
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  • Time to make some money now. Good luck to you all.
    Yahoo does not let me add the link. Go to google finance and read "why-citigroup-sees-94-upside-in-petrobras-pbr-stock" in the PRB news

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Time to make some money now. Good luck to you all.
    Link is here:
    http://www.bidnessetc.com/31100-why-citigroup-sees-94-upside-in-petrobras-pbr-stock/

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Third Quarter 2014 Condensed Information



    Rio de Janeiro, December 12, 2014 – Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. – Petrobras announces that today, in light of new facts that occurred after November 13, 2014, directly or indirectly related to the “Lava Jato Operation”, it decided not to file its consolidated interim financial statements for the 3rd quarter 2014 not reviewed by the independent auditors. These facts are set out below:

    (i) Obtained a waiver for its earliest financial reporting covenants that allows the Company to release its interim financial statements for the 3rd quarter 2014 by January 31, 2015, with no risk of acceleration of its finance debt by its creditors;
    (ii) On November 21, 2014, Petrobras received a subpoena from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requesting certain documents relating to an investigation of the Company by the SEC;
    (iii) On December 3, 2014, Petrobras gained access to the depositions of Mr. Julio Gerin de Almeida Camargo (Grupo Toyo) and Mr. Augusto Ribeiro de Mendonça Neto (Grupo Setal) given as state’s evidence to prosecutors;
    (iv) On December 9, 2014, the Company was served with a class-action complaint filed by Mr. Peter Kaltman before the U.S. Court (United States District Court, Southern District of New York). We expect additional complaints to be filed, which could potentially be consolidated with Kaltman’s complaint;
    (v) On November 11, 2014, criminal charges were filed by the Brazilian Public Prosecutor’s Office against several individuals, including the Former Director of Downstream, Paulo Roberto Costa, and managers of other companies for active corruption, passive corruption, organized crime, money-laundering and falsification of documents.

    However, in order to comply with its responsibility to inform and to foster diligence and transparency the Company is releasing information regarding its operational performance and certain other financial information that Petrobras believes would not be affected by the potential adjustments to its financial statements resulting from the “Lava Jato Operation”. This information has not been reviewed by our independent auditors.

    Amounts in millions of Reais (R$)





    Jan - Sep

    3Q-2014
    2Q-2014
    3Q-14 X 2Q-14 (%)
    3Q-2013

    2014
    2013
    2014 x 2013 (%)








    88,378
    82,298
    7
    77,700
    Sales Revenues
    252,221
    223,862
    13
    62,409
    58,140
    7
    39,350
    Cash and Cash Equivalents
    62,409
    39,350
    59
    2,746
    2,600
    6
    2,522
    Total crude oil and natural gas production (Mbbl/day)
    2,627
    2,542
    3
    261,445
    241,349
    8
    192,987
    Net debt
    261,445
    192,987
    35
    4,249
    (2,625)

    (5,232)
    Free cash flow
    (9,154)
    (12,820)

    70,259
    66,363
    6
    57,879
    Adjusted Cash and Cash Equivalents
    70,259
    57,879
    21
    229,723
    217,725
    6
    229,078
    Market capitalization (Parent Company)
    229,723
    229,078











    Sales Revenues reached R$ 88,378 million and Cash and Cash Equivalents reached R$ 62,409 million in the 3Q-2014.

    Sales revenues were 7% higher when compared to the 2Q-2014, resulting from higher crude oil exports and increased domestic demand, mainly diesel, which was mostly met by domestic output of oil products. When compared to Jan-Sep/2013, the 13% increase in sales revenues is attributable to higher oil product prices in the domestic market resulting from the impact in the full year of 2014 of diesel and gasoline price adjustments in 2013 and the impact of foreign currency depreciation (8%) over the price of oil products that are adjusted to reflect international prices and export prices, as well as higher electricity and natural gas prices. Domestic demand for oil products increased by 3%, mainly diesel (2%), gasoline (5%) and fuel oil (21%), and crude oil exports volume was 12% higher, partially offset by a decrease in fuel oil exports volume (14%).

    Our Executive Officers recently approved the implementation of a series of actions that will be undertaken in order to maintain our cash level, which was R$ 62.4 billion as of September 30, 2014, and the liquidity of the Company. These actions include, for example, discounting receivables, reducing the level of capital expenditures, reviewing product pricing strategies and reducing operating costs in activities that were out of the scope of our structuring cost reduction programs; and assure positive free cash flow next year, considering crude oil prices of around U.S.$ 70/bbl and foreign exchange rate of R$ 2.60/U.S.$; thus eliminating the need for additional financing in the capital markets next year

    OPERATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS






    Jan-Sep
    3Q-2014
    2Q-2014
    3Q14 X 2Q14 (%)
    3Q-2013
    Domestic production (Mbbl/day)
    2014
    2013
    2014 x 2013 (%)








    2,090
    1,972
    6
    1,924
    Crude oil and NGLs
    1,995
    1,922
    4
    441
    411
    7
    390
    Natural gas
    418
    392
    7
    2,531
    2,383
    6
    2,314
    Total
    2,413
    2,314
    4









    (3Q-2014 x 2Q-2014): The 6% increase in crude oil and NGL production is attributable to the ramp-up of P-55 (Roncador), P-62 (Roncador), P-58 (Parque das Baleias) and FPSO Cidade de Paraty (Lula NE), along with the start-up of the extended well test of Iara Oeste and of the Anticipated Production System of Tartaruga Verde.

    Natural gas production increased by 7% due to a higher production in P-53 (Marlim Leste), P-54 (Roncador), P-55 (Roncador), P-62 (Roncador), P-58 (Parque das Baleias), FPSOs Cidade de Santos (Uruguá-Tambaú) and Cidade de Paraty (Lula NE).

    (Jan-Sep/2014 x Jan-Sep/2013): Crude oil and NGL production increased by 4% in Jan-Sep/2014 resulting from the start-up of Stationary Production Units P-63 (Papa-Terra), P-55 (Roncador), P-62 (Roncador) and P-58 (Parque das Baleias) and from the ramp-up of FPSO Cidade de Itajaí (Baúna), Cidade de Paraty (Lula NE) and Cidade de São Paulo (Sapinhoá). The natural decline of fields partially offset these effects.

    The 7% increase in natural gas production is attributable to a higher production in Mexilhão, Parque das Baleias, Uruguá-Tambaú, Sapinhoá and Lula Nordeste fields.








    Jan - Sep

    3Q-2014
    2T-2014
    3Q14 X 2T14 (%)
    3Q-2013

    2014
    2013
    2014 x 2013 (%)








    1,049
    999
    5
    1,031
    Diesel
    998
    977
    2
    616
    619

    587
    Gasoline
    612
    583
    5
    126
    114
    11
    71
    Fuel oil
    117
    97
    21
    160
    162
    (1)
    172
    Naphtha
    167
    174
    (4)
    247
    237
    4
    243
    LPG
    235
    230
    2
    110
    108
    2
    108
    Jet fuel
    110
    105
    5
    225
    204
    10
    210
    Others
    210
    203
    3
    2,533
    2,443
    4
    2,422
    Total oil products
    2,449
    2,369
    3
    98
    88
    11
    95
    Ethanol, nitrogen fertilizers, renewables and other products
    94
    86
    9
    449
    451

    392
    Natural gas
    442
    415
    7
    3,080
    2,982
    3
    2,909
    Total domestic market
    2,985
    2,870
    4
    496
    309
    61
    402
    Exports
    392
    392

    567
    598
    (5)
    505
    International sales
    574
    498
    15
    1,063
    907
    17
    907
    Total international market
    966
    890
    9
    4,143
    3,889
    7
    3,816
    Total
    3,951
    3,760
    5









    (3Q-2014 x 2Q-2014): Our domestic sales volumes increased by 3% when compared to the 2Q-2014, primarily resulting from:

    • Diesel (a 5% increase) – due to seasonal demand to support summer grain seeding and industrial activity, as well as higher consumption by thermoelectric plants;

    • Fuel oil (an 11% increase) – due to higher consumption by thermoelectric plants; and

    • LPG (a 4% increase) – due to the lower average temperatures and higher economic activity.

    (Jan-Sep/2014 x Jan-Sep/2013): Our domestic sales volumes increased by 4% in Jan-Sep/2014 when compared to Jan-Sep/2013, primarily resulting from:

    • Diesel (a 2% increase) – due to higher consumption by infrastructure construction work and an increase in the Brazilian diesel-fueled light vehicle fleet (vans, pick-ups and SUVs);

    • Gasoline (a 5% increase) – due to an increase in the automotive fleet attributable to the competitive advantage of gasoline prices relatively to ethanol prices in most Brazilian states and to a higher household consumption. An increase in the anhydrous ethanol mandatory content in Type C gasoline from 20% to 25% partially offset these effects; and

    • Fuel oil (a 21% increase) – higher demand by ancillary thermoelectric plants in several Brazilian states when compared to Jan-Sep/2013

    OPERATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS






    Jan-Sep
    3Q-2014
    2Q-2014
    3Q14 X 2Q14 (%)
    3Q-2013
    Imports and Exports of Crude Oil and Oil Products (Mbbl/day)
    2014
    2013
    2014 x 2013 (%)








    303
    534
    (43)
    334
    Crude oil imports
    399
    421
    (5)
    410
    407
    1
    493
    Oil product imports
    414
    377
    10
    713
    941
    (24)
    827
    Imports of crude oil and oil products
    813
    798
    2
    323
    138
    134
    206
    Crude oil exports
    219
    195
    12
    168
    170
    (1)
    196
    Oil product exports
    170
    195
    (13)
    491
    308
    59
    402
    Exports of crude oil and oil products
    389
    390

    (222)
    (633)
    65
    (425)
    Exports (imports) net of crude oil and oil products
    (424)
    (408)
    (4)
    5
    1


    Other exports
    3
    2
    50










    (3Q-2014 x 2Q-2014): Crude oil exports were higher, due to an increase in crude oil production and to the realization of exports that were in transit on June 30.
    The decrease in crude oil imports is attributable to the higher import volume in the 2Q-2014 attributable to economic signals of trading opportunities.

    (Jan-Sep/2014 x Jan-Sep/2013): Crude oil exports and refining throughput were higher, resulting from an increase in crude oil production, which helped reduce crude oil imports.

    Oil product imports were higher and oil product exports were lower in Jan-Sep/2014 when compared to Jan-Sep/2013 to meet an increase in domestic demand.








    Jan-Sep
    3Q-2014
    2Q-2014
    3Q14 X 2Q14 (%)
    3Q-2013
    Refining Operations (Mbbl/day)
    2014
    2013
    2014 x 2013 (%)








    2,204
    2,180
    1
    2,128
    Output of oil products
    2,170
    2,131
    2
    2,102
    2,102

    2,102
    Reference feedstock
    2,102
    2,102

    100
    98
    2
    96
    Refining plants utilization factor (%)
    98
    97
    1
    2,094
    2,064
    1
    2,027
    Feedstock processed (crude oil) - Brazil
    2,059
    2,041
    1
    2,138
    2,101
    2
    2,072
    Feedstock processed (crude oil and NGL) - Brazil
    2,099
    2,086
    1
    80
    82
    (2)
    82
    Domestic crude oil as % of total feedstock processed
    82
    81
    1










    (3Q-2014 x 2Q-2014): Daily feedstock processed increased by 2% due to lower maintenance stoppages in the 3Q-2014.

    (Jan-Sep/2014 x Jan-Sep/2013): Daily feedstock processed was 1% higher in Jan-Sep/2014 when compared to Jan-Sep/2013, resulting from a sustainable improvement of the performance of our refineries. The 2% increase in our output of oil products is attributable to the higher conversion of intermediate products.


    OPERATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS








    Jan-Sep
    3Q-2014
    2Q-2014
    3Q14 X 2Q14 (%)
    3Q-2013
    Physical and Financial Indicators – Gas & Power
    2014
    2013
    2014 x 2013 (%)








    1,196
    1,157
    3
    1,873
    Electricity sales (Free Contracting Environment - ACL) - average MW
    1,201
    2,026
    (41)
    2,671
    2,453
    9
    1,798
    Electricity sales (Regulated contracting environment - ACR) - average MW
    2,341
    1,798
    30
    4,789
    4,690
    2
    3,483
    Electricity Generation - average MW
    4,534
    4,359
    4
    671
    649
    3
    180
    Spot Prices (difference settlement price) - R$/MWh
    657
    252
    161
    116
    150
    (23)
    84
    Imports of LNG (Mbbl/day)
    128
    102
    25
    210
    205
    2
    197
    Imports of natural gas (Mbbl/day)
    206
    197
    5










    (3Q-2014 x 2Q-2014): Electricity sales volumes were 3% higher in the Free Contracting Environment – ACL due to seasonal long-term agreements and to higher sales volumes in the spot market.

    Electricity sales volumes were 9% higher in the Regulated Contracting Environment – ACR due to the full impact of the 574 average MW sold in the A0/2014 electricity auction, which was delivered as from May 2014.

    The 2% increase in electricity generation is attributable to higher thermoelectric demand in August, setting a monthly record level for 2014, compared to a lower level in June, resulting from higher rainfall levels in the Southern region of Brazil.

    The 23% decrease in LNG imports was due to a higher supply of domestic natural gas attributable to an increase in natural gas production.

    The 2% increase in natural gas imports from Bolivia was due to higher thermoelectric demand.

    (Jan-Sep/2014 x Jan-Sep/2013): Electricity sales volumes were 41% lower in Jan-Sep/2014 when compared to Jan-Sep/2013 resulting from the shift of a portion of our available capacity (574 average MW) towards the regulated contracting environment in the domestic market (Regulated Contracting Environment – ACR). The termination of our lease agreement for UTE Araucária, which reduced the availability of electricity for trading (349 average MW) and the lower demand in the spot market, attributable to higher spot prices, also reduced our sales volumes.

    Electricity generation was 4% higher and spot prices increased by 161% due to lower rainfall levels in the period.

    LNG imports and natural gas imports from Bolivia were 25% and 5% higher, respectively, to meet a higher thermoelectric demand.


    FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS

    Main Items and Consolidated Economic Indicators

    In millions of Reais (R$)





    Jan - Sep

    3Q-2014
    2Q-2014
    3Q14 X 2Q14 (%)
    3Q-2013

    2014
    2013
    2014 x 2013 (%)








    88,378
    82,298
    7
    77,700
    Sales Revenues
    252,221
    223,862
    13




    Sales Revenues by business area



    39,763
    39,290
    1
    39,495
    · E&P
    118,625
    107,450
    10
    69,131
    64,950
    6
    61,129
    · RTM
    198,227
    176,309
    12
    10,566
    10,372
    2
    7,087
    · Gas & Power
    30,491
    23,160
    32
    179
    142
    26
    198
    · Biofuels
    436
    655
    (33)
    25,436
    23,872
    7
    21,266
    · Distribution
    72,807
    63,245
    15
    8,182
    8,672
    (6)
    8,472
    · International
    25,175
    25,926
    (3)








    101.85
    109.63
    (7)
    110.37
    Brent crude (US$/bbl)
    106.57
    108.45
    (2)
    2.27
    2.23
    2
    2.29
    U.S. dollar average commercial selling rate (R$)
    2.29
    2.12
    8
    2.45
    2.20
    11
    2.23
    U.S. dollar period-end commercial selling rate (R$)
    2.45
    2.23
    10
    11.3
    (2.7)

    0.6
    U.S. dollar period-end commercial selling rate variation (%)
    4.6
    9.1

    10.90
    10.89

    8.51
    Selic interest rate - average (%)
    10.74
    7.74
    3












    Average price indicators



    224.52
    225.36

    210.00
    Domestic basic oil products price (R$/bbl)
    225.74
    207.04
    9




    Sales price - Brazil



    90.73
    99.02
    (8)
    98.87
    . Crude oil (U.S. dollars/bbl)
    95.77
    98.64
    (3)
    49.28
    49.58
    (1)
    46.35
    . Natural gas (U.S. dollars/bbl)
    48.76
    48.51
    1




    Sales price - International



    84.05
    87.91
    (4)
    85.97
    . Crude oil (U.S. dollars/bbl)
    85.46
    90.65
    (6)
    19.16
    20.36
    (6)
    18.38
    . Natural gas (U.S. dollars/bbl)
    20.83
    20.88









    Consolidated finance debt


    R$ million





    09.30.2014
    12.31.2013
    Δ%




    Current debt
    28,243
    18,782
    50
    Non-current debt
    303,461
    249,038
    22
    Total
    331,704
    267,820
    24
    Cash and cash equivalents
    62,409
    37,172
    68
    Government securities (maturity of more than 90 days)
    7,850
    9,085
    (14)
    Adjusted cash and cash equivalents
    70,259
    46,257
    52
    Net debt
    261,445
    221,563
    18

    U.S.$ million





    09.30.2014
    12.31.2013
    Δ%




    Current debt
    11,523
    8,017
    44
    Non-current debt
    123,811
    106,308
    16
    Total
    135,334
    114,325
    18
    Net debt
    106,668
    94,579
    13

    R$ million





    09.30.2014
    12.31.2013
    Δ%
    Summarized information on financing



    Floating rate debt
    169,554
    138,463
    22
    Fixed rate debt
    161,947
    129,148
    25
    Total
    331,501
    267,611
    24
    By Currency



    Reais
    63,087
    53,465
    18
    US Dollars
    233,616
    191,572
    22
    Euro
    24,599
    14,987
    64
    Other currencies
    10,199
    7,587
    34
    Total
    331,501
    267,611
    24
    By Period



    2014
    13,293
    18,744
    (29)
    2015
    19,390
    17,017
    14
    2016
    31,421
    29,731
    6
    2017
    29,792
    20,331
    47
    2018
    45,017
    37,598
    20
    2019 and thereafter
    192,588
    144,190
    34
    Total
    331,501
    267,611
    24





    Our consolidated net debt in Reais increased by 18% as of September 30, 2014, when compared to December 31, 2013, resulting from additional long-term financing and from the impact of the 4.6% depreciation of the Real against the U.S. dollar. Net debt includes finance lease obligations of R$ 203 million as of September 30, 2014, and R$ 209 million as of December 31, 2013.


    Measures to improve corporate governance and internal controls

    The Company has undertaken the following initiatives to improve its corporate governance system:

    - on November 25, 2014 the Board of Directors approved the creation of the position of Executive Director of Governance, Risk and Compliance, replacing the position of Executive Director of the International business area, with the aim of supporting the Company’s compliance programs and to mitigate risks in its activities, including fraud and corruption. The new Director will serve a three-year term and will only be removed if determined by the Board of Directors, with quorum including the vote of at least one Board Member elected by the minority or by the preferred shareholders. Before being presented to the Executive Board, matters regarding corporate governance, risk management and compliance shall be approved by the new Director. The Board of Directors will appoint the new Director from a list of three professionals, previously selected by an executive search firm. By the end of January, the new Director will have been appointed and will be undertaking its duties;

    - the development and implementation, between 2012 and 2014, of 66 measures to improve corporate governance, risk management and control, which are documented in standards and minutes of management meetings that establish procedures, methods, responsibilities and other guidelines to integrate such measures into the Company’s practices;

    - implemented changes in Company management as a result of the findings from the Internal Investigative Committees due to failures to comply with internal policies. It is important to note that the Company has not dismissed any personnel, because the reports from the Internal Investigative Committees have not yet provided evidence of fraudulent intent, bad faith or receipt of improper advantages with respect to the employees named therein.

    The Company continues to assess the effectiveness of internal controls over financial reporting mainly considering the conclusions reached thus far by the Internal Investigative Committees, and any necessary changes to its control environment will be implemented.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • asoysal asoysal Nov 7, 2014 3:45 AM Flag

    Real is down 64% since 2011 against USD
    Oil is down 20-25% in USD in the same period
    PBR probably needs another %30 increase in gas prices to go back to those levels where it used to lose money for every gallon of oil it imports (still not profitable due to imports)
    Needless to say lower oil price is very bad for an oil producing company..I really did not understand your point..
    Plus real might do down further in the shrinking business environment in Brazil..

    Sentiment: Sell

  • asoysal asoysal Nov 7, 2014 2:33 AM Flag

    The real hit a nine and a half year low of R$2.53 per dollar on Tuesday after a larger-than-expected drop in industrial production for September further darkened the outlook for Brazil's economy.

    Including Tuesday's losses, the real has now fallen more than 64 per cent against the dollar since hitting a high of R$1.54 back in July 2011. This despite support from the carry trade.

    Analysts at Morgan Stanley reckon that the real can weaken to as low as R$2.80 to the dollar by the end of next year.

    Source: financial times

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Brazil's Real is at the lowest in the last 9 years. It just lost 2.4% of its value against US$ in one day. Then PBR increases fuel prices 3%. It does not even cover the currency devaluation..
    As PBR imports in US$ and as US$ gets stronger PBR needs to make adjustment accordingly. Right now it is not happening. They are just trying to continue to control inflation by controlling the fuel prices..
    PBR continues to lose money from every gallon of oil it imports..

    Good luck

    Sentiment: Sell

  • asoysal by asoysal Oct 27, 2014 3:55 AM Flag

    I sold all my Pbr stocks around $19.40.
    Looking at the last 4 years it is pretty clear what potential issues company would have (corrupon, goverment intervention etc). Plus lower oil prices, cost of deep ocean drilling and high debt and worsening credit rating..
    I will wait and if I find an opportunity I might invest again (I am looking for $10 price) otherwise investing in stable oil companies might make more sense for me.
    Wish the bezt for you all, good luck

    Sentiment: Sell

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