Guy is a fool. The past is no predictor of the future. What worked in the past is no leading indicator. Look at gold. For 10 years it was up an average of 22 % a year. Last year it plunged. JC Penney long a tried and true retailer that your mother and grandmother shopped at now almost bankrupt. Look at your landlines. They have been replaced by wireless. Point is things change. Taxi has changed. Medallions no longer a store of value. Too much supply. Medallions numbered 11000 in 2001 now 14000 and more added every week and the number of riders have decreased. Taxi needs to find a new business model. Long term no upside. Short term a little upside but only after earnings. Remember $14 big big resistance. Nice dividend but beware of dividend traps.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Again you are all bluster, Won't make a prediction, will not give facts and as usual when you speak the price goes down even further. Like most young people today you lack knowledge. And like most young people you have a whole lot of Attitude.
first who is Sandler O'Neill? An analyist you say? What valuation metrics is he using to come up with 18? What kind of track record does he have?Now look at my track record- on dec 19 I Said if this stock loses 2 cents on the day the shorts would pile in. And that is exactly what happened. Then on Jan 22 I made another prediction (check the board) that if on the next day if we were down so much as a penny we would be visiting the lows. We not only visited the lows we made lower lows. I gather you are trying to make a prediction here? Please state it and be very clear. My latest prediction this stock will never a close above $14 until after earnings (a month from now) and then maybe not even then. My record stands for itself. So are you saying buy it here and sell it at 14? Or 18? What Institutions are selling? For one PDT Partners LLC completely sold out their positions as did Brown Brothers Harriman, as did White Bay Partners LLC. Morgan Stanley sold out 18% of their position. North Point Capital sold out 15% of their position. JPMorgan Chase sold out 15% of their position, and COMMONWEALTH OF PENNSYLVANIA PUBLIC SCHOOL EMPLS RETRMT SYS sold out 15% of their position. And that was as of Sept 30. Who knows how much more they have sold since then. Now if you are to have any credibility on this board state your prediction; Where would you buy, where would you cut your losses, and where would you sell to take profits? I will let your prediction unfold without any judgemental comments as you will mine. Thank you
Taxi is down for good reason. For starters massive dilution of equity when stock was at an all time high. Now does anybody really expect the stock to get back to all time highs? Using a little common sense one can surely see if this is to happen it is a long time away. Now the above poster says Morgan Stanley sold to retail investors instead of institutional accounts. And for good reason! Institutions are a very savvy bunch.
No way they would buy Taxi. When they figured out all the BS surrounding Taxi and NY Yellow medallions they all headed for the exits at once. (which is why for the last 30 days the price has gone straight down).
I have outlined all the problems surrounding Taxi. They have not gone away. Read some of my previous posts. Taxi is in a bear market (lower highs and lower lows and below its 200 day moving average). Taxi is down over 23% from its all time high. Our well meaning poster is betting on hope and a pray! not on the facts. Taxi will never close above 14 until after earnings and only if the market likes what it hears and the way things are at the present my bets are with the bears. Price objective: more new lows. My hat off to the poster at least he is trying. Now if the Taxi people in their comfortable Park Ave offices could write some supportive comments on this board maybe Taxi could be off to the races but don't hold your breath! Taxi is rated dead last in shareholder friendliness by the corporate governance review board. So Mr. Taxi President, man up! and state your case in this forum. The jury won't be out for long.
Today Jan 23 Market makers had a good time trying to suck in new buyers at 13.96 and above. I believe we will not see this price again until a couple of days before the earnings release which is march 5th.
Earnings usually come out 5Th week after the quarter has ended, Checking Etrade earnings won't be coming out till March 5th a full 9 to ten weeks after the quarter has ended for Taxi. This may mean earnings will be a big disappointment. That is the usual result with such delays. Be safe; no new buys till after the earnings announcement.
I am going to go on a limb today. Prediction; if Taxi loses value today so much as a penny lights out! Taxi to revisit recent lows. In other words you will be paying for repairs and the meter will be in reverse. Prediction is for jan 23. Last time I was on the money.
Now people that live in the outlying areas of Manhattan Queens and Brooklyn that I just mentioned above had no great need for yellow cabs but they did take some and now they take none thanks to the green taxis. So all the yellow that had trips to the outlying areas of nyc now all rush back to midtown to fight for the remaining crumbs.
Well at least the Mayor let us have midtown and the surrounding residential area for street hails An area of less than 8 miles long and 2 miles wide for 14000 taxis. But wait we don't even have that. Green taxis can go to midtown and pick up passengers if they are on a radio call. Its gets better! De Blassio the new mayor promised to end the horse drawn carriage trade. In their place will be electric taxis that will be free to roam the crooked winding streets of Greenwich Village and the canyon like cathedrals of Manhattan's skyline. Add to that new yellow medallions to be auctioned off that will add to the present medallion population 0f 14000. And remember New Yorkers are spoiled and a demanding group so it is not inconceivable that the general riding population in a few years will take the cab they see first green or yellow. The current city plan is to have 18000 green taxis. Wall street discounts the future and its an uncertain future for the yellow taxis.
Presently there are thousands of green taxis in NYC. Thousands more are on the way. Six months ago there were not a one. There were only the yellow taxis and the black cars. Black cars would pick up wherever they could. Most people would avoid the black cars because they were more expensive, had no meters, and their drivers had unsavory reputations so the business of street pickups was left to mostly the yellow taxis. Now the Mayor thought it was a good idea if NY had thousands of green taxis with meters and roof lights that would look exactly like yellow taxis. A first time visitor to NY would not know there was any difference between the green and the yellow. Technically green taxis can only pickup in in the outer boroughs and north of 96 st on the east side and North of 110 st on the west side. North of 110 st is Columbia University where when I was in that area I would pick up fares. Today I skip that area because green taxis legally flood that area with their presence. Colombia people now take green taxis if they see one first. So I'm forced to go to midtown where I have to fight with 14000 other yellows for the street hail. By the way this adds to the traffic congestion to NY and adds to the worsening of the air quality in which the federal government has stated and awarded NY the worse air quality of any major city in the USA. Now at the 125 st railway station there were people who would take the black cars but others who would wait for the yellow. The green now have legal presence there and where some people would wait for the yellow now take the green. So now I and my fellow yellow taxi drivers who would normally service that area go straight to midtown with the other 14000 yellow taxis. Same could be said of Washington Heights,and Inwood sections of Manhattan. Ditto for the Woodside, Forest Hills, Rego Park, Shea Stadium, Jackson Heights area of Queens and various parts of Brookyn.
I will give you a detailed response in a few days. Meanwhile go over my previous posts and catch
my drift as there are some useful insights. Be diligent and don't try to bottom fish. When the downdraft is over the big boys will start buying and you will see it reflected in the charts. Look for early clues by watching insider buying. The last selloff saw insider buying by board member Lowell
Weiker which proved uncanny. Presently there is no insider buying activity.
You know nothing. That's why every time you open your big mouth the price of Taxi falls even further.
So far everything I've said has bore fruit and saved the readers of this board a ton of money. Scmuck!
For all of you who follow this board you know only all too well how I feel about Taxi. If you are thinking about investing in Taxi you will do well to read some of my past comments. I live in NYC, have driven and owned a taxi and while there is a lot I don't know there is a lot I do know. If you have any questions feel free to contact me on this board. In a nutshell between Uber and the green Taxis plaguing the streets of NYC the value of yellow cabs will be a diminishing asset for a long time. Taxi does pay a dividend which will support the price for a short while. Any daily close over 14.22 will lead to further gains maybe all the way to $16 where money managers will come out of the woodwork and sell with a vengeance. If you like fast action this may be a good short term play and that's all. Remember be informed.
Will take a lot of time to repair the damage. If you want pain and no gain then Taxi is for you. Somewhere there is a silver lining- someone please tell me where ?
I expect this rally might take us to the 14.15 level; anything over 14.37 on a closing basis and I will become very positive. Short term only as long term, medallions will come down and as Taxi is nothing more than a play on the value of nyc medallions may I suggest taxi is a short term holding only. Remember nyc green taxis are slowly siphoning yellow taxi revenue and in a few years the taxi riding public will not discriminate between the yellow and the green taxis. Wall street knows this, the market knows this and if you don't , just enjoy seeing your money disappear! You can thank Mayor Bloomberg who instituted the Green monsters.
You can also thank Gov Mario comatose Cuomo and the rest of the Taxi board for not stopping it.
Yes Mark I searched the Boston Globe and besides the Globe reporting on what a terrible mess the Boston taxis are there is no mention of upcoming auction sales. The last auction on Boston Medallions was in 1999 when Boston sold 75 medallions. the green taxi is the biggest threat to the value of yellow medallions. Already Green taxis have siphoned off revenue that went to yellow cabs. These little green #$%$ pickup fares alongside the yellows although not legally allowed to do so, do it anyway and who is to stop them? Police don't have the manpower. These green cabs look exactly like yellows with roof lights and digital meters. Visually there is no difference other than one is green and the other yellow so eventually the customer will take whatever cab comes first. By that time yellows will be lucky if
they retain half of their value. This is not what is happening now but this will be the future. The market always discounts the future. Kudos to Boston who protect their owners and drivers.
Net Share Purchase Activity
Insider Purchases - Last 6 Months
Purchases 1,250 2
Sales 10,102 2
Net Shares Purchased
(Sold) (8,852) 4
Total Insider Shares Held 3.22M N/A
% Net Shares Purchased
(Sold) (0.3%) N/A
Net Institutional Purchases - Prior Qtr to Latest Qtr
Net Shares Purchased
% Change in Institutional Shares Held (17.69%)
Data provided by Thomson Financial
Company insiders selling, institutions selling, why should I be buying?
On another note I hate seeing lower prices and seeing people losing their money. Taxi as of right now is on a trajectory of diminishing or zero growth and Wall St. disdains those companies. Taxi needs to reinvent themselves and find another business model. Being in the taxi industry for many years I will say that Taxi officers are very adept at knowing their customer and assessing their ability to repay their loans and I give them the highest marks in that regard.