I can't even bear to go and look. I had no idea whether gold was going up or down from 1700, and neither did anyone whose idea of "fundamentals" was a spreadsheet with the single word "Obama" in 90-point type.
The disease goes even deeper than betting their politics. These people have prospered their entire lives by trying to figure out what Authority is telling them, and then trying as hard as they can to believe whatever that is. It works in school or in most organizations & professions. Unfortunately it's lmao as a way to invest, is the only problem.
What is it about options that gives people brainlock? The worst case is it goes *down* not up.
The concern for me is the same as with a lot of companies that are financed with a lot of short-term low-rate debt right now. P/E is low, but that's partly because very little return is going to the lenders & P/E makes no provision for paying off the principal.
Uh, translating into message-board buzzwords, it looks cheap going by Price to Earnings, but less cheap in terms of Enterprise Value to Operating Earnings.
I can't tell. I got nervous about the debt when the stock went into the mid-80s and sold. I'm still trying to figure out whether to buy it around 70 or not.
If more Berkies learned and lived this, they'd be a lot better off. I never understood Pier 1, figured as you did that Berkshire must be right, but couldn't explain to my wife *why* they were right and eventually gave up trying. If I can't convince her I don't buy, so we lucked out on this one.
Stock tips don't work. Nobody knows exactly why they don't work, but they really don't.
jad is good as far as he goes. I read what he says. Top few on this board.
I was taught long ago that when I don't understand something I need to think harder. jad was taught that when he doesn't understand something it's bull. Depending on the situation, either one can be true.
Could be the same big institutions just have both companies on their lists & buy or sell with client $ flow.
I think it's pretty clear to people who know valuation that the stock is going up. But nobody knows exactly when it goes up and nobody wants to sit with dead money.
Everybody loves to think that they're going to trade out with a quick profit. But face it, Plan B is you're a long-term investor. So value does influence what folks will pay.
For value, we do a valuation. Here's a simple conservative valuation -- 4 scenarios, two of them very negative.
A. Nightmare Scenario. Stock is worthless. $0 a share. I see no sign of this, but why not put it in the mix?
A. Sad Scenario. Earnings fall back to say $0.40 a share net and do not rebound. Long-term value 10x earnings, $4 a share.
B. Medium Scenario. Long-term, earnings sit at the 2011-2012 level, $0.90 a share, long term value 12x earnings, $11 a share.
C. Growth resumes from the 2011-2012 level of 25M ($0.90 a share) to $1.50 a share. Long term value 14x earnings, $21 a share.
Average the four scenarios, we get $9 a share. You can play with these, but it's easy to see why some folks would buy below $6-$7 without knowing which scenario we're in. Of course when we find out which scenario applies, the opportunity will be gone, the stock will cost $0 or $11 or whatever.
Same old load of horse doo doo we got from that con man on Iraq. North Korea is a tiny country on the other side of the world. They could possibly hit Japan with their few #$%$ 1940s-era missiles, in which case Japan would freaking flatten them without any help from us.
Substantial writeoffs are expected in Q1, sure.
But I see some folks hoping that means the company is going out of business. Just be careful out there folks. That sort of super-enthusiastic take on news (like cheering when the first LOTTO number pops up) isn't always the best attitude for survival in the market.
Yeah. We could move closer to a world where you list small stock trades on E-Bay. Probably not very appealing I guess.