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Stadion Tactical Growth I Message Board

astuteinvestor1 16 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 19, 2015 4:25 PM Member since: Jul 6, 2014
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  • astuteinvestor1 by astuteinvestor1 Jun 29, 2015 4:25 PM Flag

    Can you say dilution? I knew you could....

  • Reply to

    Dilution

    by astuteinvestor1 Jun 29, 2015 4:25 PM
    astuteinvestor1 astuteinvestor1 Jun 29, 2015 5:16 PM Flag

    I guess raising equity capital when the stock was north of $2.00 would have been a bad idea. My mistake.

  • Reply to

    Buyers of new offering at .87

    by biotia Jun 30, 2015 9:42 AM
    astuteinvestor1 astuteinvestor1 Jun 30, 2015 11:37 AM Flag

    "They are buying in at .87 and warrants at over a buck and people are selling in the .70's? That makes no sense at all. I just saw 100k trade at under.75. Who would do that???"

    It's simple arbitrage. Investors can purchase a unit at $0.87 which consists of one share of ETRM plus a Series A warrant to purchase 1/2 a share of ETRM at $1.00 plus a Series B warrant to purchase 1/2 share of ETRM at $1.09. The Series A warrants expire in 42 months (I assumed 12/30/18) and the Series B warrants expire in 12 months (I assumed 6/30/16).

    Using a Black-Scholes valuation model, the implied value of the Series A and Series B warrant is approximately $0.26 per unit, with a volatility assumption of 100%. Subtract the $0.26 from the offering price implies a value for the stock portion of the unit of $0.61. That's why some investors were selling ETRM shares in the 0.70s.

  • Reply to

    Bullish case

    by harnath09 Jun 30, 2015 11:02 AM
    astuteinvestor1 astuteinvestor1 Jun 30, 2015 12:32 PM Flag

    If I were part of management, I would have raised $1 billion. Dilution as well as cost of capital is meaningless.

  • Reply to

    What the massive dillution signals....

    by gocougs0624 Jul 1, 2015 9:17 AM
    astuteinvestor1 astuteinvestor1 Jul 1, 2015 9:38 AM Flag

    Confirmation bias?

  • astuteinvestor1 astuteinvestor1 Jul 1, 2015 7:40 PM Flag

    "again, if you were a wall street capitalist, would you buy shares for 87 cents
    when you can buy millions off the street for .59 and less?"

    I assume your "financial education" does not include options valuation including Black-Scholes. The company is selling UNITS which are comprised of 1 share of stock, 0.5 Series A Warrant and 0.5 Series B Warrant. Stock currently trading at $0.60 while the theoretical value of the Series A Warrant and Series B Warrant are approximately, $0.36 and $0.14, respectively. $0.60 + (0.5 * $0.36) + (0.5 * $0.14) = $0.85.

    Maybe you should change your avatar from sillyoldqueen to DUMBASAPOST.

  • Reply to

    $.55

    by acr_1960 Jul 1, 2015 5:54 PM
    astuteinvestor1 astuteinvestor1 Jul 2, 2015 12:49 PM Flag

    It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.

  • Reply to

    I am down 43,000!!!

    by lobsterpot1989 Jul 2, 2015 12:47 PM
    astuteinvestor1 astuteinvestor1 Jul 2, 2015 1:30 PM Flag

    Your question begets multiple questions. Understand your frustration, but you need to put your emotions aside. While hindsight is always 20-20, the primary question in my mind is whether this problem is the result of either (1) a significant fundamental change in your original investment thesis (management, product, competition, etc.) or (2) ineffective risk management, or a combination of both.

    I think ETRM is an interesting company, but I knew when I made my initial investment (August 2013 @ $1.03) that it was HIGHLY SPECULATIVE. I place a huge premium on risk mitigation when it comes to portfolio management. I size all of my positions based on my level of conviction (upside vs. downside) and then beta-weight them. With a beta of 3.0, my original 20,000 share position is in reality, 60,000 shares. In addition, I used options, selling puts and covered calls, as a partial hedge and to lower my effective cost which currently stands at $0.75 / share. At the time of my investment, I viewed my maximum upside #$%$00 with a downside of $0.00 and mean expected value of $2.00. At the end of the day, I was willing to risk $15,000 to make $40,000 with maximum upside of $100,000 over a 2-3 year time horizon.

    It sounds like this was more of a risk management problem for you. You thought you were originally risking "X" when you bought your shares, but in reality it's "3X" on a beta-adjusted basis. It's a moot issue at this point. The real question that remains is whether you believe that there has been a fundamental change in your original investment thesis. If so, sell it and move on. If not, it's certainly cheaper today than it was a week ago.

    GL

  • Reply to

    Damage Control

    by sguceri Jul 7, 2015 9:29 AM
    astuteinvestor1 astuteinvestor1 Jul 7, 2015 9:37 AM Flag

    Your points are well taken. Unfortunately, the management team is trying its best to emulate the keystone cops. Their "financial advisers" don't appear to be much better.

    The company looks to raise $35 million in capital and then pulls the offering, albeit due to pressure from the Nasdaq. A few days later they look to raise $16 million of capital. What happened???? The near-term capital needs of the company suddenly got reduced by 50% over the past week. Just another #$%$ moment.

  • astuteinvestor1 by astuteinvestor1 Jul 7, 2015 12:38 PM Flag

    At a unit price of $0.50, the implied value of a share of ETRM is $0.18, with the Series A. Warrant having a FMV of $0.32. Therefore, a number of the buyers of the unit offering are likely shorting shares of ETRM as a hedge. At a stock price of $0.32, the implied value of a share of ETRM is also $0.32, with the Series A Warrant having a FMV of $0.18.

  • Reply to

    PURE GIFT UNDER 114

    by biospeculator20l4 Aug 4, 2015 10:51 AM
    astuteinvestor1 astuteinvestor1 Aug 4, 2015 2:22 PM Flag

    You meant to write under $106...

  • Reply to

    oozhe

    by pharmaapproved Aug 4, 2015 2:46 PM
    astuteinvestor1 astuteinvestor1 Aug 5, 2015 5:50 PM Flag

    Stop overstating your importance. Professionals on the buyside do NOT make their investment decisions based on the stock recommendations from the sellside. Analysts on the sellside are strictly used for general industry / macro information and / or access to management.

  • Reply to

    Unmitigated Disaster

    by deuxtrends Aug 6, 2015 7:18 AM
    astuteinvestor1 astuteinvestor1 Aug 6, 2015 7:24 AM Flag

    The median revenue estimate for the quarter was $50,000.

  • Reply to

    Cc

    by joselimpynunez Aug 6, 2015 11:28 AM
    astuteinvestor1 astuteinvestor1 Aug 6, 2015 11:37 AM Flag

    Number of procedures completed during the quarter is somehow a state secret. It's easy to back into this number, but it's strange why management is reluctant to provide this data point.

  • Reply to

    I just doubled down...

    by springer97me Aug 17, 2015 11:02 AM
    astuteinvestor1 astuteinvestor1 Aug 17, 2015 12:54 PM Flag

    Gutsiest move I ever saw man.......

  • Reply to

    When is reverse split?

    by basherxxxxxx Aug 19, 2015 4:04 PM
    astuteinvestor1 astuteinvestor1 Aug 19, 2015 4:25 PM Flag

    Your question is irrelevant. Stock splits and reverse stock splits have no direct impact on the value of the shares held by the investors in the company or the company's market capitalization.

    $0.25 x 10,000 shares = $2,500.00

    Assume a 10-1 reverse stock split:

    $2.50 x 1,000 - $2,500.00

    Yes, there could be some "signaling effect" (good or bad) going forward, but the long-term impact should be negligible. The success or failure of ETRM going forward will not be as a result of any reverse stock split.

ETFOX
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