Something that Antasia said started me thinking...
What if the silly little short is really a wannabe investor?
Perhaps he was lurking here, with an open order to buy before the October run up, and his price target was never met.
Perhaps, he isn't standing in front of the train.
Perhaps, he is standing nearby, pissing on the tracks, and
Hoping the train will slow down long enough for him to hop on board.
With Disney about to unleash a enormous marketing campaign for Pixar's next film, it is obvious why the shorts are scared...
Pixar has a history of releasing blockbuster films: Toy Story, Toy Story 2, and Bug's Life
Quality family films and an enormous marketing campaign
Perhaps we will see the stock soar a bit higher than usual
Walt, I see the next month and a half happening as follows:
Hundreds of articles will be written about the makers of Monsters Inc.
Dozens of positive reviews will be posted in the daily rags.
As toys and other products flood the stores the commercials will begin.
By that time we will see heavy resistance as everyone who thinks $50 is the top bails.
Once all the weak hands are gone the stock will be free to rise to $60
By November 2nd the stock will reach new highs
On November 5th the shorts will show up and the stock will ride back into the $50's
(The only thing that could stop the free fall from record highs would be a stock split.)
There you have it. Short term high $60. Long term trading $40 - $45.
To complete your research you might try attending a shareholder's meeting
They often show a few segments from their latest film
Of course, you have to own at least one share to get invited
Of course, one should always research before one buys or sells
Otherwise you may miss a golden opportunity
My recommendation, look through all press releases about Pixar then
Make up your own mind as to whether you buy or sell.
Okay, okay, I give.
I first heard that the 2000 reports were being mailed in mid-September of 2000 and I received my copy of it on October 8th. The annual meeting was a few weeks later. (FYI. It is normally approx. 30 days after the first report is mailed).
Yes, in prior years the report was mailed much earlier, but then Pixar changed its end of year calendar for accounting purposes and with it the date of their annual report.
Someone here claimed that investor relations told him that the report was in the mail. That same person has posted other misleading information. For what purpose, I do not know, but it does make you think twice about listening to them.
The report will be here in the essence of time.
Just like the higher stock price that the longs keep talking about.
It is going to happen, just wait and see.
Probably because we don't expect Pepsi to send either Pixar or Disney a bill for their ads.
You see, in a cross promotion, companies like Kraft and Pepsi use the Monster tie in to promote their products so they pay the advertising fees. That is what the excitement is all about. Big, costly, ads for Pixar's next film but Pixar isn't picking up the tab.
On the other hand, whatever money Disney spends on ads that advertise the film will effect the bottom line. This is how it is and how it has always been. (nothing to worry about)
Disney's biggest marketing / cross-promo is a very positive thing and it is going to bring a lot of attention to a very solid company (PIXR).
Try to relax and enjoy the ride.
To $50 and Beyond $$$$$
Hopefully, it happens without too many more down days like today
wjm1, did you receive a report last year?
Pehaps you should take a look at the postal stamp on it to get a better idea of when this year's report will arrive.
I believe that the person who claimed the report was on its way is the same person who claimed that they saw a new trailer for Monster's Inc. (That person has a lot of day dreams so you need to do your own research.)
If you can't find the package to look at the stamp then perhaps you might be able to remember which month or quarter you received the report. (I have a feeling that we're a few months early).
Dollar cost averaging is one of the best ways to purchase a stock like this. It allows you to get in, get in slowly, and gives you a chance to buy in at an average price instead of a high.
As we approach the movie release it is likely that we will see some wild swings in the stock price.
I'm guessing that the first time the Monster's Incorporated ads start showing on television we will see the first real spike of the year.
Then as the money investment magazines start to talk about the potential of the movie (and Pixar's track record for generating and holding on to cash) we will see the next spike
Between now and the movie release (Halloween week) the world will be covered with merchandise reminding us that Pixar and Disney have created another movie. This is going to raise consumer awareness. When they look at Pixar they will find a company that is generating profits while most are failing to. When they look at Pixar they will find a company that is focused on family values and create products for the family.
As I've said before, investors are going to learn a good story about a bay area company ran by one of the most famous CEOs in the world.
Nothing like watching minute to minute movements on a low volume day, eh?
Fortunately, time is on the advantage of the long-term investors.
Pepsi, Kraft and others are preparing to spend a fortune on advertising.
Walt, were did you get the following from:
"THIS WEEK, NEW TRAILER"
Can iworkatpixar or imakecartoons verify.
Does Pixar have another trailer?
Seems we've heard this story before.
What was it? Calamity and The Princess Diaries.
You are right, Pixar is a growth company at a time when other companies are stumbling
I'm glad that you recommended that I short Oracle
It is hard to believe that so few technology companies can hold up to Pixar
One more classic quote from the last earnings report.
by irdd3000: - int'l tv
selling broadcast rights to international tv was clearly the big news of the cc. A projected 10-15% of box office adds up to a nice chunk of change, which is of course all profits at this point. pixar does seem to have some sway over disney in this regard.
Yet another classic quote from the last earnings report.
(Sorry I'm tired of the political BS)
by: SirToppamHatt - Upbeat CC
There were no surprise announcements, but what there was was really good. I think that the marketing campaign will make it clear what kind of film Monsters is. Steve, wanted to differentiate between MI and HP and make it clear that viewers need not make a choice between the two. This was a good point to make. The two basic questions analysts and investors have regarding Monsters are: 1) is it as good or better than past Pixar films, and 2) will the competition, HP et al, hurt the box office? Steve preemptively answered those questions: It's great and there's not a fundamental conflict with Harry P.
Have fun stormin' the castle,
Another classic quote from the last earnings report:
by: strt716 - Here we are again
but things are different.
Earnings expectations are trounced, (Ann had good hair day.), and the anticipation of a new blockbuster is building, and thus and therefore the price of PIXR stock is rising. Same old, same old?
Can there really be anybody out there left to be duped on the predictable movie cycle? Well, yes, there are a lot of people still new to the story. (I bet there will even be some repeat offenders.) But there is a difference...
Pixar has certainly reached an entirely differenct stage of development as a company. The campus and the huge cash position move PIXR out of the speculative and into a lower risk investment. The dismantling of Disney's animation unit even strengthen's the Pixar story further.
Children will continue to be born and they will continue to love being dazzled by color and story. (This is a reminder that PIXR is a no-brainer long term.)
The price will run-up. Sometime between now and October PIXR will have a $50.00 price...anyone want to bet? But the question is, will we come down? The shorts have set their trap...but will the insiders comply this time?
I think the story of the stock might end up being more interesting than the plot of Monsters Inc.
Use the wand.
Classic quotes from the last earnings report:
by: love17201 - A recipe for success
I haven't really been following the earnings picture as closely as I had in the past. It really all depends upon when Disney pays Pixar, so it's really just a guessing game.
But something in the call really caught my attention - the 'Classic Treasures' - which I don't think have been factored into Pixar's guidance for this year's earnings. If the below sales are successful, Pixar could earn up to $1.00/share this year. Here are the relevant quotes from Ann Mather:
"Walt Disney Television International will be marketing a 'Classic Treasures' package. . . The package includes broadcast rights to our three feature films, TS, TS2 and ABL, along with 2 other Walt Disney classic pictures. The titles are being marketed, but deals have not yet been finalized. The potential license fees from international network television distribution could range from 10-15% of the films' international box office receipts. This amount represents film revenue that would be split between Pixar and Disney on a 50/50 after a deduction of associated distribution costs and fees.[Later in the call Ann responded to an analyst's question] There haven't been any sales made yet, but when the sales are made it is possible for us to recognize revenue as soon as the titles are available for distribution, which is pretty much immediately, so we could expect to see some revenues in this fiscal year."
I've decided to play the earnings game since the time is near.
Like the rest of you I expect Pixar to meet earnings, yet I don't think that it is guaranteed that they will beat earnings.
My reasoning: According to the yahoo research page Pixar's head count now stands at 581 employees. From what I recall, this is a ten to twenty percent increase in head count over last year. This increase in head count may be great news for those hoping that Pixar will increase their production schedule, but additional heads cost money therefore reducing Pixar's ability to beat their numbers. Hopefully the cost of the additional employees will be worth it and Pixar will soon be able to announce plans for releasing one movie per year.
Okay, I'm ready to play the opening week game.
First, this entire year Pixar has waited until the second month after the end of the quarter to release earnings. If they release earnings in October instead of November then this will be a sign "the big boys want to dump shares before the movie releases". If that happens then dump all of your short-term shares on the morning of the earnings release and buy back on the Friday after.
Second, anyone who is buying now should be able to see a 25% percent gain between now and the movie release. Once the Disney Marketing Blitz begins $50 should be a lock and higher should be possible. Those who have been burned in the past should sell at $50. Don't get too greedy and you should come out ahead.
Third, Buzz78 is right, the shorts will sell millions of shares the week after the movie release. You too should consider dumping all of your short-term shares (anything you aren't planning to go really long with). The only thing that could stop the inevitable drop is an October announcement that the shares are going to split in December. (That will never happen.. regardless, Pixar is already priced at half of Apple, Intel, Sun, JDSU, Lucent, and other affordable stocks.)
Fourth, if you sell off you short-term shares then be smart and wait a few months to buy back. The hype should wear off by the end of the year.
Don't worry, be happy
Didn't Jobs tell you that the schedule was moved up so you should adjust your charts?
There's still plenty of room for growth. So you only get a 25% gain
Smile and take what you can get
Someone here was asking about this so I did a little research.
In many cases it is easier to exercise and do a same day sale than to sell the contracts. Buyers appear to be low-balling some of the in-the-money contracts. It may also be possible to short shares and then exercise your contracts to cover the shorted shares.
I'm currently using eTrade, and have a substantial portfolio for margining, so I found that both of these options are possible.
By the way, the closer we get to an option expiration date the more downward pressure we will see and the more crap you will see posted here. You might want to consider making your moves this week while things are still healthy.