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VIVUS Inc. Message Board

atlnsider 3002 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 17, 2014 4:38 PM Member since: Dec 6, 2003
  • Reply to

    ATLINSIDER

    by hopedoesntcount Nov 15, 2014 2:25 PM
    atlnsider atlnsider Nov 17, 2014 4:38 PM Flag

    There is really nothing to say until there is definitive proof that Adasuve sales are ramping up in the US & the EU. I still believe in the long-term prospects for Alexza & Adasuve, but the rate of progress is a lot slower than expected.

    The Q2 & Q3 results were significantly less than what was expected by Alexza, Teva, Ferrer & me. It is taking longer to get Adasuve in hospitals & to get doctors to use Adasuve to treat their patients.

    In the near-term & short-term, I will be focused on other investment opportunities. I will re-focus on Alexza at some point in 2015.

  • Reply to

    A cautionary tale

    by rationalthought11 Nov 11, 2014 1:41 PM
    atlnsider atlnsider Nov 11, 2014 1:53 PM Flag

    One big difference is DNDN has $600,000,000 ($600 Million) in long-term debt, but NWBO has $0 ($Zero) in long-term debt. That's the biggest reason DNDN had to file for bankruptcy.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • There is a little dilution, but overall it looks like a good deal for Alexza. Ferrer is confirming its belief in ADASUVE, and confirming its commitment to ADASUVE.

    This deal does provide Alexza with some more cash to help fund the development of AZ-002 (Staccato alprazolam) and AZ-008 & AZ-009 (Staccato ropinirole).

    Hopefully, the Staccato alpraolam will be starting any day now. Alexza is still saying 2H of 2014, and we only have about 9 weeks remaining in 2014.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    wow office looks dead

    by cancerfighter2011 Oct 14, 2014 1:10 AM
    atlnsider atlnsider Oct 16, 2014 10:19 AM Flag

    Don't forget that Alexza only reported on the Teva progress in the US, and they only released the number of ADASUVE units shipped to Teva during Q3. Alexza did not announce the number of ADASUVE units shipped to Grupo Ferrer during Q3.

    I expect that Alexza will announce the Ferrer ADASUVE numbers during the Q3 earnings release on November 5th. I don't know how strong the Ferrer numbers will be, and they have been disappointing the last 3 quarters. I hope that with the launch in France, the Ferrer numbers will start to trend the Ferrer ADASUVE units back up.

    Also, don't forget that in order for Alexza to ship ADASUVE units to Teva in Q1 2015, Alexza will have to manufacture some of these units during Q4 2014.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • atlnsider atlnsider Oct 4, 2014 12:20 PM Flag

    I agree with you. I spoke with Alexza IR and they are still saying that the Staccato alprazolam (AZ-002) clinical trial is imminent & will be starting any day now.

  • atlnsider atlnsider Oct 2, 2014 7:41 PM Flag

    I have not seen what the reimbursement rate will be in France. I don't believe that it has been disclosed yet. But, based on my research, it looks like it will be somewhere between 35% & 65%.

    As you know, Adasuve will only be sold directly to hospitals & other healthcare facilities in France. Adasuve will not be sold directly to consumers or patients. When a patient presents to the emergency room or to the hospital with acute agitation due to schizophrenia or bipolar I disorder, the doctor or other healthcare provider will decide whether or not to treat the patient with Adasuve.

    If the doctor does decide to treat a patient with Adasuve, then the French national health insurance will pay whatever the national reimbursement rate is for Adasuve, and then the patient will be responsible for the difference.

  • atlnsider atlnsider Oct 2, 2014 6:51 PM Flag

    I am still here, but I am also disappointed with the performance of Alexza's share price since August 7th.

    It is taking more time & effort to educate & inform doctors & other healthcare providers about the advantages & effectiveness of Adasuve.

  • atlnsider atlnsider Oct 2, 2014 6:47 PM Flag

    Although the Adasuve launch in France is good news, I am not as concerned about whats happening in the EU with Adasuve, as I am about what's happening in the US with Adasuve. I also have more confidence in Teva than I do in Grupo Ferrer.

    The US market is the most valuable market for Adasuve and for Alexza. I am waiting until I see more definitive proof that Adasuve sales in the US are starting to increase & gain more traction in the US. This will take more time to determine. Alexza will release some Q3 Adasuve shipment numbers in November, but it could take several more quarters before we see the kind of proof that I am looking for.

    My sentiment could also change if: Alexza were to announce new Adasuve licensing agreements with other countries, like: Canada, China, India, Japan, Australia, the Middle East or North Africa; or if Alexza were to announce new Staccato pipeline products with a large addressable market.

  • I tweeted the link @ATLnsider.

    It looks like the ADASUVE launch in France by Bioprojet Pharma is starting.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    where is atlinsider

    by cheating_stock_invester Sep 10, 2014 4:45 PM
    atlnsider atlnsider Sep 10, 2014 10:08 PM Flag

    I am still here, and I am still holding most of my ALXA shares. However, I am continually evaluating whether or not I will sell my ALXA shares or hold onto my ALXA shares. It will depend on current facts, and if there is clear evidence that Adasuve sales are starting to gain some significant traction, especially in the US.

    I usually only post when I find or discover some new information about Alexza, Adasuve, the Staccato system, and the Staccato pipeline. I have not seen any new information in past few days.

    I will not try to convince anyone to buy ALXA shares or continue to hold their ALXA shares. Each individual investor should make their own personal investment decision based upon their own research & due diligence, their tolerance for risk, and their time horizon. There are risks and nothing is guaranteed.

    I say again that Alexza is not an investment for everyone. It's only for patient investors, with a long-term view, who really believe that: Adasuve will be successful & gain sales traction in the US, the Ferrer territories & the rest of the world. Alexza investors should also believe that the current Alexza senior management team is smart & capable enough to develop and execute an overall strategic & operational plan.

    I too was disappointed with Alexza's Q2 financial results, and the number of Adasuve units shipped to Grupo Ferrer in particular. Adasuve sales uptake in the EU & the rest of the Ferrer territories is slower than anticipated. It appears that the Adasuve commercial sales uptake curve will not be as steep & will be more gradual.

    Adasuve Q2 sales results in the US were stronger than the results in the Ferrer territories. The number of units shipped to Teva increased from 18,788 units in Q1 to 23,031 units in Q2. This was an increase of about 23%.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • I tweeted the link @ATLnsider

    Teva is systematically getting the word out about Adasuve, and they are gradually increasing awareness of Adasuve step-by-step in the US. Because Adasuve is a new & novel technology, this is a necessary and important step in Teva's commercial sales efforts in the US.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    why to buy ALXA ASAP per the street

    by sawsbaws1 Aug 20, 2014 7:20 AM
    atlnsider atlnsider Aug 20, 2014 10:56 AM Flag

    Thanks sawsbaws1!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Adasuve is making good progress

    by todzun Aug 8, 2014 11:25 AM
    atlnsider atlnsider Aug 8, 2014 12:52 PM Flag

    No; I can not provide a scenario where Alexza reaches break-even in the next 12 months. There are risks and nothing is guaranteed.

    I believe that Alexza has previously guided that they don't believe that they will reach break-even until 2016.

    I do hope that Adasuve sales in the US, and throughout the Ferrer territories will increase significantly quarter-over-quarter. I am disappointed that the trend in the Ferrer territories has been a decrease in the number of Adasuve units shipped quarter-over-quarter since Q3 2013 despite Ferrer launching Adasuve in more countries (Romania, Spain, Sweden, Norway, Finland, etc.).

    I, personally have more confidence in Teva than I do in Ferrer. Teva has a lot more resources and a lot more experience than Ferrer has. I believe that the Adasuve sales in the US will continue to increase at a much steeper rate than they will in the Ferrer territories.

    My hope then is, after Teva realizes success in the US, Teva will be more inclined to purchase the Adasuve rights to other countries, like: Australia, Canada, India, Japan, China, South Korea, the Middle East & North Africa. This will provide Alexa with more upfront cash payment, milestone payments, and ongoing royalty payments.

    In addition, if Teva is successful in making Adasuve a commercial success in the US, then I believe Teva will be more inclined to purchase the worldwide rights to AZ-008 & AZ-009 (Staccato Ropinirole) to treat RLS & Parkinson Disease. Ropinirole is a drug compound that Teva is already producing, and it has a lot of experience selling.

    But, this is hope & speculations. Plus, it all hinges on whether or not Adasuve will be a commercial success in the US.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Adasuve is making good progress

    by todzun Aug 8, 2014 11:25 AM
    atlnsider atlnsider Aug 8, 2014 12:05 PM Flag

    I agree!

    The ALXA downgrade & price target decrease by Roth Capital has hurt the stock price today. Alexza did beat Q2 EPS consensus estimates, but revenues missed significantly. The Street & the market in general were disappointed with the top-line (revenue) numbers for Q2. The primary reason that Alexza beat the the EPS estimates was due to re-valuing the Symphony Allegro contingent liability.

    Adasuve sales uptake in the EU & the rest of the Ferrer territories is slower than anticipated. Alexza & Ferrer have to contend with several different SKUs & languages throughout the Ferrer territories. It looks like Adasuve will be launched in France later this year, but the UK probably won't be launched until 2015 or even 2016. It appears that the Adasuve commercial sales uptake curve will not be as steep & will be more gradual.

    Adasuve Q2 sales results in the US were stronger than the results in the Ferrer territories. The number of units shipped to Teva increased from 18,788 units to 23,031 units. This was an increase of about 23%. Teva only has to deal with 1 language (English) & 1 SKU in the US. Teva has been very successful getting Adasuve on formularies around the US.

    Now Teva is focused on getting doctors, nurses & other healthcare providers educated about Adasuve. Adasuve is a novel new technology, and doctors need to be made aware of its ease of use, faster onset, and its other advantages. This process will take time. Q2 2014 was the 1st full quarter of commercial Adasuve sales in the US. Teva has significantly more resources & commercial sales experience than Ferrer has. I believe that it is more likely that Adasuve sales will rise significantly faster in the US than they will in the Ferrer territories.

    But, I say again that Alexza is not an investment for everyone. It's only for patient investors, with a long-term view, who believe that: Adasuve will be successful & gain sales traction in the US, the Ferrer territories & the rest of the world.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I tweeted the link @ATLnsider

    This should bode well for future licensing & partnership agreements between Alexza & Teva. Alexza is maknig sure that its pipeline is very compatible with Teva's neurological & CNS product lines. Teva has decades of experience & dozens of drug compounds that are used to treat patients diagnosed with: Bipolar Disorder, Schizophrenia, Parkinson's Disease (PD), and Restless Leg Syndrome (RLS).

    I do not believe that this is a coincident that Alexza's pipeline is so well-aligned with Teva's product line & Teva's strengths.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    where's atl

    by cheating_stock_invester Jul 24, 2014 11:33 AM
    atlnsider atlnsider Jul 24, 2014 1:13 PM Flag

    I am still here. I am not going anywhere any time soon.

    I posted over the weekend under the message post "Hey ATLnsider", in response to the blog comments that were posted on The Motley Fool by zzlangerhans, but otherwise, I am content to wait & see what is disclosed during Alexza's Q2 earnings release & conference call on August 7th.

    Also, I have been communicating with Alexza IR regarding some questions & clarifications I had in connection with the Staccato System pipeline, but I have not learned anything new or significant thus far..

    I am always looking at other investment opportunities, but I haven't pulled the trigger on anything new lately. But, I will always continue to monitor the market for other opportunities. I wish I had owned of few shares of PBYI (Puma Biotechnology) before this week.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Hey ATLnsider

    by jab2478 Jul 19, 2014 4:54 PM
    atlnsider atlnsider Jul 20, 2014 12:27 AM Flag

    If Tony Friedman is the same as zzlangerhans, and he posted the blog comments on The Motley Fool website, then I am not concerned about his comments. I did read his comments, and I posted a response to his comments on The Motley Fool.

    I tweeted a link to my response @ATLnsider.

    However, the bottom line is; he does not believe that ER physicians, nurses, psychiatrists, and other healthcare providers will use Adasuve to treat bipolar & schizophrenic patients who are suffering from acute agitation. He believes that doctors will prefer to "tackle, restrain & forcibly inject patients". He is entitled to his opinion, but he had no facts to back up his opinion.

    He also believe that when Alexza report Q2 financial results on August 7th, the results will be disappointing. Again, he is entitled to his opinion. I do not know what Alexza will report on August 7th, but I believe & hope that the number of Adasuve units shipped to Teva & Grupo Ferrer will be significantly higher than what was reported for Q1.

    I am not looking for Alexza to report blockbuster numbers for Q2, but I am looking for a significant increase in Adasuve units shipped quarter-over-quarter.

    Investing is not an exact science, and it is not easy. If an investor does not believe that Adasuve will be a commercial success, then that investor should not invest in Alexza. The Q2 financial results will give all of us an indication of whether or not Adasuve sales are headed in the right direction.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • atlnsider atlnsider Jul 16, 2014 5:57 PM Flag

    The only recent news I've seen is the fact that Teva has started the clinical trials to test the safety & efficacy of ADASUVE treating adolescents children between the ages of 10 to 17. Also, Alexza has started the same clinical trials in the EU. If the trials are successful, and if the safety & efficacy data supports it, the ADASUVE approved labels in the US & the Eu could be expanded to include treating adolescent children.

    However, this news may not be the primary reason for the recent uptrend. It look like a large institutional investor has been accumulating shares over the past few days.

    In addition, I am expecting Alexza to start the AZ-002 Phase 2 clinical trials any day now. I am also expecting Alexza to release Q2 numbers for ADASUVE units shipped to Teva & Grupo Ferrer. I hope that the Q2 numbers will show a significant increase from Q1.

    The only reasons you should double down on ALXA are:

    1. You have done your own extensive research & due diligence on Alexza & its Staccato system platform, and you believe in the fundamentals.

    2. You believe that Teva will do a good job commercializing ADASUVE in the US, and ADASUVE sales in the US will meet or exceed guidance.

    3. You believe in the long-term prospects of ADASUVE in the US & the EU, and the rest of the Grupo Ferrer territory.

    4. You believe that Alexza will be successful in globalizing ADASUVE sales in additional countries like: Canada, Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea, the Middle East, and North Africa.

    5. You believe in the long-term prospects of Alexza's Staccato System platform, and Alexza's ability to successfully develop more drugs, like: Staccato alprazolam, Staccato fentanyl, etc.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    How goes it Chumps??!! Tired yet?

    by kingscatss Jul 15, 2014 1:09 PM
    atlnsider atlnsider Jul 16, 2014 2:32 PM Flag

    Not really excited by day-to-day fluctuations in Alexza's stock price. Whether the stock price goes up or down. I am still waiting for at least 3X the current stock price.

    I am still waiting for ALXA to hit my target price of $16.28 per share and higher. The $16.28 target is just for ADASUVE in the US & the Grupo Ferre territories. It does not include ADASUVE sales in other territories like: Canada, China, India, Japan, Austrailia, Indonesia, Taiwan, Malaysia, the Middle East & North Africa.

    Nor does my target price of $16.28 include any other Staccato based drugs like Staccato alprazolam, Staccato fentanyl, etc.

    You are the one who gets really excited when Alexza's share price goes down, or it does not move much. I am very patient & I will wait to see where this goes...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    How goes it Chumps??!! Tired yet?

    by kingscatss Jul 15, 2014 1:09 PM
    atlnsider atlnsider Jul 16, 2014 1:58 PM Flag

    Has anyone seen Kittycatss?

    Please keep him away from tall buildings & sharp objects!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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