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VIVUS Inc. Message Board

atlnsider 2897 posts  |  Last Activity: 13 hours ago Member since: Dec 6, 2003
  • atlnsider atlnsider 13 hours ago Flag

    augostotheruller ;

    It's apparent that you are frustrated & impatient. Especially, after the market correction during the past few weeks, that has impacted most large cap & small cap biotech & pharmaceutical companies.

    I have never predicted that ALXA's stock price would be $16 by now. My valuation of ALXA after the Teva deal was done, did show that ALXA share price to be worth at least $16 per share. I stand by my ALXA valuation analysis, but no one can tell you when exactly when the market will reflect an ALXA stock value close to $16 per share. In fact, after I accurately predicted that ADASUVE would be priced at $145 per dose instead of $75 per dose, my valuation for ALXA shares will now be a lot higher than $16 per share. But, it all depends on ADASUVE sales in the US.

    You should go back and read all of my articles & message posts. I cautioned that anyone who buys ALXA shares should be patient & have a long-term time horizon of at least 6 to 12 months. The market & most investors are waiting for Alexza & Teva to definitively show that ADASUVE has gained some commercial sales traction in the US, and ADASUVE does have a chance to meet or exceed the sales guidance that Alexza & Teva are projecting.

    ADASUVE was just launched in the US on March 3rd. That's only been about 6 weeks. It would be foolish for anyone to say that ALXA stock price would reflect its full value 6 weeks after ADASUVE had been launched in the US.

    I will continue to track & monitor the progress that Teva is making lining up both public & private health insurers to help patients cover the cost of ADASUVE. Teva was successful at getting Medicare & Medicaid coverage for ADASUVE, and now it's focusing on private health insurers. This is a very important to me, and I will continue to track it. This will be a very good barometer for gauging the probability of ADASUVE being a commercial success in the US.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I tweeted the link @ATLnsider

    Blue Cross Blue Shield of Texas is the largest health insurer in the state of Texas. Their healthcare provider network include 451 hospitals, and over 38,000 doctors throughout the state of Texas.

    This is another plus for Teva & ADASUVE

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • atlnsider atlnsider Apr 15, 2014 1:54 PM Flag

    Regardless of what you say, I will continue to post facts that I find out about Alexza, ADASUVE, Teva and the Staccato System platform.

    No one should buy any ALXA shares solely based upon what I say, or based upon what my opinions of ALXA are. Everyone should do their own due diligence & research.

    You are free to sell your ALXA shares at any time. I will not try to stop you from selling your ALXA shares.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I tweeted the link @ATLnsider

    Teva continues to build nationwide coverage for ADASUVE "brick by brick". This will make it easier for enrolled healthcare facilities to prescribe & use ADASUVE for patients being treated for acute agitation.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I tweeted the link @ATLnsider

    Teva continues to add more and more health insurers nationwide, to help patients cover the cost of ADASUVE. This includes nationwide coverage from Medicare & Medicaid.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • atlnsider atlnsider Apr 14, 2014 5:43 PM Flag

    Nah; I am going to continue doing my personal due diligence & research on Alexza, ADASUVE, Teva & the Staccato System platform.

    I know that you may be frustrated & disappointed with the recent price decline in ALXA shares. But, I try not to get to focused on the day-to-day fluctuations in ALXA share price, whether the price is up or down. I will continue to do my research to make sure that Alexza, Teva & Grupo Ferrer are all continuing to successfully execute their business & strategic plans.

    You don't have to read any of my message posts, and you don't have to agree with any of my opinions. You are free to sell all of your ALXA shares at any time...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I tweeted the link @ATLnsider

    Teva is doing a very job of signing up health insurance companies across America. This should help patients nationwide cover the cost of ADASUVE treatments.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I tweeted the link @ATLnsider

    More & more health insurance payers are covering the cost of ADASUVE. Teva is doing a very good job of lining up coverage for ADASUVE across the USA.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I tweeted the link @ATLnsider

    Teva continues to make great progress in getting health insurers lined up to help patients cover the cost of ADASUVE. This should translate into more ADASUVE sales during 2014.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I tweeted the link @ATLnsider

    Fidelis SecureCare is located in Michigan & North Carolina. This means that its Members in both states will have access to ADASUVE if needed.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I tweeted the link @ATLnsider

    Teva continues to obtain health insurers payers across the USA to help cover the cost of ADASUVE. This will help make doctors & other healthcare providers more comfortable prescribing & using ADASUVE to treat patients suffering with acute agitation.

    In addition to the efficacy & safety of ADASUVE, having both public & private payers approve ADASUVE for their formulary insures that ADASUVE is also affordable.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • atlnsider atlnsider Apr 10, 2014 2:43 PM Flag

    Bankstond,

    I sold all of my VVUS a long time ago.

    I am buying more ALXA shares, and I will continue to buy shares as long as the price is

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I tweeted the link @ATLnsider

    Teva is doing an excellent job getting health insurers to cover the cost of ADASUVE. This is laying the groundwork for a very successful commercial launch of ADASUVE in the US.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I tweeted the link @ATLnsider

    This position will cover the North metro Atlanta area, and it will focus on Teva Select Brands specialty neuropsych drugs, including ADASUVE.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • atlnsider atlnsider Apr 1, 2014 1:56 PM Flag

    I believe that by Teva putting up to $260 million of its own money, that is a good measure of "faith and confidence.

    But, you can sell your ALXA shares (wink, wink) anytime you are ready. The stock market is open Monday through Friday, excluding holidays. You can pick any day you want to sell your ALXA shares (wink, wink).

    If you believe that reporting facts is "cheerleading", then you are free to believe whatever you believe...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I tweeted the link @ATLnsider

    Teva is putting a lot of faith & confidence in ADASUVE to show that Teva's strategic plan of focusing on new NTE drugs will be a high growth, winning strategy.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I tweeted the link @ATLnsider

    Teva continues to add both public & private health insurance payers who will help US patients cover the cost of ADASUVE. This will help ADASUVE to become a commercial sales success in the US.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • atlnsider atlnsider Mar 25, 2014 5:04 PM Flag

    I try not to focus on the day-to-day price fluctuations in ALXA's stock price, whether the price is up or down. However, it is disappointing that ALXA's stock price has trended down for the past 2 weeks. I believe that MMs & shorts have taken advantage of this down-trend to take out Stop Losses, and they have also been able to force some margin selling at these low price levels.

    I would be more concerned if ALXA was the only biotech stock going down, but it looks like the entire biotech sector has been hit hard the past few trading days. But, I will say that ALXA does seem to get harder than the average biotech stock during times like these.

    There has not been a lot of demand for ALXA shares during the past 6 to 12 months. I think that some investors are waiting to see definitive proof & positive signs that ADASUVE is selling well in the US. A lot of investors do not know about the Alexza, ADASUVE, Staccato & Teva stories. There has not been a huge demand for ALXA shares during the past year, even when the overall biotech sector was strong & doing well. But, I know that as an experienced investor, you can find the best investments when the stock price is low, people are scared & there is not a lot of demand for the shares.

    I continue to trust my research & due diligence. I also have confidence that Teva knows what is it doing, and they have an excellent record launching specialty brand drugs in the US. I have strong conviction & belief in the Staccato System platform.

    I will continue to be patient, and buy & accumulate more ALXA shares at times like these. I will continue to watch & monitor the situation to make sure that Alexza & Teva continue to successfully execute their strategic & business plans. If they do not, then I will change my ALXA investment plans.

    I do understand that some retail investors will not be able to "ride this out", and they may be forced to sell their ALXA shares.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What a great feeling.Back to break even

    by tvmanjon Mar 24, 2014 3:27 PM
    atlnsider atlnsider Mar 25, 2014 10:32 AM Flag

    Their money is not guaranteed. Teva has to sell enough ADASUVE to generate enough royalties & milestone payments for Alexza to cover the interest payments & the $45 million principal amount.

    The $45 million note is non-recourse & is not guaranteed. However, the beauty of the deal is that if & when ADASUVE does sell enough to generate sufficient royalties & trigger the milestone payments to Alexza, this will also propel the ALXA stock price significantly higher. That will be very good for all ALXA shareholders.

    It will be a "win-win" for all ALXA shareholders & for the holder of the $45 million note. Everyone will be "paid"...

    BTW, I bought more ALXA shares & I am still shopping...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • atlnsider atlnsider Mar 21, 2014 12:08 PM Flag

    CSI;

    I do agree that it will take some time (several years) before ADASUVE sales in the US reach peak sales level. But, I disagree that ALXA share price will only reach $6 to $7 per share based on positive ADASUVE sales alone. I believe the share price will be a lot higher based in the near-term on ADASUVE sales alone if the sales data is positive & meet or exceed expectations.

    My peak valuation for ALXA based upon ADASUVE Teva & Grupo Ferrer sales only, was over $16 per share. But, that was based on an ADASUVE unit price of $75 per unit. As you know, the ADASUVE unit price is $145 per share.

    But, I will agree to disagree. The good thing is that we don't have to wait very long to see how this plays out.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

VVUS
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