VIVUS Inc. Message Board

I believe that many investors will get in front of this event before next Friday, and after option expirations at the end of this week. I expect to see an increase in Alexza stock price and trading volume next week.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

moaamar1778,

I will agree to disagree...

The milestone payments that Teva will pay to OGXI ($360 million) are actually higher than the milestone payments that Teva will pay to Alexza ($195 million). I suggest you read the OGXI press release again.

I am content to let this play out, and eventually we will get more details from Alexza and Teva. In the meantime, I will stick with my analysis and you can stick with your analysis.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

Thanks cabogordon!

As an Alexza long, my interest is to get it right. Thus far, I have not seen any indication that the tiered royalty percentage is less than the range I have in my valuation analysis. But again, I will certainly update my analysis if the tiers are lower or higher.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

moaamar1778,

I believe that you are way off. The range of 3% to 7% is only reserved for drugs that are off patent and Teva is licensing to make a generic version .

When you look at a branded, specialty drug that is patent protected at least until 2026, the tieed royalty percentages will be a lot higher.

I suggest that you go back and look at the Teva agreement with OncoGenex Pharmaceuticals (OGXI) that Teva signed in 2009. The tiered royalty percentage range for OGXI drug, OGX-011, was 15% to 25%. However, OGX-011 was in Phase 3 development at the time of the Teva collaboration agreement, and OGX-011 was not approved by the FDA or EMA. In fact, OGX-011 is still not approved by the FDA or EMA. Therefore, the tiered royalty range for ADASUVE US rights should be higher than the range Teva is paying for OGX-011.

I will tweet the link to the Teva collaboration deal with OGXI @ATLnsider.

The advantages that Alexza has with ADASUVE over OGX-011 are:

1. It is patented until at least 2026

2. ADASUVE has been approved by the FDA, so there is no (0) regulatory risks for Teva

3. ADASUVE has been approved by the EMA

4. Teva will start selling ADASUVE in a few weeks, and will start getting a return on its investment in ADASUVE soon

Sentiment: Strong Buy

It depends on how you define "low double digits". Don't forget double digits go all the way to the number 99. Some will say that 18% to 25% is low double digits.

But, I will say that if and when more definitive information comes out about the tiered royalty percentages, I will update my valuation analysis. Until then, I still stand by my current analysis.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

The Russell Microcap Index list will be finalized after the market closes on June 28th, and the first trading day with ALXA in the Russell Microcap index will be July 1st.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

I tweeted the link for the Russell Microcap Index Alexza news @ATLnsider

Sentiment: Strong Buy

I was going to keep adding different values, but you know Twitter only limit you to 144 characters.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

I see it as a good sign. It validates and shows that Teva is aggressively going after companies that will help Teva move to an NTE (New Therapeutic Entity) strategy.

MDTX has an inferior inhalation delivery platform, compared to Alexza's Staccato platform. MDTX does not have any (0) FDA or EMA approved drugs. It will be a while (years) before Teva gets any return on its MDTX investment

Alexza has ADASUVE which has been approved by both the FDA and the EMA. Teva will start selling ADASUVE in a few weeks, and Teva will be getting an almost immediate return on its investment in Alexza.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

It's on theflyonthewall website. Can't post the link on Yahoo, but I did tweet the link @ATLnsider

Sentiment: Strong Buy

You're right Jackfourd, except the actual amount that Scott Henry said was that it could add up to $12 in value per share.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

Thanks for the info pjns316!

Sentiment: Strong Buy

Seeking Alpha just re-published my valuation of Alexza. It hit Yahoo Finance this time under "Headlines".

Sentiment: Strong Buy

Moaamar1778,

pjns316 is right. Alexza is conducting the ADASUVE QT/QTc post-approval study, and if the results are favorable, the ADASUVE label could be modified to allow up to 2 doses of ADASUVE per day instead of only 1 allowed by the current label.

I tweeted the link to this clinical trial yesterday @ATLnsider.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

My valuation article: "Valuing Alexza After The Teva ADASUVE Deal" was published on Benzinga's website this morning.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

I have never looked at APRI. I may get a chance to take a look at it in the near future. I will let you know.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

I do not really expect ALXA stock price to go up significantly today, tomorrow, next week or even next month. But, I do believe that it will eventually go up and it will get a lot closer to the valuation I calculated.

Also, I still believe that other analysts will be upgrading ALXA and they will have updated price targets close to what I came up with.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

moaamar1778,

First, you have to take the percentage of the population that suffer from schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. Then you take the percentage of that population who experiences episodes of acute agitation (90%). Then you have to take the percentage of this subset who "seek treatment" for acute agitation (50%). "Seek treatment" is the key phrase. That means that they go to a health care provider for help because they are suffering from acute agitation.

Most of the patients who are treated for acute agitation, are treated in a hospital emergency room, or in the psychiatric ward of a hospital, or in an in-patient psychiatric facility. It is only the cases of acute agitation that have escalated to the point that the family members, caregivers, or even the police have taken the affected patient in to get treatment for acute agitation are the cases that are counted in the research.

If you look at the first 2 slides, you will see that based upon market research, most patients treated for acute agitation have 11 to 12 episodes per year. My analysis was even more conservative than that, I used 10 episodes per year.

The numbers on the Alexza slides were researched and vetted by both Alexza and Teva. I believe their numbers, and I stand by my valuation analysis.

Sentiment: Strong Buy