To be fair, it looked like the whole market was unraveling and a lot of these funds sell whats up to fund their margin calls or redemptions... If i was a hedgefund start selling something like UBNT on this kind of strength too. It's pretty insane given the beat, the guidance and all the spokes in the UBNT fire. I was expecting to touch the 40 level. 7% up isn't too bad.... although.... We were at 30 two weeks ago before these numbers... this market is treacherous and blind. I doubled down at the lows of day. I was waiting for a strong quarter. I'm all in now!
why? they have downgraded the #$%$ out of his stock and he wants to make em look like fools now... Good on him. Keep under promising, over delivering and the street keeps downgrading, we'll have enough short fuel to beat the russian to the moon!
its because everyone short is trying to value Ubiquiti with traditional business metrics even though they don't have a traditional business model! they are convinced that the profit margins and operating margins will contract because they claim it, like all hardware volume commodity businesses, at the end of the day will face steep price competition and thus the long term profitability deserves a lower premium... Which is insane because the business model is completely difference to those other ones they compare it to! but the street refuses to accept their business model as sustainable and believe one day UBNT will have to throw in the towel and join the other companies... let em bet! make ur own bet!
i like airplanecra8zy's approach.... he's long the stock, but he's rid himself of bullishness... thats the right state of mind! although I hope for the best! i plan for the worst!
The 17 P/E is based on the fact that 40M$ was stolen, given current estimates and guidance, also the demand levels for new products, i think 2$ is achievable even with currency headwins, that puts this sucker at 12.5 P/E with the strongest balance sheets it has had since it's IPO.... I'm buying this with both hands and feet.
Don't over think this, the company is generating 50M$ per quarter and redirecting that to immediate buybacks while the company revamps it's growth strategy. Products are great, Solar is now shipping to US, UNIFI AC is also ramping up shipping, China and South America were week all summer and they had still provided good results, I expect the same. Engagement on the community is at all time highs and the company is making all the right moves. The balance sheet is pristine and a now that interest rates are rising, value investors are going to be looking at companies funding projects and buybacks with cash and not debt. I think 2016 will be a much better than expected year, especially with a roadmap of new products and the government school connectivity grants/contracts kicking in this year. Worst case scenario, Pera takes this private around 40$ which if you average today ain't to bad. Sidelines are for scardypoops... Go long, and go hard buy as much as you can until 25... then go to sleep on the stock for a year. Pera still own 70%. He's longterm, I'm longterm, these dips are no reason to stay on the sideline but to seriously jump in.