I got it from the Q and A at the end of the Q2 CC. Inasmuch as JKS would have made $1.89 in Q3 if it has not been for the exchange rate loss, I think $12 is a low number. If you think JKS will not go from 16-20%2016, then the smart move is to dump JKS and buy TSL.
I think that JKS, TSL and JASO will all have a great year this year. The thing that will give JKS the edge over the other two is that JKS's panels will go from about 16.5% to over 20% sometime in 2016. JKS's margins will go up to 25% to 28%. JKS should make over $12 per share without the IPO. It looks as if JKS may go up 300% to 500% in 2016 instead of the 40% we got in 2015.
I think JKS is the best solar stock to have now. The buyouts of JASO and TSL are under book value. I think that the buyouts will keep JASO and TSL down over the next few months. People should fear that JASO or TSL will be sold at the bid price. For example, the person who wants to buyout a company could buy up some of the shares and a lot of the convertible bonds, convert the bonds to shares, get 51% of the vote and get the shares at the bid price. JKS is increasing production capacity from 4GW to 5.3GW in the half of 2016. I also think that JKS will get their panels over 20% by midyear and increase their margins to the 25% - 28% range. JKS would have made 61 cents more in Q3 if it had not lost $19.1 million on the exchange rate.
Peter is right, without the high number Q4 would be about $1.05. However JKS should blow away the Q3 number and Q4 will be changed. I would not be surprised if JKS makes $1.50 to $2 in Q3 given what we have heard out of CSIQ, FSLR and SPWR. The only bad thing about Q4 will be the number of MW of plants that JKS will add to the grid in China. This is only a bookkeeping problem, but if JKS started the year at 500MW is at 725MW in Q2 and say is at 840MW at the end of Q3, then JKS would have to add 260MW to 460MW to get to 1.1GW to 1.3GW by the end of the year.