"BDI is down as much for the glut of dry bulk vessels, as for a slowing growth rate in China."
I'd go a step further and say that the BDI is down completely on the glut and is in spite of demand growth in China that is still on-going, albeit at a decelerating pace. The tonnage shipped this year by the drybulk fleet will far surpass that of 2013, yet rates here at the end of the year are dismal. That can only mean that the fleet growth has surpassed the demand growth by at least a couple percentage points. Until this supply growth is matched with demand growth, or scrapping takes out enough supply to make this happen, rates won't see any meaningful move up. 2015 will see about 10% fleet growth against about 3% scrapping for a net increase of 7%. Demand MAY move up 3%, so rates for 2015 are now looking pretty dismal.
What happened to the ore shift? It seems that Australia snagged most of the increases, leaving Brazil, Canada and South Africa in the dust. This killed what should have been strong tonne mile growth. Looks like there is plenty of Aussie ore and that the others are going to have to fight harder to get their share of the Chinese market as the domestic producers fall away on price.
But they do affect asset values. Secondhand vessel prices are continuing to soften as more owners admit the rally has faded and the hope for a rebound in the near future evaporates. A big part of the problem is the price of scrap. This has for years buoyed the price of used tonnage as an owner always knew that they could expect to get $500 per ldt for the steel at the end of a vessels useful life. Now, that expectation is down a significant percentage as breakers are now only offering $420 with the likelihood of sub-$400 coming soon. These falling values can hurt companies with loan to value covenants ability to borrow or renegotiate loans as required.
A chart pattern known as a pennant is forming on the price of oil if you look at a one month chart. This is a triangle that narrows as the days wear on, resulting finally in a breakout and is usually a continuation of the prior move. In this case down to $54 from the $75 range. Generally the breakout which occurs is about the same size as the prior move down to the pennant area.
Technically this could result in oil falling swiftly to some pretty absurd lows, if the pattern is confirmed and the break out, in this case down, occurs. I doubt we'd see the whole $21 drop from here that the pattern would imply, but a drop to $40 could certainly happen. Production just is not being reigned in at all and is actually increasing at this time and will increase more until H2 2015 it appears.
Unfortunately, it looks like the result could be lower prices.
Why should OPEC and specifically the Saudis reduce production? Saudis are only producing about 9 million barrels per day, or about the same as the US now. Why not Russia? Or China even? They have 4 million BPD domestic and control 3 million BPD internationally? OPEC isn't in charge of the world's oil price.
That's why I asked. That is a terrible source of information. Try reading the quarterly report and definitely learn what book value means to a company whose assets have fallen in value by 50% or more from the time of purchase. ORIGs cash is not DRYS cash as well.
Using those figures, the daily take for the fleet would be more like $770,000. And the quarter has 92 days, so the total revs should come in at $70.840,000. Expenses should be very similar to Q3 and they own more NAO this quarter so they will get more in dividends. You are probably correct on the profit amount, since all of the revs are not profit.
Why figure $25,000? The rates for Suezmaxes as shown by the chart on the Teekay site have not been below $25,000 for more than a day or two and have been much higher every other day in the quarter. I'd say $35,000 would be more accurate. And why 20 vessels? They have 22 as of August 4th this year.
That's while slow steaming. At design speed, they burn 60 tons a day and Panamaxes about 40 tons. 15 knots laden.
Rates for their capes didn't change nor did rates for their "panys". You however seem to have remained just as stupid and unable to understand the most basic concepts.
DO sent 6, have 12 more they will send. Will offset all of the newbuilds and then some in 2015.
Compass Maritime has second hand sales information in their weekly reports, so does Nilimar. The planned scrapping is generally a funciton of build dates and values opposed to survey costs and scrap prices. So the numbers are sketchy as far as a exact dates but inevitable given enough time.
"That same business plan is what destroyed fro so I guess he knows."
Yeah, it was his fault, not the crashing of tanker values and rates that caused FRO to crater. And FRO was the only one that cratered.... except every other tanker company. Including some that are completely gone now or restructured already.
LOL! I was thinking satellite TV. That way I can watch the Bucs get stomped as I search for the elusive groupersaurus. Merry Christmas to you and yours.