Well, the "market" seems to not believe in much at all today. DSX missed, SALT missed, BDI low, all adds to weakness, albeit misguided, for DRYS. ORIG is why you own DRYS instead of others. It provides DRYS a long runway for bulker rates to run up as opposed to any other. The shutting down of Chinese iron ore mines has not yet taken place in large enough numbers and the ore the closed mines still had on the ground resulted in a net increase in domestic ore for the first half of the year. That fall off by 100-300 million tons in H2 and bulker rates will soar. There will be strong grain shipments in H2 as well.
2010, revenue $405 million
2011, revenue $699 million
2012, revenue $941 million
2013, revenue $1.108 billion
2014 projected revenue $1.71 billiion
2015 projected revenue $1.96 billion
500% revenue growth in five years. Not too shabby. This is why you buy DRYS. And ORIG. When the tankers and bulkers are seeing rates four to five times what they are now, this price today will seem silly.
Really? Wow. Have you completely missed the evolution of ORIG in the last three years? Or do YOU not understand consolidated financials either?
JR Mills is an idiot.
You would need to have a ton of data to exactly get to a rate using World Scale numbers. Even the Platou worldscale translator only lists 8 routes for which you could input WS and have it spit out a TC return in dollars per day. If you enter WS 83.75 into each of the routes they list, you get a rate in $ ranging from $27k to $38k. Rates at this time are pretty strong for Suezies overall. The Cosmos trip is very high, but it is short duration. $82k but only 9 days.
I'd say it's on sale cheap and those buying today will be happy by year's end.
Then you subtract EVERYTHING ORIG reports from DRYS. Revenue, expenses, depreciation, debt…. everything. What is left is what DRYS shipping segment reports. If you are an idiot and want to lie and do so often, don't do this.
Why do you insist on proving your stupidity so often? What is it about "CONSOLIDATED EARNINGS" do you NOT understand, moron? How you can you say you "read the financials" and then say ORIG has nothing to do with DRYS? How do you account for the line items "Drilling revenues, net" and "Drilling Rig operating expenses" if DRYS has "nothing to do with ORIG"? You are either a liar or the most stupid poster on the whole of all Yahoo boards!
Nah, they have 2 semi subs on the water now and six drillships. You can see the fleet deployment at the ORIG site. #7 will be working in Q3, may be already. #8 will be delivered in January, probably earning some in Q1, fully in Q2. So year over year, Q1 will be pretty amazing growth with a potential 950-1000 earning days versus 659, of which some was lost to BOP problems. A potential 80% increase in revenue.
Do you know what their average bulker TCE is today, using the current rates and knowing that all the capes are on time charter? They only have 25 panamaxes on spot. And how are those tankers doing today? This quarter so far? And of the $34 million loss last Q, $32 million was from ORIG refinance. And this Q they will get $15 million dividend from ORIG which they did not get last Q.
Great for bulkers as Chinese mines close in large numbers.
"Between 20 percent and 30 percent of the country’s iron ore mines have closed, according to the China Metallurgical Mining Enterprise Association. A large proportion of China’s output is loss-making, the Canberra-based Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics said last month.
Global seaborne output will exceed demand by 72 million tons this year and 175 million tons in 2015, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a report dated July 23. The raw material will average $80 in 2015 from $107 this year, according to Goldman.
Yes, I do. I expect that the bulker segment will come in at $12k average TCE and the tankers will come in around $18k. Take 35 ships, rest on time charter, and drop them $4k a day and you have about $13 million less in revs. Add back about $15 million from the dividend and they will show a small loss, probably a penny or two.
"The company has upgraded its estimate for supply growth in the so-called seaborne iron-ore market this year to 140 million metric tons from 120 million tons, Jose Carlos Martins, executive director of Vale's ferrous and strategy division, said in a conference call Thursday. Earlier-than-expected production ramp-ups by Australian miners and scant rainfall in Brazil contributed to the increase."
And no, with the bulker TCE likely to come in at $12k and tankers coming in lower as well, there is likely to be a loss. I expect it, so does most that really know the company. But Q3 is underway, started out with some very hot tanker rates and bulker rates, which are always low this time of year as a rule, will start up soon.
Of the $34.4 million loss, $32.6 million was due to the refi. And there was no $15 million dividend payment. But Q2 won't be great, but the dividend will make it tolerable. it is in Q3 and Q4 that DRYS will shine. You guys that moan and groan every day sure have a short time horizon. You probably should be thinking a bit longer term and wondering how high DRYS will go when the dividend they get grows to $20 million and rates for bulkers and tankers spike up.