Wow. You are being ignorant. Do you know how to compute fleet days? And the TC for Q4, assuming that's what you meant, are double Q3.
China growth on a "steep decline"? LOL! And the growth in ore imports next year as the Chinese miners wither on the vine will abosrb the newbuilds coming even with "steeply declining growth".
Wrong. Iron ore is double the volume of coal and the price of coal is so low that China will import more now. The tariffs do not off set the lower imported coal prices.
I need to go back and refigure some of this. I may have made an error in computing Q3 operating days, leading to a mistake in Q4. I think that 13 ships are correct, leading to 1200 operating days at $23k making total revs about $28 million, not $50 million. I did the math wrong computing operating days for Q3. It was more like 725 or so...
I think it is a chance they take. If not, why not phrase it as "we agree to supply whatever amount of shares required to equal X dollars" or some such wording. Like the ORIG shares given to the bank for collateral. The bank says they need X shares today. If the value goes up, their collateral increases in value, the opposite being true.
I don't think they get to change it. AS the quote says, "has agreed". It doesn't suggest an adjustment to the share price.
Actually, the working days will be even higher in Q4 than it appears on the surface as one vessel delivered July 30, so it only contributed for 60 days in Q3 and another delivered on Sept. 22, contributing for merely 8 days. These two vessels will add 184 days to Q4 v. 68 in Q3 in addition to the vessels delivered in Q4 so far. Two were delivered Oct. 30, so they will add a further 122 days. One other was delivered on Sept 22, so it will add a full 92 days to Q4 where it put in only 8 for Q3. The additional days for Q4 in total will be over 320 total.
This is compared to about 1895 days for Q3. With Cape rates likely to come in around $23k, this would put the top line at around $50 million next quarter v. $19 million this quarter.
I haven't looked much at this until Cape rates started going up. True to form, many investors in this sector don't seem to dig in very deep and just see "Dividend reduced" and TC of $10k for Q3 against operating costs of $13k. They don't see more ships in Q4 earning over twice as much with 2/3 of the quarter in the books already.
They hit this level about in January this year. Go to the Teekay Tankers website, they have a chart of the past three years for Suezies.
that many with money in the stock don't read or understand what is going on and react to bits of data rather than the whole picture.
With costs of $13k a day, they will put up big numbers for Q4. With many more operating days with the three delivered capes.
Iron ore will drop to $60 before it's done and will hover there for a long time based on the production targets of the big three miners.
Are you serious? A brand new Very Large Crude Carrier costs about $100 million. The LARGEST drybulker made only costs $70 million now to order one. FREE has OLD, SMALL drybulkers. You need to read some filings from FREE. THEY sold one of theirs recently for $3.6 million. The Free Knight, March 4th. Check it out.