Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Ancestry.com Inc. Message Board

audphil78 23 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 28, 2016 9:07 PM Member since: Feb 21, 2007
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • Reply to

    Expectations for Q4

    by audphil78 Jan 28, 2016 12:26 AM
    audphil78 audphil78 Jan 28, 2016 9:07 PM Flag

    Could be that the late December buy frenzy related to their liking what they expected for 2016 and not anything stronger than that.

  • audphil78 by audphil78 Jan 28, 2016 12:26 AM Flag

    I expect them to "kitchen sink" Q4. New COO, acquisition with "restructuring" expenses and very touch comp to Q4 of last year. I would guess they will show about $5.7 revenue from "old" EVOL and around $1.3-$1.5mm revenue from acquisition for a total of $7-$7.2mm. I would expect that they will record about $1.1-$1.2mm BEFORE a restructuring charge related to 6th Sense acquisition and come in around $700-$800k in pre-tax income. What will be much more interesting will be to see what bookings and backlog look like for the Q, as that will be much more predictive of future performance. JMHO.
    I also think there is a CHANCE that they may change the dividend policy to start reflecting a % of "net" profits in the future, thus causing a smaller dividend for Q4.

    All of that said, I continue to "nibble" opportunistically and am happy that they did the acquisition for cash rather than stock!

  • Reply to

    Who bought my shares

    by balsski Jan 25, 2016 12:19 PM
    audphil78 audphil78 Jan 26, 2016 1:17 AM Flag

    Where do they find people like you. I have a bridge in Brooklyn I am selling shares in.

  • Put in a buy order for 9,000 shares at $5.26 but only wound up with 902 (2 shares...really??). I think that the upside/downside is very favorable even expecting a "punk" Q4 before things turn up in Q1 2016!! My only concern is that if the share price stays at these levels, the BOD might feel that they can cut the dividend to $.07/quarter and people will still be getting a 5+% yield. Hope that this does not occur.

  • Reply to

    New CEO

    by hweb2 Jan 4, 2016 9:13 AM
    audphil78 audphil78 Jan 4, 2016 11:09 AM Flag

    I have mixed feelings, because Thad has done a GREAT job over the past 10 years of creating shareholder value, but it was clear that this was coming when Thekkathala was brought on board. It would appear the market views this favorably based on the strong bids today in a devastating market! I am much more optimistic now than I have been about the chance for a major price move over the next 6-12 months. I will be more than happy if the stock gets to $8, while I am collecting my dividends.

  • Reply to

    Advertising

    by seminole4345 Nov 14, 2015 1:03 PM
    audphil78 audphil78 Jan 3, 2016 4:10 AM Flag

    They keep trying to prop up their own products in case Dwight pulls the plug on their "goldmine." Their own products are pigs period.

  • "The Company does not intend to increase the current size of its taxi medallion loan portfolio as it continues to diversify its portfolio and to expand in other areas of lending, such as Medallion Bank’s consumer loan portfolio which generated over 75% of the profits of the Company as of September 30, 2015."

  • Reply to

    CHRISTMAS

    by recoveringslowly2004 Dec 24, 2015 1:48 PM
    audphil78 audphil78 Dec 24, 2015 2:01 PM Flag

    Yes...Happy Holiday and hopefully, a healthy and profitable 2016.

  • Reply to

    Interesting morning

    by hweb2 Dec 17, 2015 11:45 AM
    audphil78 audphil78 Dec 22, 2015 11:46 PM Flag

    You indicate "EVOL will never be a low P/E" and I strongly disagree with that. First of all, one needs to make sure that when you discuss E, you are talking about "real" E (Earnings after normal taxation) and not some BS kind of Earnings before stock compensation, amortization and tax credits. If you use the "real" E, EVOL earned .47/share in 2014 and .33/share in 2013. During that time frame the stock sold between $5.60 (sounds familiar) and $11+. Depending on whether you use forward P/E, trailing P/E, TTM P/E...that means that EVOL has sold at from 12 times to 30 times PE over that period. I would view anything less than 17 or 18 P/E to be "low" relative to the Russell.

  • audphil78 audphil78 Dec 17, 2015 2:27 AM Flag

    No filing today. Each company has its own definition of a blackout period, which is designed to make sure that "insiders" (in some companies just key executives, in others BOD and key executives) do not trade the companies stock while they are (or may be) in possession of key financial or other forms of information (acquistion, reorganization etc.) I am not sure what EVOL's dates are, but I seem to recall that it usually ends right after the quarter is reported and I would think logically begins when the results for that quarter are known (not necessarily when the quarter ends, as it may take days/weeks before the books are actually closed and the revenues and profits are determined.)

  • Round and round she goes, where he stops nobody knows!

  • Reply to

    Whoa check out today's Form 4 filing!

    by hweb2 Dec 11, 2015 4:52 PM
    audphil78 audphil78 Dec 11, 2015 11:41 PM Flag

    Wonder what the price would be if the people who sold their stock to Singer and TT were "motivated" sellers and there were no strong hands to sop up the stock these past two weeks?? In any event there could be several motivations for the large purchase. What I am still curious about is who would have been the put buyer for 100,000 shares and what is that person's motives??

  • Reply to

    Acquisition target?

    by o08o.ugh64w Dec 10, 2015 4:19 PM
    audphil78 audphil78 Dec 10, 2015 11:57 PM Flag

    Even if there is not a great "strategic fit" EVOL makes sense as an acquisition because it has such an impressive record of generating profits and positive cash flow, while maintaining a strong balance sheet. Their buying 6th Sense only enhances all of those factors. Companies like Synchronoss and RedKnee that have surplus cash and/or borrowing ability, of course would find EVOL immediately (and significantly) accretive since they would be borrowing at i.e 6% (more like 4% after tax) and generating much higher than that against their carry costs. When Synchronoss stock was flying high, they could have used their inflated currency, but now some air has come out of their balloon. I think that EVOL is worth a solid $11-$12 in a buyout, but as you point out, an offer in the $8-$9 territory would represent a 45-65% premium over current and recent market prices and be difficult for the BOD to turn away. I do not think that Singer has any desire to own/operate a company and not sure he has (or his family) the financial werewithal or desire to invest that much into one operation.

  • Reply to

    Another Form 4

    by hweb2 Dec 9, 2015 6:18 PM
    audphil78 audphil78 Dec 10, 2015 5:09 AM Flag

    There is a section 382 limitation which will only allow EVOL to use about $300,000/year of the NOLs due to the change of control. That is still a piece of change, but they will still run out of time so will probably get to use less than half of them in the next 20 years.

  • Reply to

    Another Form 4

    by hweb2 Dec 9, 2015 6:18 PM
    audphil78 audphil78 Dec 9, 2015 10:06 PM Flag

    P.S. The financials for the acquired company for FY 2014 and 1st 6 months of 2015, as well as pro-formas for the combined companies have been filed. It is interesting how much the company looks like EVOL financially. They dividended out about $2.5mm in cahs before the sale, so their "net" is greater than what EVOL paid, at face value.

  • Reply to

    Another Form 4

    by hweb2 Dec 9, 2015 6:18 PM
    audphil78 audphil78 Dec 9, 2015 10:04 PM Flag

    Yes..and that brings the total buying in the past 2 weeks to about 56,000 shares by Singer and about 22,000 shares by TT. I also expect a filing tomorrow to show that TT bought about 10,000 shares on 10/8. As for the put option, Singer pockets about $.25/share, is willing to be put the stock at $5 (his net would be $4.75) if there is heavy tax-loss selling; if no selling, it reduces his cost of the shares he has just bought. I can see his logic if he is bullish. What I can't understand is who would be on the other end (presumably someone who wants the right to sell at $5 and net $4.75??

  • Definitely a meaningful amount. Very encouraging.

  • Reply to

    Another day, another Form 4 filing

    by hweb2 Dec 4, 2015 4:28 PM
    audphil78 audphil78 Dec 7, 2015 9:58 PM Flag

    Support the shares?? Doubt if that is their motive at all. No reason to "support the shares." They are buying because they think they can make profits from the appreciation and the dividends over time. PERIOD

  • I have seen this movie before and the panic selling looks to me like there is knowledge that there may be more "forced" selling coming in the near future. This could happen if RK has borrowed against his KMI stock and the lenders ask him to ante up or sell enough to bring the loan back to its terms??

  • audphil78 audphil78 Dec 2, 2015 9:41 PM Flag

    I hope you turn out to be right, but I would be thrilled with $8, which would be better than almost a 50% gain from here if you include dividends. I will always take that kind of return.