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audphil78 570 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 25, 2015 1:51 AM Member since: Feb 21, 2007
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  • Reply to

    new customer!

    by chrisdress Jun 24, 2015 8:53 AM
    audphil78 audphil78 Jun 25, 2015 1:51 AM Flag

    Yes...this portends well for 3-4 quarters hence, which is when the revenue starts to hit. My hunch is that you may get a GREAT buying opportunity shortly after Q-2 as all the weak hands fell from an OK, but not great quarter. In the meantime they are paying 4-5% for you to wait for the goodies to come home.

  • Reply to

    The "sure" money is coming in now.

    by ezalldee May 21, 2015 3:08 PM
    audphil78 audphil78 Jun 16, 2015 6:00 AM Flag

    If the deal were to close right now, the 30 day volume-weighted price for ATT is around $34.60, so 1.905 shares of ATT + $28.50 in cash would be given. At today's close that is $94.05; however depending on exactly when the deal closes, remember that ATT is over 80% "pregnant" with its dividend of $.47....If the deal were to close on the day after the stock goes ex-div (7/8 is the ex-div date) and the price were to be at today's close (34.41)...then the stock would be at $33.94 and the exchange would drop to $93.15 so be careful!!!!!

  • SNCR is already valued at a much higher multiple than EVOL (and they are MUCH, MUCH larger and also into some different aspects of activation, such as providing the collateral "free" storage for major domestic carriers upon activation etc.)...however the fact that they might sell themselves at an even higher price shows how seriously undervalued EVOL is. Clean balance sheet, strong free cash flow, with minimum Capex and large, motivated inside shareholder could see this one on the block also and it would go for $14-$15 if the Cash Flow multiples were the same as SNCR is implying.

  • Reply to

    What is there to LIKE.

    by lary5449 Apr 18, 2015 1:52 PM
    audphil78 audphil78 Jun 1, 2015 1:22 AM Flag

    This is a fund which has specific holdings. The value is highly correlated with its net asset value. I'd suggest you read about Funds 101 instead of the newspaper.

  • Reply to

    Good volume April 1

    by wywiseman1 Apr 1, 2015 2:57 PM
    audphil78 audphil78 Apr 6, 2015 4:01 AM Flag

    P.S. If it is up today (Monday, April 6) then it would it would show a really committed buyer because it looks like today is going to be a train wreck.

  • Reply to

    Good volume April 1

    by wywiseman1 Apr 1, 2015 2:57 PM
    audphil78 audphil78 Apr 6, 2015 2:59 AM Flag

    59,000 shares is not exactly a bunch of excited institutional investors packing into a momo stock and small traders wouldn't be caught dead trading an illiquid stock like this. YES, it is worth a higher price, but clearly there was someone highly motivated to sell from $10 down to $8 over quite a period of time and that stock was being sucked up also, in higher volumes. Were those buyers "downward momo" investors?? Don't overdo the analysis on the daily trading. Focus more on what the company does, how its business and competitors are doing and what Dupper says (as he is as honest and straight as they come.) One part of their business is stagnant and not very promising, but the growth part is very exciting. There are several companies like RedKnee and Synchronoss who could buy them at a nice price and still have the acquisition be accretive to them on day one.

  • Reply to

    Good volume April 1

    by wywiseman1 Apr 1, 2015 2:57 PM
    audphil78 audphil78 Apr 2, 2015 9:54 PM Flag

    It is NOT momentum traders buying this stock. NO trader would ever dabble in stock this thin for a whole variety of reasons.

  • Why Evolving Systems (EVOL) Might Be a Diamond in the Rough - Tale of the Tape
    By Zacks Equity Research
    17 hours ago

    It can be very difficult to find companies that are both flying under the radar, and still might have potential for gains. Many times, stocks are off investors’ radar screens for a reason, though there are some hidden gems that could be worth uncovering by those with a high risk tolerance.

    Why Evolving Systems (EVOL) Might Be a Diamond in the Rough - Tale of the Tape Zacks 17 hrs ago
    Zacks Rank #1 Additions for Friday - Tale of the Tape Zacks 4 days ago
    One way to find these underappreciated stocks is by looking at companies that haven’t seen their share prices move higher lately, but have observed analysts raising earnings estimates for their stock. This trend could signal that investors haven’t quite embraced the rising estimate story yet, but that the potential for a big move higher is definitely there.

    One such company that looks well positioned for a solid gain, but has been overlooked by investors lately, is Evolving Systems Inc. (EVOL). This Communication Network Software stock has actually seen estimates rise over the past month for the current fiscal year by about 65.9%. But that is not yet reflected in its price, as the stock gained only 0.7% over the same time frame.

    You should not be concerned about the price remaining muted going forward. This year’s expected earnings growth over the prior year is 34.7%.

  • Reply to

    225,000 share block unloaded

    by catjomy31 Mar 23, 2015 2:41 PM
    audphil78 audphil78 Mar 24, 2015 3:21 AM Flag

    Not sure if it was "unloaded" or "bought" as the price action immediately before would imply there was a "buyer" who was as motivated (or perhaps moreso) than the seller.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Very straight-forward and transparent presentation and answered tons of questions in a very direct and easy-to-understand way. They called out what was great, what was just good and what they need to work on. Definitely a breath of fresh air compared to other conference calls. They also disclosed that they had won a Tier 1 customer that they had no previously disclosed (at the customer's request). Tier 1 are BIG and so the $$ will come from that in the coming years. Each time they get a "win" it is like an annuity. Their DSA is growing at a huge rate, which offsets the levelling in TSA. Definitely great value and, of course, a very shareholder-friendly company. They implied that Q1 would be a good comp over last year's relatively soft Q1 so some smooth sailing ahead for a few months. Also, they again pointed out that one needs to look at them on an annual basis and not Q to Q.

  • Bookings were good; backlog a bit flat, but that has never been the most precise future measure of performance. I am amazed that they were able to bring so much down to the bottom line. Clearly dividend is safe and the full year's performance is boffo. Not one of these garbage "adjusted" this or "adjusted" that but a real honest-to-goodness $1.6mm AFTER fully taxed GAAP...for $.14/share ($.13 diluted). Full year was $.48 ($.47 fully diluted GAAP earnings fully taxed.) Growth of 18% revenue YOY and net income 47%.

  • Reply to

    Patiently waiting

    by camilleraye Feb 11, 2015 10:18 AM
    audphil78 audphil78 Mar 11, 2015 5:32 AM Flag

    Yes, their business is doing well, but remember that it is "lumpy" and thus needs to be looked at on a 4-quarter basis to account for new account set ups and large one-time "fillups" on Sim Cards for existing customers.
    However, their EBITDA for the first 3 quarters is already a half-million higher than the full year last year, so the full year will certainly look strong.

  • audphil78 audphil78 Mar 11, 2015 5:27 AM Flag

    Yes, glad to see it was on a Monday and not a Friday ; )

  • Reply to

    Selling is just about over.

    by p8iano Feb 17, 2015 10:14 PM
    audphil78 audphil78 Feb 20, 2015 8:17 PM Flag

    And you think 24,000 shares means anything. That is $225,000 worth of stock. Company has a market cap of $100,000,000. Great buying opportunity for a LONG-TERM investor.

  • Reply to

    Here is what will happen tomorrow

    by bubbizix Feb 17, 2015 8:53 PM
    audphil78 audphil78 Feb 18, 2015 6:15 PM Flag

    You clearly don't have a clue about PE. Try taking their REAL earnings (GAAP is there for a reason) and then taxing them fully (they have NOLs so are not paying taxes) and they earned $.07/share last they are selling at over 50 times PE

  • Reply to

    This is seriously dead money

    by audphil78 Feb 17, 2015 4:47 PM
    audphil78 audphil78 Feb 17, 2015 10:18 PM Flag

    Missed out on what? The fall in after hours or the slow liquidation coming in the next few weeks as analysts downgrade based on the company's lowered guidance. If you listened to the conference call you will see what is coming as they were incredulous that ZIXI keeps touting double digit growth in the "space" but delivers single digit growth as a company.

  • Dead money and guidance was not particularly exciting. When you evaluate ZIX remember to pro-forma them as though they are being taxed if you want to compare their PE to others; grossly overvalued with no earnings lift. Also looks like the secured e-mail function may no longer be carved out for separate security which would cut them out of the game. If you really want to invest in "security" then MobileEye, Cyberark and Palo Alto Networks are the big 3 going forward.

  • Reply to

    new board of director member

    by wywiseman1 Dec 15, 2014 12:49 PM
    audphil78 audphil78 Dec 16, 2014 12:41 AM Flag

    As previously noted, a non-event given his mom owns 23% of the company.

  • Coming only a few weeks after they downgraded to hold they must have latched on to
    some "hints" of good news on the order front IMHO. That along with the $.44 dividend clearly
    make their price target very achievable.

  • Reply to

    EVOL is all over the place price wise

    by wywiseman1 Nov 18, 2014 10:53 AM
    audphil78 audphil78 Nov 18, 2014 4:41 PM Flag

    Why do you obsess over the d#$%$ily price. Are you #$%$ tr#$%$der or #$%$n investor?? Lots of fun g#$%$mes with thinly tr#$%$ded stocks. Yesterd#$%$y #$%$nd tod#$%$y the stock w#$%$s pushed down $..35 #$%$nd .20 respectively on #$%$ few sh#$%$res #$%$t the close. So wh#$%$t?? Key is th#$%$t the comp#$%$ny is doing well #$%$nd th#$%$t there #$%$re strong rumors #$%$bout #$%$ t#$%$keout, which m#$%$y #$%$ccount for the higher volumes the p#$%$st few weeks.