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Ancestry.com Inc. Message Board

audphil78 15 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 18, 2014 4:41 PM Member since: Feb 21, 2007
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  • Google has somehow messed up its search functions for many users with older browsers and operating systems and doesn't seem to know what is happening. They will begin to lose big $$ relative to analysts' espectations if this keeps up. Search is their "bread and butter" and they have just hurt themselves badly, but only a few techies seem to know this right now.

  • They are NOT using AWRE biometrics at all. It will become a cheap universal standard for facial recognizition.

  • Mark this post. Within 30 days (after a few more PR to try and support the price) be ready of some kind of PIPE or convert with massive dilution. They are running low on cash (by their own admission) and either have to start chopping up the furniture to put in the fire or find someone else who is willing to put up bucks (and they will want a big equity chunk in exchange!)

  • They had about $6mm in revenue for the 3Q last year. I expect them to easily beat that with very good YOY comps. Stock should definitely like that, along with continued $.44 dividend rate, which is even 4% at $11 price!! This company has such a long track record of rewarding shareholders that the upside/downside on this is VERY favorable if you believe that the dividend is safe (and since they just raised it and have a solid balance sheet with plenty of cash, it certainly looks that way.)

  • Reply to

    Easy quarterly comp coming up.

    by audphil78 Oct 5, 2014 4:35 AM
    audphil78 audphil78 Oct 6, 2014 7:01 AM Flag

    I follow about 40 microcaps (own 5) and also follow 20 large caps (own 11). Since August there have been a lot of red arrows on the microcaps. Russell actually was in correction territory. Probably a few holders trimming around the edges (but not Karen Singer as she would have to report!!).

  • audphil78 audphil78 Oct 10, 2014 8:19 AM Flag

    Totally ignorant statement. They had $138mm in the bank as of last Q and will now get another 28mm...for a total of $166mm. They will probably have about $8mm in negative cash flow for this current quarter, so there will be around $158mm in cash (their A/R covers their A/P)...so they have about $3.10/share in pure cash. They have possible contingent payments of around $20mm coming in the next few years. They are a Canadian-based company. They have a drug in Phase II trials as an "Orphan Drug" which has been "fast tracked" by the U.S.. At $4.10 this stock is a screaming buy.

  • audphil78 audphil78 Oct 10, 2014 8:27 AM Flag

    P.S. They also have about a $75mm tax asset for utilization in Canada. They had another $25 for the U.S., but it has now been limited to to a sufficient change of ownership in 2012 such that it is highly unlike it can be used before it expires.

  • audphil78 by audphil78 Oct 28, 2014 12:29 AM Flag

    EVOL's overall longer-term trend is very positive in terms of revenue and earnings, but don't obsess quarter-to-quarter or you may be disappointed as their sales can be "lumpy." The fact that they are paying a 4%+ dividend pays you to be patient.

    As for the current volume, I am reminded of a period from October 2013 when the stock went up from $9.15 to $11.35 or so only to fall back into the low $9s a few weeks later when earnings were disappointing.

    Keep your eye on free cash flow as that is the key number OVER TIME.

  • Reply to

    New 52 week high

    by wywiseman1 Oct 29, 2014 3:15 PM
    audphil78 audphil78 Oct 30, 2014 7:40 AM Flag

    B. Riley cut rating this AM to Neutral. Seems odd that they would do this right before earnings. If the report should be bad, one will wonder if they had some inside information!!

  • Cut EVOL this AM with earnings due within the week. If the earnings are poor one could certainly make a case that B. Riley had "inside information"??

    JUST MY HUMBLE OPINION OF COURSE.

  • Riley must have gotten scared before the report. Lots of exciting things on the conference call in terms of "futures" (ad sales at times of activation, connected car, U.S. expansion with Sprint and more prepaid phones etc. etc.) Riley was so busy asking about next quarter he couldn't see past the nose on his face.
    This a a GREAT stock for the L--O--N--G run (and it ain't so bad now.) If the Riley guy knew how to read a balance sheet he might have noticed that there was $5.8mm in UNBILLED WORK IN PROGRESS (there was $4.4mm at the end of last quarter and only about $2.3mm at the end of the year.) That means that they are "pregnant" with revenue for Q4. D. A. Davidson seems to have picked up on that.

  • Reply to

    This stock is horrible

    by wywiseman1 Nov 6, 2014 2:48 PM
    audphil78 audphil78 Nov 7, 2014 2:41 PM Flag

    This is NOT a stock for an impatient investor. They have a GREAT track record for giving money to shareholders and earn money consistently on a real GAAP basis, fully taxed (whereas most companies these days report earnings before expenditures on cloudy days and tips to deliverymen.) They also pay you to wait, with the next record date November 18 for $.11. Definitely NOT a stock to try and day trade as it is highly illiquid. They showed $5.8mm on the balance sheet in unbilled work in progress, much of which will flow through in the next Q, so my guess is that Q4 will be a strong one also.

    As others have noted they are getting their toes wet with new initiatives like the Apploader with "ads" (or app sales) upon activations, work in the connected car, some M2M and greater presence in North America through their relationship with Sprint (and perhaps others coming up??) due to increased market share for prepaid phones (their business!!)

    There are also at least 3 or 4 logical acquirors down the road (Synchronoss, Neustar etc.) Quarter to quarter is not a great way to view this stock...much better to look TTM over time.

  • Reply to

    today is the last trading days for dndn

    by steve321nguyen Nov 11, 2014 8:22 AM
    audphil78 audphil78 Nov 11, 2014 8:27 AM Flag

    Are you really that ignorant or are you just trying to intentionally mislead? Stock will trade until the reorganization is finished. It will move to pink sheets shortly, but will continue to trade until the Judge bangs his gavel (which could take months.) Morons will continue to buy and sell like a yoyo with each piece of news perceived to somehow change the outlook...NOTTTTTT

  • Reply to

    Bidding Process

    by flvbguy Nov 10, 2014 10:38 PM
    audphil78 audphil78 Nov 11, 2014 8:31 AM Flag

    You are correct. Shareholders have NO say in what goes on with this company unless an "equity committee" is formed in the Chapter 11 and that may not happen if it is felt that he equity has no chance to succeed, since each additional committee costs the "estate" big money for lawyers, accountants and consultants.

  • Reply to

    EVOL is all over the place price wise

    by wywiseman1 Nov 18, 2014 10:53 AM
    audphil78 audphil78 Nov 18, 2014 4:41 PM Flag

    Why do you obsess over the d#$%$ily price. Are you #$%$ tr#$%$der or #$%$n investor?? Lots of fun g#$%$mes with thinly tr#$%$ded stocks. Yesterd#$%$y #$%$nd tod#$%$y the stock w#$%$s pushed down $..35 #$%$nd .20 respectively on #$%$ few sh#$%$res #$%$t the close. So wh#$%$t?? Key is th#$%$t the comp#$%$ny is doing well #$%$nd th#$%$t there #$%$re strong rumors #$%$bout #$%$ t#$%$keout, which m#$%$y #$%$ccount for the higher volumes the p#$%$st few weeks.

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