Penn West Petroleum Ltd. Message Board

Down Down she goes. stock trading at 2/3 the price of the 2008 low! on a market cap perspective, i don't know how many shares have been offered in the mean time, but pretty awful consider gold was what, under 800 then? huge volume today too. stock loses 1/4 of its value in the last week, 70% of its value YTD, and management has nothing to say. The stock is trading far worse than the rest of the juniors (most other juniors made a low in april may--THM keeps going).

google it

google it

How is $1 a criterion?
Here are the NYSE listing criteria:
Distribution & Size Criteria
Must meet all 3 of the following:
Round-lot Holders (a) 400 U.S.
Public Shares (b) 1,100,000 outstanding
Market Value of Public Shares (b,c):
IPOs, Spin-offs, Carve-outs, Affiliates
All Other Listings $40 million
$100 million

Stock Price Criteria
All issuers must have a $4 stock price at the time of listing

that seems about right - PWE overbought right now...

It looks like the message board was opened on THM to get the final flush out going. Unbridled selling. In my opinion, the stock is trading like it is going out of business. THM has to be the worst performer out of all the juniors. Wouldn't be surprised to see this puppy go down another 10% today - right to the circuit breaker trigger.

Pipelines can only be a plus. In the meantime, rail freight - though far more expensive (i did a cursory search, but don't know the actual cost per per barrel premium over pipeline) and arguably more dangerous, will pick up slack. My understanding is that most of the Bakken production is sent via rail...With WTI over 98, someone is going to figure out a way to get severely discounted WCS to a terminal with better pricing.

So obviously, gold drives PVG's price. Interesting even Jim Rogers said Roubini's claim for sub $1,000 is BS (Kitco interview posted yesterday or day before). He said he bought a little in this past dip & will buy more if it dips again + Gold will be much higher a few years from now. It's a worthwhile interview as he had previously said gold was ready for a correction.

So back to PVG - panic in juniors is great to pick up, with caution, more shares of PVG. Thesis for PVG (always worth repeating):
-high quality gold deposit of size (PVG is ALWAYS listed in OTHER juniors' presentations--that is a great thing (Ask the competitors....)
-good jurisdiction
-management team with skin in the game
-low cap ex
-short time to production
-short payback
-greatest risk, in my opinion is permitting (but i've looked at PVG's argument - dead lake, in mining district, not feeding directly into critical environmental areas, etc and it doesn't seem so bad).

what big blue is saying is that you don't want to go in too deep until gold has clearly bottomed. Technical analysis would point to the triangle formation falling out and continuing the downtrend. Lots of pressure (shorts) pushing down on gold. So if the low that from the past 60 days doesn't hold, expect a big downdraft. Certainly to $1280. Possibly lower if the hold banking system collapses again.

But that said, PVG is the best!

got to web site international tower hill mines. read through slide presentation. it's on slide 19 (of may presentation).

Yup. But I think the volatility will present some good trading opportunities.

Blown out of the water. Why it is performing worse than pretty much any other stock, hitting new lows daily? not sure. THM seems to be 100% controlled by HFT, with huge intraday swings. I think there is speculation that Paulson will ditch his shares. He is the #2 institutional shareholder, after Tocqueville. The cap ex on the Livengood project is pretty steep, so the only way to make it into production is through acquisition or heavy share dilution. That probably answers a lot right there, since no one is buying big projects these days...

As a junior, it's far from the worst play: very large gold deposit-one of the biggest unexploited in the world, in a good jurisdiction (Alaska) and a high level officer that was once Alaska's head of natural resource management. It looks like permitting is a no brainer-in a designated mining district. It's a placer deposit, so very low cost of extraction - much like KGC's Fort Knox. Ore grade isn't as good as Ft. Knox. Years to production is super far out there - 2019. Gold bull probably over by then... NPV at current gold (say 1400 w/ a 5% discount rate) is ~$2 billion. Cap Ex is something like $1.5 billion to construct mine. So that's a lot of unknowns for a big project. Does it warrant market cap of $70 million? probably not...If NPV is 2 billion, you could imagine a fair value for the company, at this stage, something like $500 million. That's not unreasonable, 75% discount from NPV.

My take? I bought a decent amount today at $.71-$.73. That was my target price. You can't buy options that cheap...Since the company has no debt, it can just sit there (and HOPEFULLY lay off its worthless IR staff). So you've got a very long dated call on gold at this price.

PWE cut dividend, got new, high powered CEO and a BOD that was primed to do a deal. There's a lot of speculation that PWE will get acquired. Plus David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff is bullish on Canada. You get a whiff of inflation and commodities will take off, PGH with them.

miners should be going crazy? how do you arrive at that? juniors are valued very low (not to say they won't go lower) because the idea is that they get acquired and no big producer would think about acquiring them in this environment + the big producers are more or less at break even @ $1,400 gold. So please explain "going crazy."

Good call - you made about 10% on DUST since the 7th. Still hovering around 50DMA

funny - yahoo thinks the currency of Vietnam is a naughty word.

that's a lot of #$%$

oh - and no debt...

That is - hoping low in Gold will hold...

BB, nice to see the well tempered post. I'd welcome some nice pullbacks in PVG to pickup / trade.GIven the selloff Friday afternoon in the face of gold's upward move + the ALWAYS detrimental to Gold FOMC meeting next week + the running out of the triangle gold is forming, I'd imagine we'd see a downdraft of gold soon + so a buy opportunity w/ PVG.

Hoping the low will hold, but I'd imagine that we will see the technical support levels continue to be crushed--because they can be--until some even triggers an interest in gold (financial system failure somewhere).

I'm long MUX, but still see Argentina as a huge problem. Even if there is no nationalization, the capital controls in place at the federal level, and crazy tariffs required by some states make Argentina a non starter. The only saving grace is that Fernandez Kirchner's term is nearly up.