Minimally. Restaurants primarily in tx, ga, al, nc, sc, va, la . No wage increases there. It will affect AZ and AR locations. AZ is ..15/hr, AR is a buck twenty five! IMO the crash in oil is going to affect Zoes much much more. It will be devastating to TX, ok, and LA businesses-far bigger loss than any gains to consumer lower oil prices will bring.
The longs's argument would be better served if it had some quantities attached to it as a yardstick. For starters: npv and project milestones. Putting the occasional photo on the web page is like a kindergarten project. I believe ore is on the pad, but without numbers it is meaningless for an investor.
LSP-looking at it with fresh eyes here-I was hoping for a pop on a technical basis (macd bullish crossover, selling over done, still though, slow stochastic is horribly low). I got in @ 21. Price action seems a bit too heavy + the bears/shorts are circling. Probably going to bail with a small loss next week. On the face of it, operations don't look bad--EBIDTA % up quarter over quarter, paying off debt, It even manages to throw off free cash flow. I agree- I think Goodwill is the last refuge of a scoundrel...They should write it off more aggressively. Is this another Chipotle? Heck no. I think chipotle is a once in a generation opportunity both in terms of their product offering & the market.
I don't actually see why LOCO is such a big short target...But will heed the tape.
Tallfaller- Thx for the detailed response--that's extremely helpful for a non-geo engineer/scientist. On the financial front--Relbo hit the nail on the head in his Dec 24 post "...without changing guidance." For me--the kicker/point when I started buying out of the money puts was when they failed, as a public company, to put any economic guidance/NPV with their new plan (spring 2014). I would buy more long dated put options, but I think the company has a fair probability of delisting, which would leave me high & dry.
Regarding your comment, "This is a novel approach, but could be the primary reason why this has taken 10+ years since I was a speckie in this stock." This is another issue. Up until about two years ago, the company was ostensibly a royalty/exploration company, as the name implies. Then at the annual general meeting the CEO changed strategy and announced that TRX would become a production company. Nothing wrong with that in theory. But there were no personnel changes, nor was there balance sheet restructuring to match the strateg. While you make a fair argument for boot strapping, the company never put a figure on the capital requirements for the bootstrap plan (and obviously no projected return)--unconscionable , in my mind, for a public company. The CEO stated off the record at the same annual general meetings that TRX was fully capitalized / he would not have to dilute existing shareholders (which is exactly what the company is doing with its issuance of warrants).
If you go back to the company's record as a royalty/exploration endeavor, the company didn't monetize any of its properties during the entire gold bull market. The company lost a lot of shareholder money & destroyed a lot of shareholder value (by the measure of capital put into the firm versus balance sheet growth/cash flow).
Tallfaller. Relbo has done the due diligence. Unlike Sinclair, he doesn't pull numbers from his rectum.
1. This is directly from the VenmynDeloitte 43-101 (2014) posted on TRX's webpage: "the light of TRX’s aim of reducing capex and opex costs, the potential for heap leaching must be reconsidered in more detail. Recent testwork on material from the Bingwa Prospect indicates that gold recoveries of 72% for the oxide material are possible, whilst the gold recoveries for the transition and fresh zone are a definitely lower (55%) than those of the gravity-CIL plant."
2. 60 Days is from the Sept 02, 2014 press release: While the complete leach cycle is estimated at a minimum of 60 days, the majority of the metal should be recovered in less than 45 days.
3. CIC plant is mentioned in the 20-F/Annual report. TRX had made an agreement to purchase, but had not purchased it.
I doubt that Sinclair would go in for more:
1. My guess is people overestimate his wealth.
2. He is old...it would be a risky venture @.15 a share.
3. His modus operandi is to use other people's money--be they CIGAS, Geier Capital, what have you.
Ol' trader Jim probably making a killing going in & out of the company for his upcoming retirement / expatriation.
Wrong! It's the polar opposite technically. MACD made bullish cross over, slow stochastic mega strong. Plus financial media, which I see as organs of hedge funds, are bullish. Obviously, the day is not overr, but it looks like it will belong to the bulls.
2BC - Agree that it's better to miss out on the lower 5-10% of a rebound rather than catch a falling knife. That said--PGH is starting to look interesting, no? Slow Stochastic 89,3 up to 17.x (a lot stronger than other Canadian producers). Tax loss selling pretty much over with (which may account for part of bounce in recent days).
Obviously the elephant in the room is price of oil--PGH's divergence from price of oil in last 5 trading days makes the rebound suspect (or perhaps oil is finding a bottom around 55).
Just average volume until now...Not exactly a panic. Technicals are much better than Sept approval. Nevertheless, I sold 1/2 my shares to lock in a profit. Little guys get killed on event driven stocks.
The transaction seems odd on many levels: Why would a company with no mine to produce cash flow anytime soon (as evidenced by the lack of cap ex on FS) settle on debt financing whose stipulation is cash flow? Why would it settle on such small initial sum, only enough to get through one quarter or at most a half year of admin & care and maintenance expenses? Why would the company settle on the worst possible financing - diluting existing shareholders AND setting itself up for failure with cash flow dependent debt financing?
Also - the funding violates so many of Sinclair's promises: No dilution of existing shareholders, Buckreef fully capitalized, mining to occur in 2014.
I'd love to see the Webcast of the 2012 AGM where Sinclair talks about Kigosi, Buckreef, & becoming a production company, but I don't believe it's posted anymore...
Ahh- this must be what Jim is telling people who are calling his hotline.
Look at the Dec 10 Press release which says the funding will allow them to complete phase 1 of Buckreef. Then read the April 16 press release which defines Phase 1 & Phase 2.