-TRX doesn't have the tens of millions to build a mine: Ignore
-TRX doesn't have working capital to get through Q1 2015: Ignore
-TRX's CEO sold most of his shares when he said he was 'all in': Ignore
-TRX's Buckreef deposits are uneconomic at $1,300, let alone $1,200: Ignore
2BC - more specifically XOP is exploration & production, XLE the greater sector. A bit of a distinction b/c the common thought (and I'm a commoner) is that oil price is sinking more b/c of increased supply and less so because of economic stagnation. Important because downstream companies are feasting on this--lower inputs and increased demand look at PRICES of refiners such as VLO, PSX, and best of all TSO.
Happy Thanksgiving in the Hamptons.
Tiedyed- Another way of looking at it is how does Zoes stack up against CMG, Panera, etc. in Tripadvisor reviews. Agree that after looking at a small sample city - Zoes does well, better average review than CMG (4-4.5 cog vs. 4-5 ZOES) - roughly the same margin against Panera, Five Guys, Boston Market.
Not a problem (about the double post).
-Kevin Miles still has over $6 million in stock in the company. That's his primary worth.
-His salary is (2013) 1/2 that of LOCO's Steve Sather (400K vs 800K).
-I'm not an executive recruiter, but my guess would be that it would be hard for him to move on to a mega-chain and $$$ as, to belabor the point, CMG is 20x the size of Zoes in terms of sales. Different skill set.
-If he did leave, it seems to me he would go to a Dollarhyde venture, as their history is deep (and seemingly loyal). IMO he's he'll stay on & possibly w/ some bonus incentives.
-I think the way you'd know he'd be leaving is through open market sales rather than these structured offerings.
You can pretty much discount any review with an exclamation point (!) in the title. Or ones where people are going there for the anniversary dinner or to propose to their girlfriends…Lot's of pumping just like on this board. Good work Ms. Phillips-Luther!
On a tangent - very short term, it looks like the stock price is bumping into overhead resistance about 32.5-32.75 -- both as former support level & around 50dma. Plus the usual technical indicators are still pointing down. Nothing for long term investors to worry about.
The major withdrawals are from VC/Private equity rather than management. As I mentioned, I think, in an earlier post--that's not necessarily bad as going public is essentially the end goal for their stage of investing.
Key Management still has a decent equity interest relative to the number of shares they owned prior to going public (remaining shares in parenthesis): Miles (198k) , Morgan (106k), Phillips Luther (25k), Hartley (18k). So my takeaways are--
1. It's Miles's show and to a lesser extent Morgan's. Hartley is somewhat redundant as Miles is an operations guy.
2. Management never owned too much of the company to begin with (in contrast to Dollarhyde & Brentwood).
3. Future incentives will need to come from new options & salary, especially as the company scales up (but by this I mean 10x current restaurants-if it ever gets to that, not just doubling).
4. A quibble- by having two secondary offerings rather than simply selling into the market insiders have stuck shareholders with extra costs that are not insignificant--obviously you could counter that it props up stock price…
Textbook example of how to dupe gullible investors/CIGAS.
1. Create a persona of trust. The good Shepard in a world of crooks and banksters.
2. Tell your investors off record that it will cost nothing to build the mine. "The biggest problem is keeping artisanal miners from walking off with nuggets!"
3. Send out deliberately vague press releases that promise nothing. the press release promises to "advance" the Buckreef mine, not build it out to production.
also, you can look at Duval's linked in page where he writes that the express purpose of increasing name recognition (of Sinclair and Duval and their respective business interests).
Thanks for the comments Div & Liar.
1. Agree that "consumer fickleness" could be an issue--there's a reason why the majority of lasting chains are burger joints…
2. Div: So even doubling stores over four years puts ZOES at an order of magnitude under CMG…So that would go to your point that SG&A shouldn't be stressed too much by growth. Put another way, current management can handle it. I still think that getting growing to 1K plus units, if it would ever happen, would require a different management team. That's a long way down the road.
3. Not sure who is giving you a thumbs down--useful, thoughtful comments on your part.
Div Seek. My question on your assumptions is will P/E & P/S remain remain statistic through 2018 or put another way, the bull market will run another three to four years.
Also, the company has relatively few restaurants now…which means, how well can the company maintain operating efficiency as a large company. Until now, the company has (and I've written this before on this board) has had great operational execution by the management team--so will they be able to scale up?
These are things to watch, rather than a damning of the company. Stock ended the day right at 50DMA and horizontal support around 32.5…seems to me that it will be critical hold these levels for short term performance.
High end of operating income guidance from Nov. 10 (875K). Full year revenue inline. EPS .02 vs .04 whisper. Current stockholders pay an additional 600K for 3rd stock offering, which hurt earnings. See my Nov 10 post. No surprises one way or another, right? Operating margins deteriorated slightly over same quarter last year.
To repeat ad infinitum: it's not about fundamentals, its purely momentum.
-Pre-announced most of the metrics on earnings…so that's baked in already.
-Chartists would say that the momentum is turning up…somewhat up in the air, but definitely not negative
-Stock found support somewhere around 32.5, former resistance after pre-announced earnings
-It will be interesting to see if stock can break back out of resistance @34.5-35
-Huge short interest might bite the shorts in the behind--Company is richly valued, but has no debt, decent enough margins in an industry that's on fire in a market that's exploding…Funds that underperformed the market are chasing returns. Plus, the company has no foreign exposure and so no exposure to sick man Europe & slowing growth in China.
-Maybe some sort of quid pro quo between private equity & institutional investors that institutions prop up stock in the beginning so Brentwood can get out, Brentwood hands over its shares for institutions to run with the momentum. Retail investors have yet been handed bag to hold. It's clearly a greater fool stock, but i think there are far greater fools down the road.
-Trust no one. Figure out what the agenda of the posters is--everyone talks there book, as it were.
pumpers and dumpers on both sides. Some seemingly disgruntled ex-employees at the corporate level (know too much about who's who on the private equity side), shorts trapped. On the pump side, seemingly reasonable posters who only manage to comment on the positive / long term prospects of the company who are certainly paid for their effort.
Bert Seligman--The B.S. technique. Who knows if Bert Seligman even existed, or if "he" is another fiction along with Paul Volker calling Jimmy Boy in the cloak of darkness to figure out how to unload the Hunt Brother's Silver.
TRX is highly correlated to the GDXJ right now (correlation coefficient (20) of .9), so TRX is reaping the benefits of index's reversal. TRX can't go halfway through 2015 without funding (and probably won't make it through Q1) and no one is going to fund a small, marginal deposit with $500k obligations to its host country.
Sinclair's cynical pronouncements of first pours, royalty agreements, and heap leach pad construction without cost besmirch the reputation of miners that are actually trying to mine. It will be a relief to the sector when this co. finally goes t. up.
MannChris686-Doesn't matter what management is doing short term. The market is not treating any Canadian producers kindly: the correlation coefficient (20) between PWE & PGH has been over .9 since early October, Ditto PWE & BTE. As long as oil stays below 80, Euroland & Japan dipping into recessions, growth sputtering out in China, and people like Gartmann braying about the end of oil, the stock isn't going anywhere.
That said, you're probably at a point where Hoosiers are on the short wagon...