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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

aurorainsider 722 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 30, 2014 10:32 PM Member since: May 8, 1998
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  • aurorainsider by aurorainsider Oct 30, 2014 10:32 PM Flag

    The company now has $73 million in tangible net worth or $1.22/share. So with a market cap of about $85 mil., that means that the current Street valuation on the operating segments is just $12 mil or 12 cents for each dollar of sales. Does anyone believe that both the IBW and CSG segments would only fetch $12 mil if put up for sale?? I guess all rational thought is thrown out the window in the wake of emotional disappointment.

    I'll be off the board until Q4 since there is no real reason to post sans an executive change. There really is nothing more to say. Good luck longs. Until 2015.

  • Reply to

    George Soros and WSTL?

    by raw10000000 Oct 30, 2014 6:17 PM
    aurorainsider aurorainsider Oct 30, 2014 6:46 PM Flag

    The information is about as flawed as the fact reported that Westell beat by a penny. Don't pay any attention to it.

  • Reply to

    Observations

    by zoomoccu Oct 30, 2014 12:40 PM
    aurorainsider aurorainsider Oct 30, 2014 2:06 PM Flag

    Additional observation: someone just put a 200k share order in at $1.42. Funny. Value poachers have arrived. Also, the volume is somewhat muted with only 2 hours left in comparison to other earnings disappointments. Heck, we did almost 1.6 mil shares following Q1. Perhaps sellers are beginning to dry up?

  • Reply to

    Observations

    by zoomoccu Oct 30, 2014 12:40 PM
    aurorainsider aurorainsider Oct 30, 2014 1:21 PM Flag

    I agree with your observations about Gilbert. He still seems utterly lost when trying to discuss Kentrox. I do however believe that CSI will be just fine. Also, I do not see Cove Street adding any money here. They have quite a bit of negative exposure here, so I would be shocked if they added. I do however see them putting some pressure on the board. Go on their website and read the article that is posted about "unintended consequences" and you will see why I say this.

    Additional observations:
    Enterprise value is now below what they just paid for CSI a few months ago. Some valuation disconnect
    The GAAP losses are not having a material impact on the cash position.
    No real international traction for other products since they bought Kentrox, why not?

  • Reply to

    There you have it - Google the rest

    by kl3_xx Oct 29, 2014 4:16 PM
    aurorainsider aurorainsider Oct 30, 2014 9:28 AM Flag

    We will see how forward looking the market really is with this segment. We saw a downturn in this sector 5 last Spring/early summer. If the Capex does return, you would think the market should start reflecting it soon as expectations begin to ramp back up. Now for the call .

  • Reply to

    Tops Q2 EPS by 1c

    by ugecan99 Oct 30, 2014 8:49 AM
    aurorainsider aurorainsider Oct 30, 2014 9:10 AM Flag

    You might want to remove this post. GAAP estimate was for (.04) and non GAAP was for (0). They missed by 3 cents on both estimates. The Google finance feeds that you must be using are often wrong

    Again, I think the Street was expecting this report. I saw Bof A downgraded Commscope yesterday.

  • Reply to

    Predictions on earnings today?

    by ohjim1221 Oct 29, 2014 1:18 PM
    aurorainsider aurorainsider Oct 29, 2014 7:15 PM Flag

    I think they give him until mid way through Q4. Provided carrier spending comes back, the board will assess progress on DAS growth and ISM sales. Should these two items not both be healthy, then I think they sack him before the Q4 call in May. That is if he foes not "retire" before.

  • Reply to

    Predictions on earnings today?

    by ohjim1221 Oct 29, 2014 1:18 PM
    aurorainsider aurorainsider Oct 29, 2014 5:55 PM Flag

    Stefan. I have to admit that I am very disappointed and I have to give credit to the bashers here. They called this one correctly. However, based on the muted exodus and price move after hours, it tells me that the earnings miss most likely was not unexpected by the Street. Just unexpected by some of us longs. None the less, this is dead money until next May with the Q4 earnings call given the fact that Q3 is all but written off by management's statements.

    Speaking of write offs. This impairment charge of 10 mil towards Kentrox at least gets this issue out of the way once and for all. Again it looks like I have to admit that all of the WTT posters that lamented the "icorp" acquisition were spot on. It is quite fascinating to see the impairment charge while the CEO is giving mixed given comments towards "progress" with ISM.

    The lone positive is the fact that the loss of .08 sans the impairment charge did not eat into an operational cash as the cash position moved up to $0.80/share. I hope that Jeffrey Bronchick is on the call tomorrow to provide some well needed badgering to management. He has 6 million reasons to be on the call.

  • Reply to

    Predictions on earnings today?

    by ohjim1221 Oct 29, 2014 1:18 PM
    aurorainsider aurorainsider Oct 29, 2014 2:28 PM Flag

    Last quarter saw lower TMA sales due to previous Q pull through. So you would expect that TMA numbers are a tiny bit better. The " 4 small order" comment from Gilbert leads me to think that we will see an ever so slight rise in ISM sales as well. Assuming DAS remained constant then I think we see 14.5 from DASIBW and 15.5 from CSG for a 30 total. GAAP (.02). Non GAAP .02

  • aurorainsider by aurorainsider Oct 24, 2014 7:09 PM Flag

    A bit of short covering going into earnings with the latest short interest stats going down. Based on the trade volume, no one is taking any new positions prior to earnings. Selling at $0.45 per dollar of revenues, any decent uptick in revenues should bring a nice uptick in price and volume. Hard to imagine much downside from this price point but I guess anything is possible with Gilbert's historical lack of transparency on future revenues. However, You have to think that if numbers were bad and/or guidance was bad, Gilbert's job would be at risk and the board would not have allowed him to choose the VP of sales.

  • Reply to

    T , Telstra and Capex

    by aurorainsider Oct 23, 2014 10:48 AM
    aurorainsider aurorainsider Oct 23, 2014 1:21 PM Flag

    Fat... You make some good points. Eventually the spend cycle for Kentrox will return. So you are right, mgmnt. needs to articulate the strategy for calendar year 2015 in maximizing cross selling opportunities. One of the key benefits discussed with the Kentrox acquisition was the international footprint. So what is the progress to date? What is the strategy going forward? You have DAS, TMA, enclosures that all must see some exUS penetration. Gilbert indicated difficulties in uptake outside of US through direct sales. O'K then, what has mgmnt done to engage distributors? What is the plan going forward? What is mngmt doing to squeeze costs out of the company? How much longer will we see the R&D spend outpace the industry by 2X? What is the tangible result of this high spend?

    These are the types of discussion points that need to be addressed.

  • Reply to

    T , Telstra and Capex

    by aurorainsider Oct 23, 2014 10:48 AM
    aurorainsider aurorainsider Oct 23, 2014 11:17 AM Flag

    Stefan...what is your agenda?? You obviously don't believe in the company by your posts. So why do you post here? Do you even own Westell stock? Are you trying to perform a public service? When I did not believe in a company's long term investment prospects, I move on. But for some reason you continue to post here?? What are your thoughts on the products, the market opportunity, the acquisition targets? While I have made no secret of my displeasure of Gilbert, it is far to easy to bash management without doing homework on the opportunity.

  • Reply to

    T , Telstra and Capex

    by aurorainsider Oct 23, 2014 10:48 AM
    aurorainsider aurorainsider Oct 23, 2014 11:06 AM Flag

    Posted just yesterday regarding Australian situation:

    NBN Co CEO Bill Morrow is still optimistic that the company will wrap up negotiations with Telstra over access to its copper lines for fibre to the node before the end of 2014.

    "The talks with Telstra are on the home stretch and things are in good shape with Optus," Morrow told journalists in a results call with journalists on Thursday.

    "Quite obviously, any deal needs to be ratified by the government and needs to receive the seal of approval from the ACCC. I'm confident this is going to proceed in a reasonable time frame."

    The renegotiations of the AU$11 billion deal with Telstra to allow NBN Co to instead access Telstra's copper lines and hybrid fibre-coaxial (HFC) network as part of NBN Co's new multi-technology mix model that moves away from fibre to the premises was originally expected to be finished by the middle of 2014. Telstra CEO David Thodey recently reportedly said that the negotiations could extend beyond this year, but Morrow said it is likely to be finished before then.

    "I don't think this is an issue that extends into next year. The issues we're dealing with right now are more language oriented than they are in terms of materiality," he said.

  • aurorainsider by aurorainsider Oct 23, 2014 10:48 AM Flag

    T spent $5.2 bil. in Q3 and confirmed the full year spend of $21 +/-. So, yes the Capex should not be used as any excuse.

    There has been some interesting developments in Australia. As many of you know, the Australian government created an aggressive broadband rollout under the NBN heading in 2011. It was in 2011 that its main supplier TelstraTelstra negotiated the multi year agreement to build the network. It was also at this time that Kentrox was awarded a fairly nice contract as well. Last December, the newly elected government commissioned a study to examine the NBN rollout andheaded by Michael Vertigan. The Vertigan report as it has been named just was released this month. While it identified major changes to the planned rollout, there has not been a political appetite to changechange course of the NBN rollout. Instead there is ongoing discussions with Telstra to renegotiate the term of the contract. Why am I telling you all this. Well as this Vertigan report was completed and the politicians have decided to move forward with the NBN rollout, Westell should begin seeing a ramp up in this business again. It may take Telstra until early 2015 to sort out its terms, but the huge delays in the project look to be coming to an end. And this is good news for Westell ISM

  • Reply to

    Verizon wireless capex

    by aurorainsider Oct 21, 2014 12:39 PM
    aurorainsider aurorainsider Oct 22, 2014 10:08 AM Flag

    Let's see what T has to say tonight regarding Capex.

    Almost 40 minutes into trading and not one trade! C'mon MKT maker

  • Reply to

    Verizon wireless capex

    by aurorainsider Oct 21, 2014 12:39 PM
    aurorainsider aurorainsider Oct 21, 2014 1:21 PM Flag

    I agree. There has to be evidence that management is willing to do what it takes to turn a profit. Take for example the R&D spend. They are currently spending about 16% of revenues while competitors like WTT &COMM are only spending 8-10%. That is an extra $0.10-$0.13/ share in earnings. They need to be more efficient.

  • aurorainsider by aurorainsider Oct 21, 2014 12:39 PM Flag

    This was taken from Verizon's earning release today:
    Capital expenditures totaled $12.6 billion through the first nine months of 2014, up 6.9 percent year over year. Verizon projects capital spending of around $17 billion for full-year 2014, with consistent wireless capital spending throughout the year to stay ahead of customer demand by adding capacity to optimize the company's 4G LTE network.

  • aurorainsider by aurorainsider Oct 16, 2014 9:01 PM Flag

    Spending by telcos in wireless has been tepid with greater expectations for a rebound in 2015 according to Jefferies. They also had this to add with respect to Verizon: The report, citing unnamed sources in the industry, said that Verizon "seems to be a much smaller point of conversation" among the contacts the analysts reached out to. "Anecdotally, our industry contacts also support the notion that Verizon remains consistent about capital investments in their business," they wrote. "On the wireless side of the network, they're continuing the transition from a coverage-focused LTE build to a capacity-focused deployment. Our contacts noted that Verizon is also doing a lot of DAS work right now--spending there is very aggressive right now.".

  • Reply to

    Westell

    by ugecan99 Oct 13, 2014 10:09 AM
    aurorainsider aurorainsider Oct 15, 2014 5:32 PM Flag

    The Adtran information should be a positive for Westell. U.S. centric business with a solid balance sheet. ^RUT had an interesting day. Let's see how Westell and ^RUT perform tomorrow with what looks like will be Netflix/momentum stocks sell off.

  • Reply to

    Westell

    by ugecan99 Oct 13, 2014 10:09 AM
    aurorainsider aurorainsider Oct 15, 2014 1:44 PM Flag

    Phenn . Noticing some blocks going out at 1.62-64 on a volume spike that started around 12:30 pm. Its hard to believe that we will stay green given today's market.

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