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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

aurorainsider 306 posts  |  Last Activity: 7 hours ago Member since: May 8, 1998
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  • Reply to

    No new contracts for kentrox in 3 months

    by mafioa7 Jul 11, 2014 11:28 AM
    aurorainsider aurorainsider 7 hours ago Flag

    The lone analyst took a conservative view for the full year after last quarter's disconnect. Take a look how he flatlined his model. While they may be light on revenue, I think k the quarter's Opex is about a million high in his model based on Westell/Kentrox trends and based on CSI run rates.. So I still expect $.01 for the quarter.

    Also, CSI had 50% marginsmargins (from 8K) on $38M revenues last year with $8 M in Opex. If they do $48 this year and you bump Opex to $11M for that subsidiary, you get $13 M in profit or over $.0.20 in profit per share. If you get any stabilization in Kentrox, then $0.25 - $0.30/ share is very attainable for this year, while the lone analyst has a $0.12 target

  • Reply to

    Short Interest At 2,479,517

    by phennes591 Jul 10, 2014 5:34 PM
    aurorainsider aurorainsider Jul 11, 2014 10:27 AM Flag

    Yes, it looks like the Hedgies are pouncing which means this probably needs to play out.
    I saw a program on the Galleon hedge fund and was absolutely amazed on just how rampant the insider information flies around among some of these institutional shorts.

  • aurorainsider aurorainsider Jul 10, 2014 12:42 PM Flag

    My guess is the initial contact came through Naveed Bandukwala. Both are graduates of the Univ of Chicago Booth and in his position, I could easily see Bandukwala reaching out to him that is if he didn't already know him

  • aurorainsider aurorainsider Jul 9, 2014 9:44 PM Flag

    The addition of Abid could actually prove to be pretty big for Westell. Remember that Google is looking to make broadband ubiquitous. One of the reasons in buying Titan Aerospace was to try to network lesser developed parts of the world. Additionally they took out a small start up, Alpental TechnologiesTechnologies, that is working on some interesting 5G technologies. The wireless technologies at Westell are a perfect fit to help Google achieve some long term objectives with their broadband initiative, particularly in the lesser developed parts of the world where laying Google fiber is cost prohibitive. Even if Westell does not eventually become a target, they will have a good perspective on the market.

    Typically, an acting senior manager needs to get corporate blessing to sit on another company's board. The fact that Google blessed this appointment tells me that there may be just a bit more behind this announcement. It is one thing to sit on a board of a company in an unrelated field, but in this case Abid is actively involved in the same industry. Also, the SEC filing references Avid sitting on the board of Mindspring before it was acquired. Now why mention this fact in an SEC filing? Ha?

  • aurorainsider aurorainsider Jul 9, 2014 1:30 PM Flag

    Yes, interesting announcement, particularly this part: Mr. Adib is currently the Global Head of Telecom Partnerships at Google Inc. It will be helpful to have someone who has the pulse of one of the world's leading tech companies.

  • Reply to

    investcorp ripped off both WTT & WSTL

    by dreago27 Jul 8, 2014 10:08 AM
    aurorainsider aurorainsider Jul 8, 2014 1:22 PM Flag

    Ah! Now it makes sense. Investcorp has a couple of people sitting on the board of Cremona's new company, so obviously he was recruited by Investcorp to run this new entity.

  • Reply to

    investcorp ripped off both WTT & WSTL

    by dreago27 Jul 8, 2014 10:08 AM
    aurorainsider aurorainsider Jul 8, 2014 1:10 PM Flag

    The RSU's and options that Cremona received will be left on the table since he left of his own accord to become a CEO of another company. I just think that he wanted to be the boss and hit one more home run before retiring

  • Reply to

    Cremona out

    by aurorainsider Jul 7, 2014 7:24 PM
    aurorainsider aurorainsider Jul 8, 2014 12:41 PM Flag

    You are correct, this has obviously been in the works for a while and he just waited for his vesting of a 25% position before announcing his departure. This is actually the best possible scenario given this news A guy like Cremona obviously doesn't want to play in the sandbox unless he runs it, so I can't blame him for leaving to become a CEO. He most likely got a package that made him whole on the shares that he left on the table with Westell. The volume is ultra low today, so given the market sell off over the past two days, this departure is a non event. He is not going to a compoetitorcompoetitor so there is no exposure. I trust that there are other competent leaders from Kentrox to pick up the pieces.

  • Reply to

    Cremona out

    by aurorainsider Jul 7, 2014 7:24 PM
    aurorainsider aurorainsider Jul 7, 2014 9:19 PM Flag

    Why would Cremona leave 230,000 grant shares and 90,000 options at a $2.44 strike??? Possible reasons: Reason 1: Cremona got a better deal somewhere else . Reason 2: He doesn't believe there is much upside to share price over the next three years of vesting to make it worth his wait Reason 3: Continued poor performance at Kentrox forced Gilbert's hand to get rid of himhim. Things that make you go....hmmmm??

  • aurorainsider by aurorainsider Jul 7, 2014 7:24 PM Flag

    I just saw the filing on Cremona's resignation. Typically someone at his level would have a non compete in place precluding him from going elsewhere in the industry. Well at least the company will save a half million in bottom line cost. However it does raise some questions. I am not aware of his personal contract details related to the Kentrox acquisition, but I would assume as CEO there was some sort of compensation related to a minimum stay( at least one year) post buyout. On the flip side, it does cause one to speculate whether or not the recent Kentrox performance had anything to do with this departure.

  • Reply to

    Good DAS Article On MSR Mobile Sports Report

    by phennes591 Jul 7, 2014 9:00 AM
    aurorainsider aurorainsider Jul 7, 2014 11:00 AM Flag

    I am interested to see how this translates into Westell and CSI sales. I'm thinking that we need $19 & $11 respectively to hit that $34 lone analyst target ( which would be greater than 50% growth YoY)

  • Reply to

    Good DAS Article On MSR Mobile Sports Report

    by phennes591 Jul 7, 2014 9:00 AM
    aurorainsider aurorainsider Jul 7, 2014 10:29 AM Flag

    Thanks. Nice read

  • Reply to

    Short Interest Stats

    by aurorainsider Jul 1, 2014 11:22 AM
    aurorainsider aurorainsider Jul 1, 2014 12:53 PM Flag

    With respect to Westell, you had the perfect storm for a downdraft. First, the Small caps saw a money flow reversal. Next, the telco comps all saw compression in their metrics, leading to a fairly swift price compression. Then you add in a disappointment in Kentrox, even though the company saw a record in revenues. By mid May, most of the funds could then determine the likely Russell 2000 changes based on MKT cap, even though the announcement would not come for a month. This confluence of events essentially left this stock defenseless and a perfect target for the shorts.

    Now with this behind the stock, the fundamentals indeed come into play. So with an anticipation of 40% plus growth, over $50 mil in cash with no debt, a $40 mil tax loss benefit and a growing position in a high growth market, one would have to think that these fundamentals will push the stock significantly higher over the next 12 months. Outside of company fundamentals, if you get some shift back to growth plays and some M&A in this space, you could get a price compression reversal leading valuations back to 1.5 timestimes forward (fiscal 2016)rerevenues less cash.

  • aurorainsider by aurorainsider Jul 1, 2014 11:22 AM Flag

    I see that the short interest through mid June had quite a tick up, moving over 1.5 mil shares with 6 days to cover. It should be interesting to see what kind of covering we will see in spite of the 10% move since last week and with earnings looming. On a side note, it was interesting to learn thatthat the Russell 2000 deletions have actually outperformed the both the additions and the index in the first 12 months after the rebalancing, based on data compiled over several years

  • Reply to

    What a trade at the bell

    by db20091951 Jun 27, 2014 4:12 PM
    aurorainsider aurorainsider Jun 27, 2014 4:45 PM Flag

    Yep. That was a load of shares to match up. Now let's see if the selling pressure is behind us.

  • Reply to

    Accumulation on the close

    by aurorainsider Jun 19, 2014 11:17 AM
    aurorainsider aurorainsider Jun 24, 2014 4:34 PM Flag

    Well that would account for these large blocks exchanging hands in an orderly fashion at market close/open. Still selling under book value. I still think we move up in July prior to earnings.

  • Reply to

    Accumulation on the close

    by aurorainsider Jun 19, 2014 11:17 AM
    aurorainsider aurorainsider Jun 20, 2014 11:01 AM Flag

    Yep, I did a double take too when I saw that. Im curious to see if we get that same buy on close again today. I get the sense that unless they disappoint in Q1, the funds will chase this stock for the second half of the year to find performance. It would not surprise me to see volume and price pick up in July leading into earnings.

  • Reply to

    Accumulation on the close

    by aurorainsider Jun 19, 2014 11:17 AM
    aurorainsider aurorainsider Jun 19, 2014 4:04 PM Flag

    Another repeat today. 60,000 shares traded in the last 3 minutes. Someone is getting in and keeping it down while they do. With Q2 coming to a close, it should be interesting to see if they will begin to chase the under performers to make their books a look good in Q3&4?

  • aurorainsider by aurorainsider Jun 19, 2014 11:17 AM Flag

    There have been some interesting large block orders at the close over the last few days. It appears as though the price is being managed during the day for this buyer to stake a position. We'll see what happens today.

  • Reply to

    Company Stock Buyback???

    by phennes591 May 29, 2014 4:26 PM
    aurorainsider aurorainsider Jun 18, 2014 11:37 AM Flag

    I had always believed a takeover to be the end game. However, Gilbert made that interesting comment about short term versus long term on the last CC when asked about double digit ebitda.. Something to the effect that" we are trying to build long term value" leaving me the impression that they think they can go it as a stand alone. They do need to get it to $200 and then we may see the type of margins to sustain double digit ebitda that we certainly gain outside interest

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