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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

aurorainsider 19 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 6, 2015 9:28 AM Member since: May 8, 1998
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  • aurorainsider aurorainsider Oct 6, 2015 9:28 AM Flag

    Well said. I worked several years in the molecular diagnostics space in both sales and marketing. A few months ago, I watched in disbelief when several of the analysts began to address what they believed was the total available market (TAM). Anyone who has done real marketing knows that the TAM does not correlate to the actual market. Many people underestimate the stranglehold that the "professional" component has on behavior (reimbursement) . If you are a doctor that makes a living on doing colonoscopies, are you really going to recommend a test that replaces your income? The doctor controls the testing regimine, not industry. Marketing folks, and in this case Wallstreet, often overestimate the TRUE available market. I believe you will see this fact playout over time and be reflected in the actual revenue ramp.

  • Reply to

    Northland --- that was Quick

    by aurorainsider Sep 28, 2015 8:40 AM
    aurorainsider aurorainsider Sep 29, 2015 9:18 AM Flag

    I take it that you are not a fan of Grunewald??

    I think that he has done a good job so far. Gilbert had allowed the sales team to dwindle down to a virtual skeleton. It's kind of hard to sell products without people in front of the customer. Do you think?

  • Reply to

    Northland --- that was Quick

    by aurorainsider Sep 28, 2015 8:40 AM
    aurorainsider aurorainsider Sep 28, 2015 6:48 PM Flag

    The rating references a win for OSP at a tier 1 supplier and OSP upside in other areas. Stabilized spending at AT&T. Raising revenue guidance for next fiscal year back over $100 M. Revenue guidance in Q3(Dec.) of approximately $21 up from $14 and Clear link sales beginning in light of the shortfalls with previous management, this report does not get issued without heavy discussions with the new management team signalling renewed growth.

  • aurorainsider by aurorainsider Sep 28, 2015 8:40 AM Flag

    Northland comes out with a reiteration of Outperform and bumps the price target up to $2.50 this morning

  • Reply to

    Goodrich resignation

    by aurorainsider Sep 25, 2015 7:55 PM
    aurorainsider aurorainsider Sep 26, 2015 10:37 AM Flag

    I don't care about the current RSU/option position. Does anyone know what the percent ownership that Goodrich had with CSI. If he held a 25% stake, then he made a nice $10 mil on the deal. My guess is that as founder, he did very well, certainly much better than any potential payoff by sticking around for another few years.

  • Reply to

    Goodrich resignation

    by aurorainsider Sep 25, 2015 7:55 PM
    aurorainsider aurorainsider Sep 26, 2015 7:39 AM Flag

    Since he was the founder of CSI, does anyone know what percent of the company he owned? If he made a bundle through the acquisition, he may simply just be calling it a day. The verbiage in the press release and the consulting arrangement point to a much more muted reason for his departure than his performance or the company's future.

  • aurorainsider by aurorainsider Sep 25, 2015 7:55 PM Flag

    Ah, always late on a Friday to mitigate the impact. So now, either IBW is heading south.... Or.....Goodrich's lockup from the acquisition finally ran its course. My guess is the later based on the overt acknowledgement of the consulting arrangement and based on Goodrich providing a quote for the press release.

    Never a dull moment with management here lately.

  • aurorainsider aurorainsider Sep 18, 2015 4:07 PM Flag

    Someone placed a 200K share bet on this puppy right before the close. Perhaps an attendee from the investor conference last week?

  • aurorainsider aurorainsider Sep 16, 2015 5:41 PM Flag

    I think that it had more to do with the shelf registration hitting the tickers

  • aurorainsider by aurorainsider Sep 1, 2015 6:38 PM Flag

    Interesting call out of the Connect America Fund (CAF) in today's press release. I believe that phase 2 funds are now being deployed and will be for several years. AT&T and Century linklink( both Westell customers) have a big footprint in the rural areasareas for such a deployment. Since he threw it out there, Grunewald will need to discuss on the Q2 call.

    Interested to hear if any posters have some more visibility to this book of business underwritten by the Feds. ??

  • aurorainsider by aurorainsider Aug 21, 2015 7:19 PM Flag

    As I sometimes disagree with Phenne, I find his comments about WSTL share supply spot on. Westell actually weathered a broad based selloff with a flat to slightly up week. I am looking at this stock as beyond ready for a rebound. I too have been adding the last few weeks and believe that we will see a nicei move between now and the Spring. I am encouraged by the focus back on ISM. Many have written that segment off but clearly the story is not over.

  • Reply to

    Westell Short Interest At 70,940 Shares

    by phennes591 Aug 12, 2015 9:13 AM
    aurorainsider aurorainsider Aug 13, 2015 7:07 AM Flag

    Nice point on the loose lips. I just wonder if the ex Kentrox people may have indicated a fall off in that business when they left. However, I believe that a good portion of the loose lips may have actually come from the Big telcos signalling a slow down in CAPEX.

    Let's face it. This was a rather stunning reduction in CAPEX over the last 12 months. We have probably already seen that bottom of this cycle, so it makes sense that the short interest stands at its current levels. The questions for Westell really are: how fast does CAPEX return? How much of CAPEX is assigned to Westell's portion of the market. How many new customers does Westell gain at home and abroad. How well and how quickly do the new products penpenetrate the market?

  • Nortland's new report ups both the quarterly($1.9M) and annual revenue($3.7M) targets. Holds the price target to $2.25 selling at a multiple discount on EV and book to its peer group.

  • aurorainsider by aurorainsider Jul 30, 2015 8:42 AM Flag

    The new CEO has managed to begin turning the boat around. Nice work on margins and top line traction. He has beefed up the defunct sales team and those efforts are paying off. I noticed that the R&D spend was at a record level as well. If he chooses to taper those investments back to 10-12% of sales, then the company turns profitable. I suspect we will see this accelerated investment until a couple of these new products begin to show a sales ramp. Until then, the company will eat minimal cash and position itself handsomely for the return in wireless CAPEX. The stock price should begin to reflect this change in momentum which took a downshift in Spring 2014. It should be an interesting next 12 months. I wouldn't be surprised to see the price accelerate going into the end of the year. I suspect our lone analyst bumps the target price up modestly to $2.50-$2.70

  • aurorainsider by aurorainsider Jul 28, 2015 10:58 PM Flag

    COMM scope up 4% on the day. Without mentioning names, it was clear that AT&T is stingy on its wireless spend. If stocks are always forward looking, consider Commscopes move today and consider this which Also came from their prepared comments portion:
    As previously highlighted, we continue to believe the North American wireless carrier spending will modestly strengthen as the year progresses. As we’ve noted many times, our quarter-to-quarter wireless business can be lumpy. However, we believe continued global investment in LTE coverage and capacity over license spectrum, will remain a strategic initiative for wireless operators over the long-term. As a result, we remain confident in our long-term growth prospects.

    Management also indicated more normalized wireless spending patterns in 2016.

  • aurorainsider by aurorainsider Jul 28, 2015 9:04 AM Flag

    Commscope came out with earnings today. Substantially lower spending by NAmer wireless carriers in first half of the year. No commentary yet on forward spending. So clearly don't expect any upside at WSTL. It appears as though AT&T continues to drag its feet. You can see the expectations reflected in share prices of other small players like WTT and PCTI .

  • Reply to

    Verizon Wireless Cap Ex, DAS and Small Cell

    by phennes591 Jul 22, 2015 9:24 AM
    aurorainsider aurorainsider Jul 22, 2015 3:16 PM Flag

    Agreed. Well said

  • Reply to

    Verizon Wireless Cap Ex, DAS and Small Cell

    by phennes591 Jul 22, 2015 9:24 AM
    aurorainsider aurorainsider Jul 22, 2015 10:39 AM Flag

    While Verizon numbers are a good thing, Westell's issue is really that AT&T is NOT a 10% customer. AT&T has reportedly taken a different approach to its spend that may impact the prioritization of projects. The fact that they were not even a 10% customer really shows the lack of focus on the smaller projects. Westell will continue to languish unless AT&T ups their spend.

  • Reply to

    Verizon Wireless Cap Ex, DAS and Small Cell

    by phennes591 Jul 22, 2015 9:24 AM
    aurorainsider aurorainsider Jul 22, 2015 9:51 AM Flag

    At this point, the company has to start showing evidence of returned growth. All of the speculation about the market dynamics is irrelevant until the company delivers. To see $5000 trade hands yesterday in trading is just mind boggling. I have never seen a volume that low. Simply no interest until the company delivers, period!

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