It is tough for new money to commit to a position. Westell stock trades up at the same percent as the Nasdaq, but on down days its sheds 2-3 times what the Nasdaq does. So the market maker is not sending a signal conducive to adding to a position. The risk reward is now at an imbalance
The Nasdaq is setting up for that 10-15% correction ( half way there) from that 4357 closing high. However, Westell is already over 26% down from its closing high of 4.57 a few weeks agoago the same day that the Nasdaq peaked. The downside moves have been on less than average volumes, so until I see a reversal on high volume, I am holding off on committing any more money.
Here are the facts:
Sold @ $1.96 on 12/13/12
Sold @ $2.03 on 4/4/13
So!d @ $2.37 on 6/12/13
Sold @ $3.90 on 12/13/13
Sold @ $3.85 on 4/4/14
Hardly the highs and part of an automatic sales plan from his trust. Next???
Little to no volume until they took it down to the low 3.20's. Technically, the share price broke below the 200 day moving average. Everything points toto an oversold condition again, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Nasdaq test 3800 (12.5% correction from its closing high) or lower. If the Nasdaq goes down another 5% from these levels, I wouldn't be surprised to see WSTL go down 10-20% from these levels retesting last summer's levels. A one month sell off on low volumes erasing 9 months of gains. Hang on for more wild swings.
I just noticed that Westell options have shown up on several trading sites at 2.50, 5 and 7. There are no open interests listed. There are asks but no bids. I have checked in the past for WSTL options and have not found them. Is this a recent development???
In fairness to senior management, I don't think that there is much that any management team could do in the wake of a market sell off. The entire growth sector of the Nasdaq has just gotten hammered with no exception
I do however agree with you that management could do more in the way of Wallstreet by involving themselves with more noteworthy investment houses. This would raise its profile and certainly attract more interest. The job of any management team is to bring value to the stock. A great business with an undervalued stock does nothing for shareholders. I get that you want to spend your time running the business as a CEO. But there comes a time in the business cycle when the business has turned to the upside. This is precisely when the CEO needs to get that word out. If WSTL is not quite at that point today, it is awfully close.
Funny about IBD. Accumulation??? The stock has traded 42k shares with 90 minutes of trading left. We haven't seen volume this low since late last summer before it began its big move to the upside
Actually, Tom (CFO) is a very experienced finance guy. He is also very approachable but obviously you have never picked up the phone to have a conversation with him. After all, he is the Investor Relations front man. Instead of hiding behind your post, why don't you talk to management if you have concerns. Also if you look at the controller's exercises, you will see that they are all options. I don't know about your options where you work, but before my company went to RSUs, my options had a finite expiration date. Her monthly sales have been to exercise options. Funny, I didn't see the CFO selling any RSUs.
So do yourself a favor. Talk to senior management. If you don't like the answers that you are hearing, you are free to sell your shares. Life is too short
I believe that the real issue here is the product cost structure. Having worked in the industry for many years, it was fairly common talk that Cephied just couldn't drive the costs down on those cartridges enough to really turn a big profit. If it had a reasonable cost structure, it probably would have been bought by a big player. After all, Bishop previously solid Vysis, so he was obviously not opposed to an acquisition and let's face it, he isn't getting any younger.
Additionally, the niche that Cephied serves is now being closed in on by other players. Unfortunately, this means that the product ASPs will only get more pressure over the next few years. With its cost structure, this does note bode well for the company. On the flip side, Cephied instruments lack scale to compete in the mid to high volume labs, so as other players encroach on their turf, I can only see erosion over time. It may not happen this fiscal year, but it will happen with more market entrants
I noticed a sharp uptick in volume at the end of each of the last few days on the buy side. Someone is managing a new/increase position in the stock. We should now be within the 20 trading days of earning, so it will be interesting to see if we close that $4 mark prior to earnings.
The Nasdaq looks good for tomorrow. Perhaps we can make a run and test those shorts. I would like nothing better than for Gilbert to give some guidance for fiscal 2015 with something like: " We see revenue growth of at least 75% and feel that $200 mil. in revenues is within reach." If that headline hit the wires, we would skewer the shorts.
Volume continues to languish. No large holders are looking to exit. I guess who would at this price? On the flip side, there are no buyers either. There is just little to no interest to get in. Fair or not, Westell is being grouped with the momentum stocks and is adrift pending some more earnings news. Management will need to show strong evidence of earnings growth to match that revenue growth.
Better volume and she was flat/up for day. Maybe we will get a second flush next week?? I see you were looking at AAPL. She held up well today. I have my eye on GOOG. She looks like she wants to test 500. Could be a good buy.
I reported these stock scam guy(s) to a friend at yahoo. Hopefully we can get rid of this garbage from the site. It is as annoying as that guy I put on ignore(wttass something or other), only you can't ignore this garbage because it keeps showing up under newly created poster IDs
With all of the talk of "rotation", is Westell a growth or value stock?
No debt and selling at 1.48 X's book and 15 x's next year's earnings. Yet revenues growing at 70-100% over the next fiscal year, potentially doubling the earnings for the following year.
You could be right on the weather thing. Speaking of CC, we are due an earnings release date. Still trading on light volume. We probably need to get within 5-10 trading days of earnings before we see any uptick. At this point with Kentrox momentum and the new CSI business, I would be shocked if we didn't see 80-100% growth in Q1 (June quarter). Perhaps management needs to break from their habit of not providing forward guidance??